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Grosseto crestGrosseto
v
Perugia crestPerugia

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 20 Sep, 19:30

Grosseto v Perugia Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 19:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Grosseto hosts Perugia in a Serie C - Girone B clash where both teams have shown contrasting defensive and offensive patterns early in the season. Grosseto sits fifth with nine points, demonstrating a solid defensive record conceding less than one goal per game, while Perugia, twelfth with seven points, has struggled defensively, allowing nearly two goals per match. Grosseto's recent form includes three wins from four games, highlighting their home stability and tactical discipline. Perugia's vulnerability at the back and inconsistent scoring suggest Grosseto can leverage their home advantage to secure victory in this contest.

BT4Y best bet

Grosseto to Win

  • Grosseto holds a 59.5% to win, significantly higher than the implied suggest.
  • Grosseto concedes only 0.8 goals per game, indicating strong defensive organization.
  • Perugia's defense has allowed 1.8 goals per game, exposing them to counterattacks.
  • Grosseto has collected 9 points from 4 matches, showing better recent form than Perugia's 7 points.
  • Perugia's high rate of Over 2.5 goals games (80%) contrasts with Grosseto's more controlled matches (40%).

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Grosseto to win with a 59.5% chance, reflecting their superior defensive solidity and better recent form compared to Perugia. Grosseto's ability to limit goals conceded to 0.8 per game contrasts with Perugia's leaky defense, which concedes 1.8 goals on average. Although Perugia's matches often see more goals, Grosseto's tactical discipline and home advantage provide a strong foundation for victory. The current offer positive value given the model's higher probability assessment, making Grosseto a compelling pick for this fixture.

Model Win Probability59.5%
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthGrosseto concedes 0.8 goals per game vs Perugia's 1.8
Strong positive
Recent FormGrosseto 9 points from 4 games, Perugia 7 points
Positive
Goal Concession RiskPerugia's high goals against rate increases Grosseto's chances
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals RatePerugia 80%, Grosseto 40%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Grosseto's disciplined defense and superior recent form make them the likely winners in this Serie C encounter. Their ability to contain Perugia's attack, which has been inconsistent and prone to conceding goals, gives Grosseto a tactical edge and a solid statistical foundation to claim victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Grosseto's defensive resilience and home form create a strong platform against a Perugia side vulnerable at the back, making the home win a logical and data-backed expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Grosseto to Win evidence

Grosseto holds a 59.5% to win, significantly higher than the implied suggest.

Grosseto concedes only 0.8 goals per game, indicating strong defensive organization.

Perugia's defense has allowed 1.8 goals per game, exposing them to counterattacks.

Grosseto has collected 9 points from 4 matches, showing better recent form than Perugia's 7 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Grosseto to Win notes

  • Over the last four matches, Perugia has featured in 80% of games with over 2.5 goals, indicating open, high-tempo encounters.
  • Grosseto's 40% rate shows a more measured approach.
  • This trend suggests the match could see a moderate goal count influenced by Grosseto's defensive control and Perugia's attacking openness.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Grosseto1.4
Avg goals scored
Perugia1
Grosseto0.8
Avg goals conceded
Perugia1.8
Grosseto60%
BTTS rate
Perugia40%
Grosseto40%
Over 2.5 goals
Perugia80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The goal-scoring profile suggests a controlled scoring environment favoring Grosseto. While Perugia's matches often exceed 2.5 goals, Grosseto's lower over 2.5 rate and stronger defense point to fewer goals and a likely scenario where both teams do not score, supporting a more conservative goals market.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGrosseto to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
Grosseto Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The for Grosseto to win are priced attractively at 2.7, reflecting a 37% implied chance, which is well below the model's 59.5% estimate. This significant indicates the market underestimates Grosseto's chances, making the bet a positive value opportunity rather than a price-sensitive watch.

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Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Grosseto

DDWWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 0L
16 Sep 2026H Campobasso FC2-2
12 Sep 2026A Pianese0-0
06 Sep 2026H Torres2-0
29 Aug 2026A Ostia Mare2-1
23 Aug 2026H Spezia1-1

Perugia

LLWDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 2L
16 Sep 2026H Spezia0-3
13 Sep 2026A Ravenna0-3
06 Sep 2026H Pineto2-1
30 Aug 2026A Vis Pesaro2-2
23 Aug 2026H Ostia Mare1-0
Market aligned with main pickGrosseto to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Grosseto Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Grosseto's recent form is superior, with 9 points from 4 matches compared to Perugia's 7 points. This reflects better consistency and momentum, especially defensively, where Grosseto concedes fewer goals, reinforcing their capability to secure a home win in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Grosseto wins
0Draws
0Perugia wins
Market aligned with main pickGrosseto to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
No previous meetings between Grosseto and Perugia exist to provide direct historical context. Therefore, current season form, defensive records, and tactical setups are more relevant indicators for predicting the match outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie C - Girone B

Grosseto6
Played
Perugia6
Grosseto1.5
Avg goals for
Perugia0.8
Grosseto0.7
Avg goals against
Perugia1.8
Grosseto3
Clean sheets
Perugia1
Market aligned with main pickGrosseto to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
Grosseto Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Season-long statistics highlight Grosseto's defensive strength, conceding only 0.8 goals per game, and a moderate scoring rate of 1.4 goals per game. Perugia's higher goals conceded rate of 1.8 per game exposes defensive frailties, supporting Grosseto's advantage in controlling the match tempo and outcome.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Grosseto1263305
14Perugia76213-6
Grosseto's fifth-place standing with 9 points contrasts with Perugia's twelfth place and 7 points, indicating Grosseto's better start and higher league momentum. While standings are early in the season, this gap suggests Grosseto's stronger competitive position and .
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Grosseto Over 2.5
80%Perugia Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last four matches, Perugia has featured in 80% of games with over 2.5 goals, indicating open, high-tempo encounters. Grosseto's 40% rate shows a more measured approach. This trend suggests the match could see a moderate goal count influenced by Grosseto's defensive control and Perugia's attacking openness.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Spezia v Vis PesaroSerie C - Girone B · Mon 21 Sep 19:30Guidonia Montecelio 1937 v LivornoSerie C - Girone B · Mon 21 Sep 19:30Pianese v SambenedetteseSerie C - Girone B · Mon 21 Sep 19:30

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