Football Stats Hub

Girona crestGirona
v
Castellón crestCastellón

Segunda División | Sat 12 Sep, 17:30

Girona v Castellón Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Segunda División clash features Castellón, currently top of the table with 10 points, visiting Girona, who sit fifth with 7 points. Castellón have shown defensive solidity, conceding just 0.25 goals per game, while Girona have a more open style but have struggled to convert chances efficiently. Girona's recent matches have been more goal-heavy, but Castellón's tactical discipline and effective counter-attacks make them a strong contender to claim victory in this fixture. The match carries significance for both sides aiming to consolidate their positions early in the season, adding competitive edge and tactical caution.

BT4Y best bet

Castellón to Win

  • Castellón leads the league with 10 points, showing strong form and defensive resilience.
  • Girona averages 2.25 goals scored per game but concedes 1.25, indicating vulnerability at the back.
  • Castellón concedes only 0.25 goals per game, highlighting their defensive strength.
  • Girona's BTTS rate is 75%, while Castellón's is just 25%, suggesting a tighter defensive game from Castellón.
  • Castellón's to win is 51.1%, significantly higher than the implied , indicating value.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Castellón to win with a 51.1% chance, reflecting their top-table position and strong defensive record conceding just 0.25 goals per game. Girona's higher goals conceded and less efficient attack reduce their chances. Castellón's ability to control games tactically and limit opponent chances supports this pick. The current offer positive value with an 18.8% edge, making Castellón a compelling choice despite Girona's home advantage. No price warnings apply, and standard staking is advised.

Model Win Probability51.1%
Strong positive
Girona Goals Conceded per Game1.25
Negative
Castellón Goals Conceded per Game0.25
Strong positive
Value Edge vs Odds+18.8%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsCastellón 10, Girona 7
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Castellón's defensive solidity and current top-table form make them the tactical favorite to win this match. Girona's attacking potential is notable but inconsistent defensively, giving Castellón an edge both in strategy and recent results. The data supports backing Castellón for a confident away victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical advantage

“Castellón's disciplined defensive approach and efficient counter-attacking style position them well to overcome Girona's home challenge, especially given their superior form and league standing.”

Key Data Signals

Castellón to Win evidence

Castellón leads the league with 10 points, showing strong form and defensive resilience.

Girona averages 2.25 goals scored per game but concedes 1.25, indicating vulnerability at the back.

Castellón concedes only 0.25 goals per game, highlighting their defensive strength.

Girona's BTTS rate is 75%, while Castellón's is just 25%, suggesting a tighter defensive game from Castellón.

What To Watch In The Data

Castellón to Win notes

  • Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.33, indicating potential for goals.
  • However, Castellón's recent defensive improvements and Girona's mixed form suggest a more cautious game this time, possibly limiting the goal count despite historical trends.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Girona2.25
Avg goals scored
Castellón1.25
Girona1.25
Avg goals conceded
Castellón0.25
Girona75%
BTTS rate
Castellón25%
Girona50%
Over 2.5 goals
Castellón25%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 44% · edge +11.4 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 30%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Girona's matches have a high BTTS rate of 75%, contrasting with Castellón's 25%, suggesting a likely low-scoring encounter with Castellón focusing on defensive solidity. The average goals in their head-to-head is 3.33, but recent defensive improvements by Castellón may limit scoring opportunities, favoring a tighter goals market.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCastellón to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Castellón Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The for Castellón to win are priced attractively at 3.1, reflecting a market underestimation of their chances. The model's 51.1% win probability indicates strong value in backing Castellón, supported by their league-leading defensive stats and form. This price offers a positive expected return, making it a price-sensitive but confident selection.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Girona4
Avg corners for
Castellón5.75
Girona5.75
Avg total corners
Castellón9.25
Girona3
Avg yellow cards
Castellón2.5
Girona16
Avg shots
Castellón15
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Castellón averages more corners (5.75) than Girona (4), indicating territorial pressure and attacking intent despite their defensive focus. Girona averages slightly more shots (16) and shots on target (5.25), reflecting their offensive style. Both teams maintain moderate card averages, with Girona slightly higher, suggesting a competitive but disciplined match.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Girona

WWLD
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
05 Sep 2026A Sporting Gijon2-0
29 Aug 2026H Las Palmas5-2
21 Aug 2026A Cordoba1-2
16 Aug 2026H Leganes1-1

Castellón

WWDW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
06 Sep 2026H Albacete2-0
31 Aug 2026A Celta de Vigo II2-1
23 Aug 2026H Sabadell0-0
14 Aug 2026A Real Sociedad II1-0
Market aligned with main pickCastellón to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Castellón Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Castellón's recent form is strong, collecting 10 points with a stingy defense conceding only 0.25 goals per game. Girona has 7 points but a more porous defense, conceding 1.25 goals per game. Castellón's momentum and defensive consistency provide a solid foundation for an away win in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Girona wins
1Draws
0Castellón wins
29 Jul 2026Girona v Castellón3-3
21 Feb 2021Girona v Castellón2-1
24 Oct 2020Castellón v Girona0-1
Market aligned with main pickCastellón to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The three recent meetings between these teams have averaged 3.33 goals per game, showing a history of open encounters. However, Castellón's current defensive form and tactical discipline weaken the direct relevance of past high-scoring matches, making recent form and defensive stats more decisive for this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Segunda División

Girona4
Played
Castellón4
Girona2.3
Avg goals for
Castellón1.3
Girona1.3
Avg goals against
Castellón0.3
Girona1
Clean sheets
Castellón3
Market aligned with main pickCastellón to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Castellón Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Castellón's season stats show a robust defense and efficient attack, with a low goals-against average and steady goal scoring. Girona's higher goals for and against indicate a more open style but defensive vulnerabilities. These season-long trends favor Castellón's ability to control the match and secure a win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Castellón1043104
6Girona742114
Castellón sits atop the Segunda División standings, reflecting consistent performance and form, while Girona is fifth, slightly behind in points. The league context underscores Castellón's status as favorites and the pressure on Girona to respond at home, adding tactical caution to the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Girona Over 2.5
25%Castellón Over 2.5
3.33H2H avg goals
Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.33, indicating potential for goals. However, Castellón's recent defensive improvements and Girona's mixed form suggest a more cautious game this time, possibly limiting the goal count despite historical trends.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

FC Andorra v Real Sociedad IISegunda División · Sat 12 Sep 13:00Cadiz v Las PalmasSegunda División · Sat 12 Sep 15:15Granada CF v AlbaceteSegunda División · Sat 12 Sep 17:30Cordoba v AlmeriaSegunda División · Sat 12 Sep 20:00

Competition and hubs

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centre

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre