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Gateshead crestGateshead
v
Southend crestSouthend

National League | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

Gateshead v Southend Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gateshead and Southend meet in a National League clash where Southend's strong early season form contrasts with Gateshead's struggles. Southend sit third with 17 points, showing attacking potency, while Gateshead are near the bottom with just 4 points and defensive vulnerabilities. Southend's consistent goal scoring and Gateshead's defensive concessions suggest an open game with chances at both ends. The tactical setup likely favors Southend's offense, but Gateshead's need for points may encourage attacking risks, setting the stage for goals from both sides in this competitive fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Southend have scored 2 goals per game on average this season, showing strong attacking form.
  • Gateshead concede 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive frailties.
  • Southend have a 100% BTTS rate this season, scoring and conceding in every match.
  • Gateshead have a 40% BTTS rate, showing some matches with goals at both ends.
  • The model estimates a 76% chance of both teams scoring, well above the market implied chance.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 76% probability, reflecting Southend's potent attack and Gateshead's defensive openness. Southend's perfect BTTS record and Gateshead's tendency to concede create a strong football read for goals at both ends. The current offer positive value with a 20% edge, making this a compelling selection. Data quality is solid for both sides, supporting in the prediction. The attacking styles and recent form data align well with the BTTS outcome, reinforcing the pick's strength.

Southend BTTS rate100% this season
Strong positive
Gateshead goals conceded1.8 per game
Positive
Model BTTS chance76%
Strong positive
Market implied chance56%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Teams to Score is a logical pick given Southend's attacking consistency and Gateshead's defensive struggles. Southend's ability to find the net regularly combined with Gateshead's concessions suggests goals at both ends. The data supports an open game where both sides have opportunities, making BTTS a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“Southend's attacking threat paired with Gateshead's defensive vulnerabilities creates a strong scenario for both teams to find the net. The statistical trends and recent form clearly point to an open game with goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Southend have scored 2 goals per game on average this season, showing strong attacking form.

Gateshead concede 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive frailties.

Southend have a 100% BTTS rate this season, scoring and conceding in every match.

Gateshead have a 40% BTTS rate, showing some matches with goals at both ends.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.13, indicating a moderately open scoring environment.
  • Southend's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) and Gateshead's 40% rate suggest a tempo that can produce multiple goals, aligning with the BTTS and over 2.5 goals trends for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gateshead0.4
Avg goals scored
Southend2
Gateshead1.8
Avg goals conceded
Southend1.8
Gateshead40%
BTTS rate
Southend100%
Gateshead40%
Over 2.5 goals
Southend80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Southend's perfect BTTS record this season and Gateshead's 40% BTTS rate highlight a strong trend for goals at both ends. The average goals per game in their recent matches and head-to-head encounters further support the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Gateshead Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Southend to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Southend Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Gateshead to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively with reflecting a 56% implied chance, while the model estimates a 76% probability. This 20% indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of goals from both sides, making the bet a positive value opportunity rather than a price-sensitive watch-only angle.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gateshead

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 6L
16 Sep 2026A Kidderminster Harriers0-1
12 Sep 2026A Forest Green0-4
05 Sep 2026H Solihull Moors1-1
31 Aug 2026A Harrogate Town1-2
28 Aug 2026H Sutton Utd0-1

Southend

WDWDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 1L
15 Sep 2026H Tamworth3-1
12 Sep 2026A Carlisle2-2
05 Sep 2026H Yeovil Town3-2
31 Aug 2026A Woking1-1
28 Aug 2026H Kidderminster Harriers1-3
Best odds for this sectionGateshead Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Southend to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Southend Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Gateshead to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Southend's recent form shows strong offensive output with 2 goals per game and a 100% BTTS rate, indicating consistent scoring and conceding. Gateshead's form is weaker, scoring 0.4 goals per game and conceding 1.8, but their matches still see goals at both ends in 40% of cases, supporting the BTTS selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Gateshead wins
3Draws
2Southend wins
10 Mar 2026Southend v Gateshead1-1
09 Aug 2025Gateshead v Southend0-3
05 May 2025Gateshead v Southend0-0
28 Sep 2024Southend v Gateshead1-3
03 Feb 2024Southend v Gateshead0-1
25 Nov 2023Gateshead v Southend1-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Southend to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Gateshead to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
The eight previous meetings between these teams have averaged just over two goals per game, indicating a moderate scoring history. While not overwhelmingly high, this sample supports the possibility of goals from both sides, especially considering Southend's current attacking form and Gateshead's defensive issues.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

National League

Gateshead8
Played
Southend8
Gateshead0.6
Avg goals for
Southend2.1
Gateshead1.8
Avg goals against
Southend1.4
Gateshead1
Clean sheets
Southend1
Best odds for this sectionGateshead Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Southend to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Southend Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Gateshead to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
5
Check odds @ 5
Season-long stats reveal Southend as a high-scoring team with a perfect BTTS record, while Gateshead's defensive record is among the poorest in the league. This combination of strong attack and defensive vulnerability supports the expectation of goals from both teams in this match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Southend1785216
23Gateshead48116-9
Southend's third-place position with 17 points reflects their strong season start and attacking efficiency, while Gateshead's 23rd place and 4 points highlight struggles, particularly defensively. The standings underscore the contrast in form and the likelihood of an open game with goals at both ends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Gateshead Over 2.5
80%Southend Over 2.5
2.13H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.13, indicating a moderately open scoring environment. Southend's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) and Gateshead's 40% rate suggest a tempo that can produce multiple goals, aligning with the BTTS and over 2.5 goals trends for this fixture.

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