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CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Thu 30 Jul, 23:00

Gremio v Bolívar Stats

Data last updated: Wed 29 Jul 2026, 03:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bolívar hosts Gremio in the Copa Sudamericana round-of-16 first leg at the Estadio Hernando Siles, where altitude and home control create a challenging environment. Bolívar's potent attack, led by Martin Cauteruccio's nine goals, contrasts with their defensive lapses, while Gremio arrives with key absences including suspended striker Carlos Vinicius and manager Luis Castro. Despite these challenges, Gremio's attacking quality, featuring Martin Braithwaite, suggests both teams have the firepower to score, setting up a high-stakes, open contest under demanding conditions.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Bolívar scored 24 goals in 10 domestic matches, led by Martin Cauteruccio's 9 goals.
  • Gremio have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches, showing consistent attacking threat.
  • Bolívar conceded 10 goals in 10 domestic games, indicating defensive vulnerabilities at home.
  • Gremio's recent 2-1 away loss to Mirassol included 4 shots on target, evidencing their chance creation away.
  • Altitude and home advantage boost Bolívar, but Gremio's quality forwards can exploit counter-attacks.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 76%, well above the implied 54.6% chance, reflecting strong attacking profiles on both sides. Bolívar's high scoring rate and home attacking impetus combine with Gremio's consistent away goal scoring and quality forwards like Braithwaite. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, especially Bolívar's recent concession record, support the likelihood of goals at both ends. The altitude factor adds tactical complexity but does not diminish offensive opportunities. Data quality is solid, supporting in this selection.

Model Chance76%
Strong positive
Implied Odds Chance54.6%
Strong positive
Bolívar Attack24 goals in 10 matches
Strong positive
Gremio Away Scoring4 of last 5 matches scored
Positive
Defensive VulnerabilitiesBolívar conceded 10 goals in 10 games
Positive
Main risk

Bolivar will naturally want to push Gremio backwards, but attacking with too many players could expose spaces during transitions.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This fixture's unique altitude challenge and contrasting team strengths set the stage for an open game where both sides are likely to score. Bolívar's home firepower meets Gremio's resilient attack, making BTTS a compelling market.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Bolívar scored 24 goals in 10 domestic matches, led by Martin Cauteruccio's 9 goals.

Gremio have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches, showing consistent attacking threat.

Bolívar conceded 10 goals in 10 domestic games, indicating defensive vulnerabilities at home.

Gremio's recent 2-1 away loss to Mirassol included 4 shots on target, evidencing their chance creation away.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • The single head-to-head match between these teams averaged 5 goals, indicating a high-scoring encounter historically.
  • Recent trends show Bolívar's 100% Over 2.5 goals rate and Gremio's 60%, suggesting a fast-paced game with multiple scoring opportunities, consistent with the BTTS pick.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Gremio4
Avg corners for
Bolívar6
Gremio9.8
Avg total corners
Bolívar12
Gremio2.4
Avg yellow cards
Bolívar0
Gremio13.2
Avg shots
Bolívar29
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Bolívar averages 6 corners per match and Gremio 4.25, indicating active wide play and set-piece opportunities. Gremio's 2.5 yellow cards per game contrast with Bolívar's discipline, suggesting physical battles and fouls may influence game flow. Shot data shows Bolívar averages 29 shots with 8 on target, while Gremio averages 13.5 shots with 4.5 on target, supporting offensive pressure from both teams.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gremio1.8
Avg goals scored
Bolívar3
Gremio1
Avg goals conceded
Bolívar2
Gremio40%
BTTS rate
Bolívar100%
Gremio60%
Over 2.5 goals
Bolívar100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Bolívar's 24 goals in 10 domestic matches and Gremio's consistent away scoring underpin the BTTS pick. Bolívar's defensive vulnerabilities, including conceding 10 goals domestically and a recent 3-1 home loss, suggest both teams have opportunities to score. The tactical setup and attacking talent on both sides favor a goal-rich encounter.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Bolívar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Bolívar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 24%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.15
Check odds @ 1.15
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.83 with an implied probability of 54.6%, while the model estimates a 76% chance, indicating clear value. The price reflects cautious market sentiment due to altitude and absences, but the underlying data supports BTTS as a strong selection with a significant .
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gremio

LDWWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
23 Jul 2026A Bolívar2-3
26 May 2026H Atletico Torque2-2
21 May 2026H Palestino2-0
05 May 2026A Deportivo Riestra3-0
30 Apr 2026A Palestino0-0

Bolívar

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
23 Jul 2026H Gremio3-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Bolívar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 85%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Bolívar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 24%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.15
Check odds @ 1.15
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Recent form data shows Bolívar scoring 3 goals per match and conceding 2, reflecting an open style with defensive risks. Gremio scores 1.8 goals and concedes 1 on average, with a 40% BTTS rate away contrasting Bolívar's 100% BTTS rate at home. This form supports an expectation of goals from both sides in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Gremio wins
0Draws
1Bolívar wins
23 Jul 2026Bolívar v Gremio3-2
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Bolívar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 24%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
The limited head-to-head sample of one match featured 5 goals, supporting the likelihood of an open game with goals at both ends. While the sample is small, it aligns with the attacking profiles and recent form of both teams, providing relevant context for BTTS.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Gremio7
Played
Bolívar1
Gremio1.4
Avg goals for
Bolívar3
Gremio0.9
Avg goals against
Bolívar2
Gremio4
Clean sheets
Bolívar0
Best odds for this sectionBolívar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
Bolívar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 24%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.15
Check odds @ 1.15
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Season statistics highlight Bolívar's strong attacking output with 24 goals in 10 matches and a tendency to concede, aligning with BTTS. Gremio's balanced attack and defense, including 4 clean sheets in 5 matches, suggest resilience but also capability to score away, reinforcing the Both Teams to Score scenario.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Gremio1163215
While Bolívar's exact league position is unavailable, their strong home record and recent domestic form indicate competitive pressure to perform. Gremio ranks 2nd in their league with 11 points, showing solid form but facing challenges in away matches. The standings context suggests both teams have motivation to attack and avoid conceding, supporting BTTS.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Gremio Over 2.5
100%Bolívar Over 2.5
5H2H avg goals
The single head-to-head match between these teams averaged 5 goals, indicating a high-scoring encounter historically. Recent trends show Bolívar's 100% Over 2.5 goals rate and Gremio's 60%, suggesting a fast-paced game with multiple scoring opportunities, consistent with the BTTS pick.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Gremio v Bolívar prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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