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Botafogo crestBotafogo
v
Gremio crestGremio

Serie A | Wed 29 Jul, 21:00

Botafogo v Gremio Stats

Data last updated: Tue 28 Jul 2026, 05:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Botafogo and Gremio meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown contrasting styles but a shared tendency to generate set-piece opportunities. Botafogo's solid defensive record contrasts with Gremio's more open approach, which often leads to sustained pressure and corner chances. Recent form data highlights Botafogo's ability to create wide attacks and Gremio's willingness to commit fouls in advanced areas, setting the stage for a match rich in corners. Tactical setups suggest an intense battle for territorial advantage, increasing the likelihood of multiple corner situations throughout the game.

BT4Y best bet

Over 8.5 Corners

  • Botafogo averages 4.4 corners per match, Gremio 5.6, combining for over 10 per game.
  • Both teams engage in wide play and frequent attacking deliveries, boosting corner potential.
  • Recent matches show sustained pressure phases leading to set-piece opportunities.
  • Disciplinary stats indicate fouls in attacking zones, often resulting in corners.
  • Model projects a 75% chance for over 8.5 corners, reflecting consistent corner generation.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a strong 75% probability for over 8.5 corners based on both teams' attacking patterns and defensive tendencies. Botafogo's average of 4.4 corners and Gremio's 5.6 per match combine to exceed the threshold comfortably. The teams' styles involve frequent wide attacks and fouling in dangerous areas, which naturally lead to corner kicks. This statistical profile, supported by recent form and tactical context, underpins the in this corners market. No price warnings apply, allowing for a standard stake approach.

Combined Average Corners10.0 per match
Strong positive
Model Probability75% chance over 8.5 corners
Strong positive
Attacking StyleWide play and sustained pressure
Positive
Fouling in Attacking AreasIncreases corner opportunities
Positive
Price SensitivityNo warning required
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a tactical battle where both Botafogo and Gremio push for territorial control, resulting in frequent attacking sequences and set-piece situations. The statistical corner averages and fouling patterns strongly suggest a match with numerous corners, making over 8.5 corners a compelling selection based on both form and style.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market rationale

“Botafogo's disciplined defense combined with Gremio's aggressive wide play creates a dynamic where corners become a natural outcome of territorial tussles and fouling in advanced positions.”

Key Data Signals

Over 8.5 Corners evidence

Botafogo averages 4.4 corners per match, Gremio 5.6, combining for over 10 per game.

Both teams engage in wide play and frequent attacking deliveries, boosting corner potential.

Recent matches show sustained pressure phases leading to set-piece opportunities.

Disciplinary stats indicate fouls in attacking zones, often resulting in corners.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 8.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals tally 4.1 per game, indicating open matches with attacking intent.
  • This tempo and openness often correlate with higher corner counts, as both teams generate chances and defensive clearances under pressure, supporting the over 2.5 goals trend panel as a backdrop to corner accumulation.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Botafogo4.4
Avg corners for
Gremio5.6
Botafogo10.6
Avg total corners
Gremio11
Botafogo3.6
Avg yellow cards
Gremio2.8
Botafogo14.2
Avg shots
Gremio9.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Botafogo and Gremio show contrasting disciplinary profiles with Botafogo averaging 3.6 yellows and Gremio 2.8, reflecting physical contests that often lead to fouls near the box. Combined with Botafogo's 4.4 and Gremio's 5.6 corners per game and shot volumes, the match is expected to have sustained pressure and multiple set-piece situations.

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Serie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Botafogo1
Avg goals scored
Gremio1.4
Botafogo0.8
Avg goals conceded
Gremio1.8
Botafogo60%
BTTS rate
Gremio100%
Botafogo40%
Over 2.5 goals
Gremio60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
While goals and BTTS rates vary, the focus here is on set-piece generation. Both teams' attacking approaches and fouling frequency in attacking zones contribute to corner opportunities, independent of goal-scoring efficiency. This match is likely to feature multiple corners regardless of the final scoreline.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Gremio Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Botafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The over 8.5 corners market is well supported by a 75% , indicating a solid probability rather than a speculative pick. The combined average corners per game exceed the threshold, making the price reasonable with no current warnings. This market offers a balanced risk-reward profile given the teams' attacking and defensive tendencies.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Botafogo

WDWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
26 Jul 2026A Cruzeiro1-0
23 Jul 2026H Vitoria0-0
16 Jul 2026H Santos2-1
30 May 2026A Bahia1-2
23 May 2026A Sao Paulo1-1

Gremio

DLLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
26 Jul 2026H Fluminense1-1
18 Jul 2026A Mirassol1-2
30 May 2026H Corinthians1-3
23 May 2026H Santos3-2
17 May 2026A Bahia1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 83% vs implied 85% · edge -1.6 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
Gremio Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Botafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Recent form data shows Botafogo averaging 4.4 corners per match and Gremio 5.6, with both teams maintaining consistent corner generation over recent fixtures. This steady output supports the expectation of over 8.5 corners, reflecting ongoing attacking patterns and territorial battles in their games.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Botafogo wins
2Draws
5Gremio wins
05 Feb 2026Gremio v Botafogo5-3
22 Nov 2025Botafogo v Gremio3-2
24 Sep 2025Gremio v Botafogo1-1
29 Sep 2024Botafogo v Gremio0-0
16 Jun 2024Gremio v Botafogo1-2
09 Nov 2023Botafogo v Gremio3-4
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The last ten head-to-head matches average 4.1 goals per game, reflecting open and attacking encounters. While this primarily indicates goal-scoring trends, it also suggests sustained pressure and attacking phases that naturally produce corners. The historical data moderately supports the expectation of a high corner count in this fixture.
Season team stats

Serie A

Botafogo20
Played
Gremio20
Botafogo1.7
Avg goals for
Gremio1.1
Botafogo1.6
Avg goals against
Gremio1.3
Botafogo3
Clean sheets
Gremio5
Best odds for this sectionGremio Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 42% vs implied 33% · edge +8.7 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Botafogo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Season-long statistics reveal Botafogo's balanced corner creation and Gremio's slightly higher average, indicating a trend towards matches with frequent corner kicks. Defensive setups and attacking width contribute to this pattern, reinforcing the likelihood of surpassing 8.5 corners in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Botafogo29208572
15Gremio2220578-4
Botafogo sits 7th with 29 points, while Gremio is 15th with 22 points, suggesting differing stakes but both teams striving for positive results. This competitive context encourages attacking efforts and territorial contests, which typically increase corner counts as teams seek scoring opportunities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Botafogo Over 2.5
60%Gremio Over 2.5
4.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals tally 4.1 per game, indicating open matches with attacking intent. This tempo and openness often correlate with higher corner counts, as both teams generate chances and defensive clearances under pressure, supporting the over 2.5 goals trend panel as a backdrop to corner accumulation.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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