FSV Mainz 05

Bournemouth

Friendlies Clubs | Sat 15 Aug, 14:30

FSV Mainz 05 v Bournemouth Stats

Data last updated: Fri 14 Aug 2026, 07:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FSV Mainz 05 and Bournemouth meet in a friendly fixture where attacking intent is likely to dominate given the pre-season setting. Mainz has shown solid defensive form recently but limited goal output, while Bournemouth's matches have been high-scoring affairs with a strong tendency for open play. Both sides appear inclined to test offensive options and fitness, suggesting a lively encounter with multiple goal opportunities. The friendly nature reduces defensive rigidity, increasing the chance of a goal-rich game as both teams seek to build rhythm and ahead of competitive fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

Bournemouth has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, indicating consistent high-scoring games.
FSV Mainz 05 has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, showing frequent involvement in matches with multiple goals.
Bournemouth averages 5.25 goals scored per recent match, highlighting strong attacking output.
FSV Mainz 05 concedes only 0.8 goals per game recently, suggesting a solid defense but limited scoring from their side.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 58% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, reflecting the attacking profiles and recent scoring trends of both teams. Bournemouth's perfect record for Over 2.5 Goals and high goals per game strongly supports a high-scoring outcome. Mainz's defensive solidity is counterbalanced by the friendly match context, where defensive discipline often loosens. The price at 2.2 offers positive value given the model's higher probability estimate, making this an attractive bet for those expecting an open, goal-filled game.

Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals Rate100% recent matches

Strong positive

FSV Mainz 05 Over 2.5 Goals Rate80% recent matches

Positive

Bournemouth Goals For5.25 per game

Strong positive

FSV Mainz 05 Goals Against0.8 per game

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Bournemouth's attacking prowess likely to push the total goals above 3.5. Mainz's recent defensive form may provide some resistance, but the friendly setting encourages offensive experimentation, making Over 3.5 Goals a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and match context

“Bournemouth's consistent high-scoring matches combined with Mainz's willingness to test attacking options in a friendly sets the stage for a goal-laden encounter. The Over 3.5 Goals market captures this dynamic well.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Bournemouth has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, indicating consistent high-scoring games.

FSV Mainz 05 has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, showing frequent involvement in matches with multiple goals.

Bournemouth averages 5.25 goals scored per recent match, highlighting strong attacking output.

FSV Mainz 05 concedes only 0.8 goals per game recently, suggesting a solid defense but limited scoring from their side.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

Over the last five matches, Bournemouth has consistently produced games with more than 2.5 goals, while Mainz also shows a strong trend towards higher goal totals.
This recent trend suggests a fast tempo and open play style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, supporting the even higher Over 3.5 Goals market in this fixture.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FSV Mainz 053

Avg goals scored

Bournemouth5.25

FSV Mainz 050.8

Avg goals conceded

Bournemouth1.5

FSV Mainz 0540%

BTTS rate

Bournemouth100%

FSV Mainz 0580%

Over 2.5 goals

Bournemouth100%

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.5 pts

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Load more odds for this section

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%

1.14

Check odds @ 1.14

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Recent form data shows Bournemouth consistently involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Mainz also frequently participates in higher-scoring games. Both teams' BTTS rates differ, with Bournemouth at 100% and Mainz at 40%, indicating Bournemouth's matches often feature goals at both ends, supporting a high total goals scenario.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Load more odds for this section

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

FSV Mainz 05 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%

Check odds @ 3

Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

Bournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.58

Check odds @ 1.58

The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced at 2.2, reflecting a 45.5% implied chance, which is notably lower than the model's 58% estimate. This positive suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making the bet attractive without significant price sensitivity concerns.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FSV Mainz 05

WDWWW

Last 54W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 106W 1D 0L

08 Aug 2026H Paris FC4-0

01 Aug 2026A Udinese3-3

31 Jul 2026H Shabab Al Ahli Dubai1-0

25 Jul 2026H Holstein Kiel3-0

17 Jul 2026H 1. FC Kaiserslautern4-1

Bournemouth

DWWW

Last 53W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 1D 0L

08 Aug 2026A Real Betis2-2

04 Aug 2026H Genoa10-1

30 Jul 2026A FC Augsburg5-2

24 Jul 2026H FC St. Pauli4-1

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 63% · edge +8.9 pts

1.59

Check odds @ 1.59

Load more odds for this section

FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

FSV Mainz 05 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%

Check odds @ 3

Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 72%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

Bournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.58

Check odds @ 1.58

Bournemouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Bournemouth's recent form includes a perfect Over 2.5 Goals rate, scoring an average of 5.25 goals per match, indicating strong offensive momentum. Mainz, while more defensively solid, has also seen 80% of their recent matches exceed 2.5 goals, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring friendly encounter.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0FSV Mainz 05 wins

0Draws

0Bournemouth wins

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Load more odds for this section

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

FSV Mainz 05 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%

Check odds @ 3

DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

Bournemouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

No previous meetings exist between FSV Mainz 05 and Bournemouth, so head-to-head data cannot inform this match's goal expectations. Instead, recent form and tactical context provide the primary guidance for anticipating a high-scoring game.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Friendlies Clubs

FSV Mainz 058

Played

Bournemouth5

FSV Mainz 054.8

Avg goals for

Bournemouth4.4

FSV Mainz 050.6

Avg goals against

Bournemouth1.6

FSV Mainz 055

Clean sheets

Bournemouth0

Best odds for this sectionFSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 43% · edge +9.9 pts

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

Load more odds for this section

FSV Mainz 05 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%

Check odds @ 3

Bournemouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.58

Check odds @ 1.58

Bournemouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Season-long data highlights Bournemouth's potent attack and propensity for high-scoring games, while Mainz's defensive numbers are solid but not impermeable. This contrast supports the expectation of multiple goals, especially given the friendly context where defensive caution is often reduced.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%FSV Mainz 05 Over 2.5

100%Bournemouth Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Over the last five matches, Bournemouth has consistently produced games with more than 2.5 goals, while Mainz also shows a strong trend towards higher goal totals. This recent trend suggests a fast tempo and open play style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, supporting the even higher Over 3.5 Goals market in this fixture.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

Football Stats Hub

FSV Mainz 05 v Bournemouth Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

FSV Mainz 05

Bournemouth

Next step

Your privacy choices

Football Stats Hub

FSV Mainz 05 v Bournemouth Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

FSV Mainz 05

Bournemouth

Related football research

Prediction context

More stats pages

Competition and hubs

Next step