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Pianese crestPianese
v
Sambenedettese crestSambenedettese

Serie C - Girone B | Mon 21 Sep, 19:30

Pianese v Sambenedettese Stats

Data last updated: Wed 14 Oct 2026, 13:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pianese face Sambenedettese in Serie C - Girone B on Mon 21 Sep, 19:30. Pianese have drawn both home league matches 0-0 this season, making their defensive record at home considerably stronger than their overall position suggests.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Sambenedettese Asian Handicap +1

  • At 1.62, Sambenedettese Asian Handicap +1 implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 56%.
  • A 1-1 draw fits both teams' profiles: Pianese's strong chance creation against Sambenedettese's leaky defence and Sambenedettese's superior scoring ability.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Pianese and 80% for Sambenedettese, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Sambenedettese are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.2 goals per match, with Pianese at 0.2.
  • BTTS rates of 20% for Pianese and 80% for Sambenedettese show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.
Price warning

Sambenedettese Asian Handicap +1 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 62% while the model sits nearer 56% (-5.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +10 pts edge at 2.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 56% for Sambenedettese Asian Handicap +1 sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Pianese and 80% for Sambenedettese, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A 1-1 draw fits both teams' profiles: Pianese's strong chance creation against Sambenedettese's leaky defence and Sambenedettese's superior scoring ability.

Model chance vs price56% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Negative
The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Pianese and 80%.Visible data support
Positive
Sambenedettese are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.2.Visible data support
Positive
A 1-1 draw fits both teams' profiles: Pianese's strong.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because under 2.5 Goals: Settles as a winner if the match finishes with zero, one, or two total goals (e.g. Sambenedettese are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Pianese at 0.2. Sambenedettese carry the stronger scoring threat, but Pianese must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Sambenedettese carry the stronger scoring threat, but Pianese must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Sambenedettese Asian Handicap +1 evidence

Under 2.5 Goals: Settles as a winner if the match finishes with zero, one, or two total goals.

Sambenedettese are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.2 goals per match, with Pianese at 0.2.

BTTS rates of 20% for Pianese and 80% for Sambenedettese show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Sambenedettese Asian Handicap +1 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pianese0.2
Avg goals scored
Sambenedettese1.2
Pianese1
Avg goals conceded
Sambenedettese2
Pianese20%
BTTS rate
Sambenedettese80%
Pianese20%
Over 2.5 goals
Sambenedettese80%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 62% · edge -5.9 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Under 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 20% for Pianese and 80% for Sambenedettese, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +10 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Sambenedettese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Sambenedettese to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Pianese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Pianese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

full betting preview for Pianese v Sambenedetteseplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pianese

LDLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 3L
16 Sep 2026A Torres1-2
12 Sep 2026H Grosseto0-0
05 Sep 2026A Guidonia Montecelio 19370-1
28 Aug 2026H Vado0-0
23 Aug 2026A Campobasso FC0-2

Sambenedettese

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 4L
16 Sep 2026H Atalanta II2-3
12 Sep 2026A Pineto1-2
06 Sep 2026H Spezia1-2
29 Aug 2026A Torres0-1
23 Aug 2026H Forli2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 65% · edge +4.3 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Sambenedettese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Sambenedettese to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Pianese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Pianese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Pianese Over 2.5
80%Sambenedettese Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Pianese sit at 20% and Sambenedettese sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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