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Cadiz crestCadiz
v
Las Palmas crestLas Palmas

Segunda División | Sat 12 Sep, 15:15

Cadiz v Las Palmas Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Segunda División clash features Cadiz, currently struggling near the relegation zone, hosting Las Palmas who sit comfortably in mid-table with better recent form. Las Palmas have shown more attacking intent and efficiency, collecting seven points from their opening fixtures compared to Cadiz's three. Tactical setups suggest Las Palmas will look to exploit Cadiz's defensive vulnerabilities, aiming to control midfield and create chances through key players like Iván Jaime. The match carries importance for Cadiz to halt their poor run, while Las Palmas seek to consolidate their position with a confident away performance.

BT4Y best bet

Las Palmas to Win

  • Las Palmas have earned 7 points from recent matches, compared to Cadiz's 3
  • Las Palmas average 1.5 goals per game, slightly higher than Cadiz's 1.25
  • Cadiz concede 1.5 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty
  • Las Palmas' Iván Jaime averages over 4 shots on target per 90 minutes, posing a significant threat
  • Both teams have a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting openness in play

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Las Palmas to win with a 59.7% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking metrics. Their offensive players, particularly Iván Jaime, demonstrate high shot volumes and goal threat, while Cadiz's defensive record is less robust. The price at 2.6 offers positive value given the implied chance is only 38.5%. This suggests the market underestimates Las Palmas' potential to secure victory, supported by their more consistent point accumulation and goal-scoring efficiency. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent form advantageLas Palmas have 7 points vs Cadiz's 3
Strong positive
Goal threatLas Palmas average 1.5 goals per game
Positive
Defensive weaknessCadiz concede 1.5 goals per game
Positive
Player attacking metricsIván Jaime 4.09 shots on target per 90
Strong positive
Price valueOdds 2.6 imply 38.5% chance vs model 59.7%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Las Palmas' superior recent form and attacking efficiency make them the favored side to win this encounter. Their ability to create quality chances, led by Iván Jaime, contrasts with Cadiz's defensive struggles and limited points haul. This tactical and statistical edge supports backing Las Palmas for the victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Las Palmas' attacking midfield dynamism and Cadiz's defensive vulnerabilities create a clear pathway for an away win. Iván Jaime's high shot volume and finishing form are key factors tipping the balance in Las Palmas' favor.”

Key Data Signals

Las Palmas to Win evidence

Las Palmas have earned 7 points from recent matches, compared to Cadiz's 3

Las Palmas average 1.5 goals per game, slightly higher than Cadiz's 1.25

Cadiz concede 1.5 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty

Las Palmas' Iván Jaime averages over 4 shots on target per 90 minutes, posing a significant threat

What To Watch In The Data

Las Palmas to Win notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.1, with both teams showing a 50% rate of matches over 2.5 goals recently.
  • This trend suggests a moderate tempo with opportunities for multiple goals, supporting the likelihood of an open game with scoring chances for both sides.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Cadiz4.25
Avg corners for
Las Palmas2.67
Cadiz8.75
Avg total corners
Las Palmas7.33
Cadiz3.25
Avg yellow cards
Las Palmas1.67
Cadiz10
Avg shots
Las Palmas5.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 49% vs implied 60% · edge -11 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Cadiz averages more corners (4.25) and yellow cards (3.25) than Las Palmas, indicating a more aggressive and pressured defensive style. Las Palmas' higher shots on target per game (3.5) compared to Cadiz (3) reflect their offensive threat. These factors suggest Las Palmas will press and create chances, while Cadiz may concede fouls and set pieces under pressure.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cadiz1.25
Avg goals scored
Las Palmas1.5
Cadiz1.5
Avg goals conceded
Las Palmas1.5
Cadiz75%
BTTS rate
Las Palmas50%
Cadiz50%
Over 2.5 goals
Las Palmas50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 31%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have a 50% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with Cadiz conceding 1.5 goals per game and Las Palmas scoring 1.5. Cadiz's 75% BTTS rate indicates openness at the back, while Las Palmas' 50% BTTS rate suggests a balanced approach. This points to a game likely featuring goals from both sides or at least multiple scoring opportunities.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLas Palmas to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Las Palmas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The current of 2.6 for a Las Palmas win represent a positive value opportunity as the model estimates their chance at nearly 60%. This discrepancy suggests the market underestimates Las Palmas' form and attacking potential, making this a price-sensitive but attractive bet.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cadiz

LDDD
Last 50W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 1L
06 Sep 2026A Almeria2-3
30 Aug 2026H Valladolid1-1
22 Aug 2026A Eldense2-2
15 Aug 2026H Celta de Vigo II0-0

Las Palmas

DLWW
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
04 Sep 2026H Leganes0-0
29 Aug 2026A Girona2-5
22 Aug 2026A AD Ceuta FC2-0
16 Aug 2026H Albacete2-1
Market aligned with main pickLas Palmas to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Las Palmas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Las Palmas have accumulated 7 points with a balanced attack averaging 1.5 goals per game and a moderate defensive concession rate. Cadiz's 3 points and 1.25 goals scored contrast with a higher goals conceded rate, reflecting recent struggles. This form gap supports Las Palmas' chances to control the match and secure a win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Cadiz wins
3Draws
5Las Palmas wins
08 Aug 2026Cadiz v Las Palmas1-3
27 Apr 2026Cadiz v Las Palmas1-2
05 Oct 2025Las Palmas v Cadiz1-0
24 Jul 2025Cadiz v Las Palmas2-1
19 May 2024Cadiz v Las Palmas0-0
17 Dec 2023Las Palmas v Cadiz1-1
Market aligned with main pickLas Palmas to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.1 goals per game, indicating moderately open encounters. While the sample is limited, it suggests neither side dominates historically, making current form and tactical setups more decisive for this match outcome.
Season team stats

Segunda División

Cadiz4
Played
Las Palmas4
Cadiz1.3
Avg goals for
Las Palmas1.5
Cadiz1.5
Avg goals against
Las Palmas1.5
Cadiz1
Clean sheets
Las Palmas2
Market aligned with main pickLas Palmas to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Las Palmas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Las Palmas' season stats show a slightly better offensive output and similar defensive concession compared to Cadiz. Their ability to generate shots and convert chances is more consistent, while Cadiz's defensive numbers suggest vulnerability. This season-long profile aligns with the expectation of Las Palmas winning this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10Las Palmas742110
18Cadiz34031-1
Las Palmas sit 10th in the Segunda División with 7 points, comfortably above Cadiz who are 18th with 3 points. While the league position reflects recent form differences, the mid-table security for Las Palmas versus Cadiz's relegation zone proximity adds pressure on the home side, influencing tactical urgency and match approach.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Cadiz Over 2.5
50%Las Palmas Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.1, with both teams showing a 50% rate of matches over 2.5 goals recently. This trend suggests a moderate tempo with opportunities for multiple goals, supporting the likelihood of an open game with scoring chances for both sides.

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