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Ham-Kam crestHam-Kam
v
Aalesund crestAalesund

Eliteserien | Sun 09 Aug, 16:00

Ham-Kam v Aalesund Stats

Data last updated: Sat 08 Aug 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ham-Kam and Aalesund meet in an Eliteserien clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for an open contest. Ham-Kam, positioned mid-table, have shown a willingness to push forward but concede at a rate of two goals per game. Aalesund, struggling near the bottom, average 3.4 goals conceded per match but maintain a potent attack scoring 1.6 goals on average. Both sides have recorded an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a high-scoring encounter likely influenced by defensive frailties and offensive ambition.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have an 80% over 2.5 goals match rate this season.
  • Aalesund concedes an average of 3.4 goals per game, the highest between the two.
  • Ham-Kam averages 9.2 shots per game; Aalesund averages 17.5, showing attacking activity.
  • Recent form shows both teams scoring and conceding regularly, supporting goal volume.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 3.1 goals per game, reinforcing the scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 2.5 Goals with a 69.5% probability, supported by both teams' high scoring and conceding rates. Ham-Kam and Aalesund's matches frequently surpass this threshold, driven by offensive pressure and defensive lapses. The head-to-head average of 3.1 goals per game further validates the likelihood of a high-scoring game. No price warnings apply, making this a solid choice based on attacking dynamics and recent trends.

Model Probability69.5% chance of Over 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Team Scoring RatesHam-Kam 1.2, Aalesund 1.6 goals per game
Positive
Defensive RecordsHam-Kam concedes 2, Aalesund concedes 3.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Match Rate80% for both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.1 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both teams pushing forward, given their attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities. The high average goals conceded and recent scoring patterns suggest Over 2.5 Goals is a fitting prediction for this fixture, reflecting the likely tempo and chance creation on both sides.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match goal-scoring outlook

“This fixture features two teams with attacking intent but fragile defenses, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical expectation. The data highlights consistent goal-scoring and conceding patterns that should translate into an entertaining, high-scoring match.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% over 2.5 goals match rate this season.

Aalesund concedes an average of 3.4 goals per game, the highest between the two.

Ham-Kam averages 9.2 shots per game; Aalesund averages 17.5, showing attacking activity.

Recent form shows both teams scoring and conceding regularly, supporting goal volume.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.1, with both teams frequently involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • This trend over a meaningful sample suggests a pattern of open, attacking games with defensive lapses, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring encounter in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Ham-Kam3
Avg corners for
Aalesund7
Ham-Kam8.2
Avg total corners
Aalesund13.5
Ham-Kam1.4
Avg yellow cards
Aalesund1.25
Ham-Kam10
Avg shots
Aalesund18.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Aalesund averages 5.5 corners and 17.5 shots per game, reflecting sustained attacking pressure, while Ham-Kam contributes 3 corners and 9.2 shots, indicating moderate offensive activity. Both teams have similar yellow card averages around 1.4-1.5 per game, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment conducive to open play and set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ham-Kam1.2
Avg goals scored
Aalesund1.6
Ham-Kam2
Avg goals conceded
Aalesund3.4
Ham-Kam40%
BTTS rate
Aalesund100%
Ham-Kam80%
Over 2.5 goals
Aalesund80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 65% · edge +4.1 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Both teams have high scoring and conceding rates, with Ham-Kam scoring 1.2 and conceding 2 goals per game, while Aalesund scores 1.6 but concedes 3.4. Aalesund's 100% BTTS rate and Ham-Kam's 40% indicate a strong chance of goals at both ends, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals expectation through open play and defensive gaps.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 65% · edge +4.1 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Ham-Kam Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Ham-Kam to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Aalesund to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Aalesund Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The Over 2.5 Goals market aligns well with the model's 69.5% probability, indicating a strong likelihood of multiple goals. The absence of price warnings suggests the are reasonable, reflecting the attacking profiles and defensive records of both teams, which supports this market as a sensible choice.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ham-Kam

WLLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
31 Jul 2026A Valerenga3-0
26 Jul 2026A Sarpsborg 08 FF0-1
22 Jul 2026A Bodo/Glimt0-3
18 Jul 2026H Tromso1-4
12 Jul 2026A Sandefjord2-2

Aalesund

LDLDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
02 Aug 2026H Tromso2-6
26 Jul 2026H Viking1-1
16 Jul 2026A Valerenga1-6
11 Jul 2026H Molde2-2
29 May 2026H Ham-Kam2-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 75% · edge +3.5 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Ham-Kam Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Ham-Kam to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Aalesund to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Aalesund Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Recent form data shows both teams frequently involved in high-scoring matches, with Ham-Kam and Aalesund each having an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in their last fixtures. Their goals for and against averages confirm a pattern of open games with multiple goals, supporting the expectation of a lively attacking contest in this match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Ham-Kam wins
5Draws
3Aalesund wins
29 May 2026Aalesund v Ham-Kam2-2
20 May 2025Aalesund v Ham-Kam2-2
13 Aug 2023Aalesund v Ham-Kam0-2
07 Jul 2023Ham-Kam v Aalesund2-1
17 Mar 2023Aalesund v Ham-Kam3-1
16 Oct 2022Aalesund v Ham-Kam0-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 65% · edge +4.1 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Ham-Kam to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Aalesund to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Aalesund over ten matches shows an average of 3.1 goals per game, indicating a history of open contests with multiple goals. While this supports the Over 2.5 Goals pick, the sample size is moderate, so current form and tactical setups remain important factors.
Season team stats

Eliteserien

Ham-Kam15
Played
Aalesund15
Ham-Kam1.5
Avg goals for
Aalesund1.4
Ham-Kam1.7
Avg goals against
Aalesund2.3
Ham-Kam4
Clean sheets
Aalesund0
Best odds for this sectionHam-Kam Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 60% · edge +1.3 pts
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Load more odds for this section
Ham-Kam to WinBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Aalesund to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Aalesund Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Season-long statistics reveal that both teams maintain high goal involvement, with Ham-Kam scoring 1.2 and conceding 2 goals per game, and Aalesund scoring 1.6 while conceding 3.4. These figures underscore defensive vulnerabilities and offensive potency, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical reflection of their season profiles.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Ham-Kam2115636-3
14Aalesund1315276-14
Ham-Kam sits 8th with 21 points, comfortably mid-table, while Aalesund is 14th with 13 points, facing pressure near the relegation zone. This disparity may influence Aalesund to adopt a more attacking approach to secure points, potentially increasing goal-scoring opportunities and supporting the Over 2.5 Goals outlook.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Ham-Kam Over 2.5
80%Aalesund Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.1, with both teams frequently involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals. This trend over a meaningful sample suggests a pattern of open, attacking games with defensive lapses, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring encounter in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

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