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Borussia Mönchengladbach crestBorussia Mönchengladbach
v
FSV Mainz 05 crestFSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga | Sat 19 Sep, 14:30

Borussia Mönchengladbach v FSV Mainz 05 Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach face FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga on Sat 19 Sep, 14:30. Borussia Mönchengladbach come in with 0 recent points and 1 goals per match, while FSV Mainz 05 have 4 points and 2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

FSV Mainz 05 to Win

  • At 2.2, FSV Mainz 05 to Win implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 61%.
  • FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
  • FSV Mainz 05 have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the FSV Mainz 05 to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach sit 17 in the table, while FSV Mainz 05 sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 61% for FSV Mainz 05 to Win sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Model chance vs price61% model chance against roughly 46% implied
Strong positive
FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking.Visible data support
Positive
FSV Mainz 05 have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: FSV Mainz 05 Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

FSV Mainz 05 to Win evidence

FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

FSV Mainz 05 have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the FSV Mainz 05 Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Borussia Mönchengladbach sit 17 in the table, while FSV Mainz 05 sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

FSV Mainz 05 to Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Borussia Mönchengladbach7
    Avg corners for
    FSV Mainz 056.67
    Borussia Mönchengladbach12.67
    Avg total corners
    FSV Mainz 0510.33
    Borussia Mönchengladbach2.33
    Avg yellow cards
    FSV Mainz 051.33
    Borussia Mönchengladbach15
    Avg shots
    FSV Mainz 0518.67
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Borussia Mönchengladbach1
    Avg goals scored
    FSV Mainz 052
    Borussia Mönchengladbach4
    Avg goals conceded
    FSV Mainz 051
    Borussia Mönchengladbach33%
    BTTS rate
    FSV Mainz 0533%
    Borussia Mönchengladbach100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    FSV Mainz 0567%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +8.9 pts
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFSV Mainz 05 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    FSV Mainz 05 to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Borussia Mönchengladbach

    LLL
    Last 50W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 3L
    12 Sep 2026A SC Freiburg0-5
    05 Sep 2026H SV Elversberg3-4
    29 Aug 2026A RB Leipzig0-3

    FSV Mainz 05

    LWD
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    12 Sep 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt1-3
    06 Sep 2026A Hamburger SV5-0
    29 Aug 2026H SC Paderborn 070-0
    Market aligned with main pickFSV Mainz 05 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
    6Draws
    3FSV Mainz 05 wins
    19 Apr 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach v FSV Mainz 051-1
    05 Dec 2025FSV Mainz 05 v Borussia Mönchengladbach0-1
    07 Mar 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach v FSV Mainz 051-3
    25 Oct 2024FSV Mainz 05 v Borussia Mönchengladbach1-1
    02 Mar 2024FSV Mainz 05 v Borussia Monchengladbach1-1
    06 Oct 2023Borussia Monchengladbach v FSV Mainz 052-2
    Market aligned with main pickFSV Mainz 05 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    The head-to-head sample gives context for FSV Mainz 05 to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    Borussia Mönchengladbach3
    Played
    FSV Mainz 053
    Borussia Mönchengladbach1
    Avg goals for
    FSV Mainz 052
    Borussia Mönchengladbach4
    Avg goals against
    FSV Mainz 051
    Borussia Mönchengladbach0
    Clean sheets
    FSV Mainz 052
    Market aligned with main pickFSV Mainz 05 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Season data supports FSV Mainz 05 to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    8FSV Mainz 05431113
    17Borussia Mönchengladbach03003-9
    Borussia Mönchengladbach sit in position 17, while FSV Mainz 05 sit in position 8, so table pressure belongs in the FSV Mainz 05 to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Borussia Mönchengladbach Over 2.5
    67%FSV Mainz 05 Over 2.5
    2.4H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 100% and FSV Mainz 05 sit at 67% with the H2H average at 2.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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