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Fortuna Sittard crestFortuna Sittard

Eredivisie | Fri 28 Aug, 19:00

Groningen v Fortuna Sittard Stats

Data last updated: Thu 27 Aug 2026, 08:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Groningen and Fortuna Sittard meet in an Eredivisie clash where attacking intent is clear from both sides. Groningen has started strongly with six points and an aggressive style yielding an average of 2.33 goals scored and conceded per game, while Fortuna Sittard also shows offensive promise with 1.67 goals scored per match. Both teams have a history of open games, and Groningen's perfect over 2.5 goals rate this season highlights the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter. The fixture promises intensity and goalmouth action, with both sides eager to capitalize on early-season momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Groningen has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season
  • Fortuna Sittard averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game
  • Both teams have shown attacking openness, with Groningen conceding 2.33 goals per match
  • Recent form suggests a match with multiple goal-scoring opportunities
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.4 over the last 10 meetings

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 56.3% chance against an implied market probability of 47.6%, offering an 8.7% . Groningen's aggressive attacking play, combined with Fortuna Sittard's willingness to engage offensively, supports a high-goal scenario. Both teams' recent matches have featured multiple goals, and Groningen's perfect over 2.5 goals record this season underlines the likelihood of a goal-rich game. The level at 66% reflects solid data backing without overstatement.

Model Chance56.3%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance47.6%
Neutral
Value Edge8.7%
Strong positive
Confidence Level66%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively match with both Groningen and Fortuna Sittard pushing forward aggressively. Groningen's high goal involvement and Fortuna's attacking efforts suggest a game where goals are likely to flow. The data supports a bet on Over 3.5 Goals given the teams' offensive tendencies and recent scoring patterns.

Main risk

Fortuna's recent success at Euroborg adds risk to this outcome but overall supports the double result.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“This fixture features two teams with attacking mindsets and defensive vulnerabilities, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling angle. Groningen's relentless shot volume and Fortuna's goal threat create a scenario ripe for multiple goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Groningen has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season

Fortuna Sittard averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game

Both teams have shown attacking openness, with Groningen conceding 2.33 goals per match

Recent form suggests a match with multiple goal-scoring opportunities

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.4, indicating a moderately high-scoring history.
  • Recent form trends show Groningen's matches consistently exceeding 2.5 goals, while Fortuna Sittard's games often feature multiple goals.
  • This trend panel suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 and likely Over 3.5 goals in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Groningen3.67
Avg corners for
Fortuna Sittard2.33
Groningen8.67
Avg total corners
Fortuna Sittard12.67
Groningen0.67
Avg yellow cards
Fortuna Sittard0.33
Groningen13.33
Avg shots
Fortuna Sittard9.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 52% · edge +12.2 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Groningen averages 13.33 shots per game with 7.67 on target, indicating sustained attacking pressure and quality chances. Fortuna Sittard also contributes with nearly 10 shots per match. Corner counts and low card averages suggest a game focused on open play and offensive transitions rather than defensive fouling or stoppages.

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Eredivisie hubGroningen v Fortuna Sittard predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Groningen2.33
Avg goals scored
Fortuna Sittard1.67
Groningen2.33
Avg goals conceded
Fortuna Sittard1.67
Groningen100%
BTTS rate
Fortuna Sittard67%
Groningen100%
Over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Sittard67%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 56% vs implied 48% · edge +8.7 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have demonstrated strong attacking output with Groningen scoring and conceding over two goals per match on average, while Fortuna Sittard maintains a solid goal-scoring rate. The BTTS rates align with an open game, and the goal totals suggest multiple scoring opportunities for both sides, supporting a high-goal outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Fortuna Sittard Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Fortuna Sittard to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Groningen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Groningen to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.1, reflecting an implied chance below the model's 56.3% probability. This pricing offers clear value, encouraging a standard stake. The market correctly prices in the attacking styles but underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game given recent data.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Groningen

LWW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
23 Aug 2026A PSV Eindhoven1-5
16 Aug 2026A ADO Den Haag4-1
09 Aug 2026H Utrecht2-1

Fortuna Sittard

LWD
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
22 Aug 2026H AZ Alkmaar0-2
15 Aug 2026H Cambuur3-1
08 Aug 2026A PSV Eindhoven2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Fortuna Sittard Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Fortuna Sittard to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Groningen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Groningen to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Groningen's recent form is marked by a perfect 100% over 2.5 goals rate, reflecting their open and attacking style. Fortuna Sittard's 67% rate also indicates a propensity for games with multiple goals. Both teams' recent matches have featured goal-rich encounters, reinforcing the likelihood of an Over 3.5 Goals outcome in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Groningen wins
1Draws
5Fortuna Sittard wins
25 Jan 2026Groningen v Fortuna Sittard1-2
25 Oct 2025Fortuna Sittard v Groningen1-2
16 Mar 2025Groningen v Fortuna Sittard1-0
26 Oct 2024Fortuna Sittard v Groningen1-0
08 Feb 2024Groningen v Fortuna Sittard0-0
02 Apr 2023Fortuna Sittard v Groningen3-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Fortuna Sittard to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Groningen to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The head-to-head record over the past ten matches shows an average of 2.4 goals per game, indicating moderately open encounters. While not overwhelmingly high, this average supports the potential for multiple goals, especially when combined with current season form and attacking tendencies of both teams.
Season team stats

Eredivisie

Groningen3
Played
Fortuna Sittard3
Groningen2.3
Avg goals for
Fortuna Sittard1.7
Groningen2.3
Avg goals against
Fortuna Sittard1.7
Groningen0
Clean sheets
Fortuna Sittard0
Best odds for this sectionFortuna Sittard Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Fortuna Sittard to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Groningen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Groningen to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Season-long statistics show Groningen averaging 2.33 goals scored and conceded per game, highlighting a balance of attacking prowess and defensive vulnerability. Fortuna Sittard's figures of 1.67 goals for and against per match further support an open game scenario. These season stats underpin the expectation of a high-scoring encounter.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Groningen632010
8Fortuna Sittard431110
Groningen sits 5th with six points, while Fortuna Sittard is 8th with four points early in the Eredivisie campaign. Both teams are motivated to secure points and maintain momentum, which may encourage attacking play rather than conservative tactics, supporting a goal-heavy match environment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Groningen Over 2.5
67%Fortuna Sittard Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.4, indicating a moderately high-scoring history. Recent form trends show Groningen's matches consistently exceeding 2.5 goals, while Fortuna Sittard's games often feature multiple goals. This trend panel suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 and likely Over 3.5 goals in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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