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Gubbio crestGubbio
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Ostia Mare crestOstia Mare

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 20 Sep, 19:30

Gubbio v Ostia Mare Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gubbio and Ostia Mare meet in Serie C - Girone B with contrasting recent performances. Gubbio, sitting 10th with 7 points, has shown attacking intent but also defensive vulnerability, averaging 1.8 goals scored and conceded per match. Ostia Mare, 17th with 3 points, has struggled but still contributes to open games, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.6 conceded. Both sides have a history of matches featuring multiple goals, setting the stage for an open encounter where offensive opportunities are likely to arise.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Gubbio averages 1.8 goals scored and conceded per game, indicating open play.
  • Ostia Mare concedes 1.6 goals per match, suggesting defensive frailty.
  • Gubbio’s Over 2.5 Goals rate stands at 80%, showing frequent high-scoring games.
  • Ostia Mare’s Over 2.5 Goals rate is 60%, supporting the likelihood of multiple goals.
  • No head-to-head history, but recent form favors an attacking match.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 70% chance to Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' offensive tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities. Gubbio’s high Over 2.5 rate (80%) combined with Ostia Mare’s openness in defense supports this selection. The current of 2.08 offer positive value with a 21.9% edge, making the bet attractive without significant price risk. Both sides have shown a pattern of matches with multiple goals, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

Gubbio Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive
Ostia Mare Defensive Concession1.6 goals per game
Positive
Model Probability70% chance
Strong positive
Value Edge21.9%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance48.1%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both teams pushing forward, as Gubbio’s attacking style meets Ostia Mare’s defensive vulnerabilities. The data shows a strong trend toward matches exceeding 2.5 goals, supported by Gubbio’s high scoring and conceding rates. This match is likely to produce multiple goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a sensible choice based on form and tactical openness.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive openness

“Gubbio’s aggressive offense combined with Ostia Mare’s porous defense creates a fertile ground for goals. The statistical trends and recent performances strongly suggest this fixture will surpass 2.5 goals, making the Over 2.5 market compelling from both a football and value perspective.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Gubbio averages 1.8 goals scored and conceded per game, indicating open play.

Ostia Mare concedes 1.6 goals per match, suggesting defensive frailty.

Gubbio’s Over 2.5 Goals rate stands at 80%, showing frequent high-scoring games.

Ostia Mare’s Over 2.5 Goals rate is 60%, supporting the likelihood of multiple goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the absence of head-to-head history, recent form trends show Gubbio’s matches have gone Over 2.5 Goals 80% of the time, while Ostia Mare’s matches have done so 60%.
  • This recent sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, with both teams contributing to open, attacking games over the last several fixtures.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gubbio1.8
Avg goals scored
Ostia Mare1
Gubbio1.8
Avg goals conceded
Ostia Mare1.6
Gubbio80%
BTTS rate
Ostia Mare60%
Gubbio80%
Over 2.5 goals
Ostia Mare60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Both teams have shown a tendency for matches with multiple goals and BTTS occurrences, especially Gubbio with an 80% Over 2.5 and BTTS rate. Ostia Mare’s 60% rates also suggest openness. The attacking styles and defensive records point toward a game where goals from both sides are likely, supporting Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS possibilities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
Gubbio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Gubbio to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Ostia Mare Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 2.08 with an implied chance of 48.1%, while the model estimates a 70% probability, indicating clear value. This pricing reflects the market’s underestimation of the attacking potential and defensive lapses from both sides, making the bet a positive-value opportunity without major price sensitivity.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gubbio

DWWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 2L
16 Sep 2026A Pescara1-1
12 Sep 2026H Latina3-1
05 Sep 2026A Campobasso FC4-2
30 Aug 2026H Reggiana1-2
22 Aug 2026A Guidonia Montecelio 19370-3

Ostia Mare

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 4L
16 Sep 2026H Ravenna0-1
13 Sep 2026A Torres2-3
05 Sep 2026A Vis Pesaro2-1
29 Aug 2026H Grosseto1-2
23 Aug 2026A Perugia0-1
Best odds for this sectionGubbio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 59% · edge +14.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Gubbio to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Ostia Mare Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
Ostia Mare to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
Gubbio’s recent form includes 7 points with an average of 1.8 goals scored and conceded per match, reflecting both offensive potency and defensive vulnerability. Ostia Mare has collected 3 points, scoring 1 goal per game but conceding 1.6, indicating defensive issues. These trends suggest a match prone to multiple goals, aligning well with the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Gubbio wins
0Draws
0Ostia Mare wins
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
Gubbio to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
Ostia Mare to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
No previous meetings exist between Gubbio and Ostia Mare to inform this fixture. Therefore, current season form and tactical tendencies provide the primary basis for expectations, emphasizing recent goal-scoring and conceding patterns over historical head-to-head data.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie C - Girone B

Gubbio5
Played
Ostia Mare5
Gubbio1.8
Avg goals for
Ostia Mare1
Gubbio1.8
Avg goals against
Ostia Mare1.6
Gubbio0
Clean sheets
Ostia Mare0
Best odds for this sectionGubbio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 59% · edge +14.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Gubbio to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Ostia Mare Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Ostia Mare to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
Season-long data shows Gubbio averages 1.8 goals for and against per game, highlighting a balance of attack and defensive openness. Ostia Mare’s averages of 1 goal scored and 1.6 conceded per match underline a tendency toward conceding goals. These statistics support the expectation of a high-scoring fixture consistent with Over 2.5 Goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Gubbio752120
17Ostia Mare35104-3
Gubbio’s 10th place standing with 7 points contrasts with Ostia Mare’s 17th place and 3 points, reflecting differing season trajectories. While standings do not dictate goal totals, the pressure on Ostia Mare to improve results may encourage a more open approach, increasing the likelihood of goals in this encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Gubbio Over 2.5
60%Ostia Mare Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In the absence of head-to-head history, recent form trends show Gubbio’s matches have gone Over 2.5 Goals 80% of the time, while Ostia Mare’s matches have done so 60%. This recent sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, with both teams contributing to open, attacking games over the last several fixtures.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Atalanta II v RavennaSerie C - Girone B · Sun 20 Sep 11:30Reggiana v LatinaSerie C - Girone B · Sun 20 Sep 13:30Vado v PescaraSerie C - Girone B · Sun 20 Sep 13:30Campobasso FC v PinetoSerie C - Girone B · Sun 20 Sep 16:30

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