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Gremio crestGremio
v
Corinthians crestCorinthians

Serie A | Sat 30 May, 21:30

Gremio v Corinthians Stats

Data last updated: Sun 05 Jul 2026, 00:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gremio face Corinthians in Serie A on Sat 30 May, 21:30. Saturday night in Porto Alegre brings together two clubs separated by little more than goal difference and carrying remarkably similar league records. Corinthians show slightly higher volume metrics but continue to navigate conversion difficulties during advanced possession segments.

BT4Y best bet

The Draw Grêmio and Corinthians approach this weekend with almost identical structural trajectories

  • At 5/1, Gremio Win implies roughly 17%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 39%.
  • Grêmio's home matches have frequently been tight affairs.
  • Corinthians have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Gremio.
  • Gremio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Gremio Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Gremio sit 16 in the table, while Corinthians sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 39% for Gremio Win sits against roughly 17% implied by the current price. Corinthians have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Gremio. Grêmio's home matches have frequently been tight affairs.

Model chance vs price39% model chance against roughly 17% implied
Strong positive
Corinthians have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Gremio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Grêmio's home matches have frequently been tight affairs.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Gremio Win is the preferred angle because grêmio's home matches have frequently been tight affairs. Corinthians have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Gremio. However, the broader picture suggests a team still searching for greater consistency.

Main risk

However, the broader picture suggests a team still searching for greater consistency.

Key Data Signals

Gremio Win evidence

Grêmio's home matches have frequently been tight affairs.

Corinthians have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 8 for Gremio.

Gremio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Gremio Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Gremio sit 16 in the table, while Corinthians sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Gremio Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Gremio1
    Avg goals scored
    Corinthians1.4
    Gremio0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Corinthians1.4
    Gremio40%
    BTTS rate
    Corinthians60%
    Gremio20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Corinthians60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 51% · edge +12 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 23%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 41%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGremio to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 37% · edge +1.8 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Gremio to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Serie A hubfull betting preview for Gremio v Corinthianscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Gremio3.8
    Avg corners for
    Corinthians4.4
    Gremio9.2
    Avg total corners
    Corinthians8
    Gremio2.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Corinthians2
    Gremio10
    Avg shots
    Corinthians13.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 46% · edge +21.1 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 49%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Gremio

    WDLDW
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 4D 4L
    23 May 2026H Santos3-2
    17 May 2026A Bahia1-1
    10 May 2026H Flamengo0-1
    03 May 2026A Atletico Paranaense0-0
    26 Apr 2026H Coritiba1-0

    Corinthians

    WLWLW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    24 May 2026H Atletico-MG1-0
    17 May 2026A Botafogo1-3
    10 May 2026H Sao Paulo3-2
    04 May 2026A Mirassol1-2
    26 Apr 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-0
    Market aligned with main pickGremio to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 37% · edge +1.8 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Gremio wins
    6Draws
    4Corinthians wins
    02 Nov 2025Corinthians v Gremio2-0
    13 Jun 2025Gremio v Corinthians1-1
    08 Dec 2024Gremio v Corinthians0-3
    08 Aug 2024Gremio v Corinthians0-0
    01 Aug 2024Corinthians v Gremio0-0
    26 Jul 2024Corinthians v Gremio2-2
    Market aligned with main pickGremio to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 37% · edge +1.8 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Gremio to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Gremio18
    Played
    Corinthians18
    Gremio1.1
    Avg goals for
    Corinthians1
    Gremio1.3
    Avg goals against
    Corinthians1.1
    Gremio5
    Clean sheets
    Corinthians7
    Market aligned with main pickGremio to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 37% · edge +1.8 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Season data supports Gremio to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    10Corinthians2418666-1
    16Gremio2118567-3
    Gremio sit in position 16, while Corinthians sit in position 10, so table pressure belongs in the Gremio Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Gremio Over 2.5
    60%Corinthians Over 2.5
    2.3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Gremio sit at 20% and Corinthians sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Gremio v Corinthians prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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