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Botafogo crestBotafogo
v
Gremio crestGremio

Serie A | Wed 16 Sep, 23:30

Botafogo v Gremio Stats

Data last updated: Wed 07 Oct 2026, 09:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Botafogo face Gremio in Serie A on Wed 16 Sep, 23:30. Botafogo's high shot volume meets Grêmio's defensive frailty, who have conceded in 12 straight league matches. Grêmio look stronger on recent form, while Botafogo remain vulnerable after weaker results.

BT4Y match pick

BTTS Yes

  • At 13/20, BTTS Yes implies roughly 61%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 57%.
  • Both teams have scoring threats, with Botafogo scoring in eight of their last ten games and Grêmio averaging 1.
  • Botafogo show a 40% BTTS rate and Gremio show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Botafogo average 0.6 goals scored and Gremio average 0.8, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 57% for BTTS Yes sits against roughly 61% implied by the current price. Botafogo show a 40% BTTS rate and Gremio show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Both teams have scoring threats, with Botafogo scoring in eight of their last ten games and Grêmio averaging 1.

Model chance vs price57% model chance against roughly 61% implied
Negative
Botafogo show a 40% BTTS rate and Gremio show a.Visible data support
Positive
Botafogo average 0.6 goals scored and Gremio average 0.8, so.Visible data support
Positive
Both teams have scoring threats, with Botafogo scoring in.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because both teams have scoring threats, with Botafogo scoring in eight of their last ten games and Grêmio averaging 1. Botafogo show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Gremio show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Grêmio are winless away but still score regularly, keeping matches competitive.

Main risk

Grêmio are winless away but still score regularly, keeping matches competitive.

Key Data Signals

BTTS Yes evidence

Both teams have scoring threats, with Botafogo scoring in eight of their last ten games and Grêmio averaging.

Botafogo show a 40% BTTS rate and Gremio show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Botafogo average 0.6 goals scored and Gremio average 0.8, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS Yes notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Botafogo0.6
Avg goals scored
Gremio0.8
Botafogo1.6
Avg goals conceded
Gremio1.6
Botafogo40%
BTTS rate
Gremio40%
Botafogo40%
Over 2.5 goals
Gremio60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 57% · edge -0.4 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 40% for Botafogo and 40% for Gremio, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubBotafogo v Gremio predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 57% · edge -0.4 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Gremio Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Botafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
BTTS Yes is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Botafogo

DDLLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
13 Sep 2026H RB Bragantino1-1
06 Sep 2026H Palmeiras0-0
30 Aug 2026A Flamengo0-3
25 Aug 2026H Atletico Paranaense2-3
16 Aug 2026A Vitoria0-1

Gremio

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
12 Sep 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-2
08 Sep 2026A Vitoria0-1
30 Aug 2026H Chapecoense-sc3-1
23 Aug 2026A RB Bragantino0-1
16 Aug 2026A Atletico-MG0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Gremio Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Botafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Botafogo Over 2.5
60%Gremio Over 2.5
4.1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Botafogo sit at 40% and Gremio sit at 60% with the H2H average at 4.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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