Botafogo

Gremio

Serie A | Wed 16 Sep, 23:30

Botafogo v Gremio Stats

Data last updated: Wed 16 Sep 2026, 15:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Botafogo and Gremio meet in a Serie A clash where both sides are battling to climb away from the relegation zone. Botafogo, ranked 14th with 32 points, have struggled to convert chances into goals, scoring just 0.6 per match recently, while Gremio, 16th with 28 points, have shown slightly better resilience and a more cautious approach. Gremio's recent form includes a narrow points edge and a defensive setup that aims to frustrate Botafogo's attempts. This fixture is poised for a tactical battle with Gremio likely to prioritize solidity and avoid defeat away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Gremio or Draw

Gremio or Draw offers strong value with a of 74.9% versus an implied 47.6%.
Both teams have similar defensive records, conceding 1.6 goals per game recently.
Botafogo averages nearly 20 shots per game but struggles to finish, scoring only 0.6 goals per match.
Gremio's attack is less prolific but more efficient, with key players like Carlos Vinícius posing a goal threat.
The head-to-head average of 4.1 goals suggests open games, but recent form favors cautious play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Gremio or Draw due to their better recent form and defensive stability compared to Botafogo's inefficiency in front of goal. Despite Botafogo's higher shot volume, their low conversion rate and Gremio's ability to limit clear chances underpin the strong probability of Gremio avoiding defeat. The price reflects significant value as the market underestimates Gremio's resilience and tactical discipline. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance74.9%

Strong positive

Implied Market Chance47.6%

Strong positive

Recent Defensive FormBoth concede 1.6 goals per game

Neutral

Attacking EfficiencyBotafogo scores 0.6 goals vs Gremio 0.8 goals per game

Positive

Head-to-Head Goal Average4.1 goals per match

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gremio's tactical discipline and recent form edge make the double chance a sensible choice. Botafogo's inability to convert chances and Gremio's defensive organization suggest Gremio will avoid defeat in this tight contest. The pick balances tactical caution with statistical backing for a solid outcome.

Main risk

The fixture status adds uncertainty, so prices should be checked again once the match details settle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical resilience and finishing inefficiency

“Gremio's resilience and ability to absorb pressure away from home make the double chance a compelling option, especially against a Botafogo side struggling to finish chances consistently.”

Key Data Signals

Gremio or Draw evidence

Gremio or Draw offers strong value with a of 74.9% versus an implied 47.6%.

Both teams have similar defensive records, conceding 1.6 goals per game recently.

Botafogo averages nearly 20 shots per game but struggles to finish, scoring only 0.6 goals per match.

Gremio's attack is less prolific but more efficient, with key players like Carlos Vinícius posing a goal threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Gremio or Draw notes

In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4.1, indicating open games historically.
However, recent trends and form suggest a more measured tempo with defensive caution, reducing the likelihood of high-scoring outcomes and favoring a result where Gremio avoids defeat.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Botafogo6

Avg corners for

Gremio4

Botafogo11.4

Avg total corners

Gremio10.8

Botafogo2.6

Avg yellow cards

Gremio3.4

Botafogo19.6

Avg shots

Gremio12

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 58% · edge +5.1 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Load more odds for this section

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Botafogo averages 6 corners and 19.6 shots per game, indicating territorial control and attacking intent, but their low shot accuracy limits threat. Gremio averages fewer corners and shots but maintains discipline with 3.4 yellows per game, slightly higher than Botafogo's 2.6, reflecting a competitive but controlled defensive approach.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hub corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Botafogo0.6

Avg goals scored

Gremio0.8

Botafogo1.6

Avg goals conceded

Gremio1.6

Botafogo40%

BTTS rate

Gremio40%

Botafogo40%

Over 2.5 goals

Gremio60%

Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 80% · edge -1.8 pts

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

Load more odds for this section

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%

Check odds @ 3

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%

Check odds @ 2

Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%

Check odds @ 2

Both teams have similar BTTS rates at 40%, and recent matches show modest goal scoring with Botafogo averaging 0.6 and Gremio 0.8 goals per game. The high average goals in head-to-head matches (4.1) suggest potential for goals, but recent form points to cautious play and a likely tight scoreline, supporting a double chance rather than high-scoring bets.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionGremio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 5

Load more odds for this section

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

Gremio Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Botafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

The Gremio or Draw market is priced attractively with a 2.1 reflecting a 47.6% implied chance, significantly below the model's 74.9% probability. This large indicates the market underestimates Gremio's defensive solidity and ability to avoid defeat, making this a positive value bet without price warnings.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Botafogo

DDLLL

Last 50W 2D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 4D 4L

13 Sep 2026H RB Bragantino1-1

06 Sep 2026H Palmeiras0-0

30 Aug 2026A Flamengo0-3

25 Aug 2026H Atletico Paranaense2-3

16 Aug 2026A Vitoria0-1

Gremio

LLWLL

Last 51W 0D 4L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 1D 6L

12 Sep 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-2

08 Sep 2026A Vitoria0-1

30 Aug 2026H Chapecoense-sc3-1

23 Aug 2026A RB Bragantino0-1

16 Aug 2026A Atletico-MG0-3

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Load more odds for this section

Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

Gremio Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Botafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 66%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Recent form favors Gremio or Draw with Gremio earning 3 points in their last matches compared to Botafogo's 2 points. Both teams concede 1.6 goals per game, but Gremio's slightly better goal scoring and defensive organization provide a more stable base to avoid defeat, reinforcing the double chance pick.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Botafogo wins

2Draws

5Gremio wins

05 Feb 2026Gremio v Botafogo5-3

22 Nov 2025Botafogo v Gremio3-2

24 Sep 2025Gremio v Botafogo1-1

29 Sep 2024Botafogo v Gremio0-0

16 Jun 2024Gremio v Botafogo1-2

09 Nov 2023Botafogo v Gremio3-4

Best odds for this sectionGremio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 5

Load more odds for this section

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

The ten previous meetings between Botafogo and Gremio have been high-scoring affairs with an average of 4.1 goals per game. Despite this, recent tactical shifts and form suggest that Gremio's defensive approach may limit Botafogo's scoring opportunities, providing only moderate support for the double chance pick but highlighting potential for a competitive match.

Season team stats

Serie A

Botafogo26

Played

Gremio26

Botafogo1.5

Avg goals for

Gremio1.1

Botafogo1.6

Avg goals against

Gremio1.3

Botafogo4

Clean sheets

Gremio5

Best odds for this sectionGremio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 5

Load more odds for this section

Gremio Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Botafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Season-long stats show Botafogo with higher shot volume but lower goal conversion, while Gremio's balanced attack and defense yield more efficient results. Both teams concede similarly, but Gremio's ability to manage games away from home supports the likelihood of avoiding defeat in this fixture.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
14	Botafogo	32	26	8	8	10	-3
16	Gremio	28	26	7	7	12	-7

Both teams sit near the relegation zone with Botafogo 14th and Gremio 16th, making this match crucial for survival hopes. The pressure to gain points may encourage cautious tactics, especially from Gremio aiming to secure at least a draw, aligning with the double chance strategy.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Botafogo Over 2.5

60%Gremio Over 2.5

4.1H2H avg goals

In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4.1, indicating open games historically. However, recent trends and form suggest a more measured tempo with defensive caution, reducing the likelihood of high-scoring outcomes and favoring a result where Gremio avoids defeat.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Botafogo v Gremio Stats

Match Report

Gremio or Draw

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Botafogo

Gremio

Next step

Your privacy choices

Football Stats Hub

Botafogo v Gremio Stats

Match Report

Gremio or Draw

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Botafogo

Gremio

Related football research

Prediction context

More stats pages

Competition and hubs

Next step