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Fredrikstad crestFredrikstad
v
Sarpsborg 08 FF crestSarpsborg 08 FF

Eliteserien | Sun 13 Sep, 18:15

Fredrikstad v Sarpsborg 08 FF Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fredrikstad hosts Sarpsborg 08 FF in an Eliteserien clash where Fredrikstad's recent form and home advantage set the tone. Fredrikstad have collected 12 points in their last five matches, showing defensive solidity with only 0.6 goals conceded per game, while Sarpsborg 08 FF have struggled, earning just 3 points and conceding 1.8 goals per match. Both teams sit mid-table, separated by only two points, adding competitive edge. Fredrikstad's tactical discipline and sharper recent output contrast with Sarpsborg's defensive vulnerabilities, making this a pivotal fixture for both sides' season ambitions.

BT4Y best bet

Fredrikstad to Win

  • Fredrikstad have earned 12 points in last 5 matches versus Sarpsborg's 3 points.
  • Fredrikstad concede just 0.6 goals per game, showcasing defensive strength.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF have a high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) but weaker defensive record.
  • Fredrikstad average 11.8 shots per game with 5 on target, indicating attacking threat.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent form and defensive lapses suggest Fredrikstad advantage.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns Fredrikstad a 74% chance to win, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive record compared to Sarpsborg 08 FF. Fredrikstad's ability to limit goals against (0.6 per game) and maintain consistent attacking pressure with 11.8 shots per match supports this . The price at 2.38 offers positive value given the implied chance of 42%, making Fredrikstad a strong pick. No data limitations affect , and the model's high rating of 74 underlines the robustness of this selection.

Recent FormFredrikstad 12 points vs Sarpsborg 3 points in last 5
Strong positive
Defensive RecordFredrikstad concede 0.6 goals/game vs Sarpsborg 1.8
Strong positive
Attacking PressureFredrikstad average 11.8 shots and 5 SOT per game
Positive
Price vs Model Chance2.38 odds imply 42% chance vs model 74% chance
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fredrikstad's recent form and defensive solidity give them a tactical and statistical edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF. Their ability to control matches and limit goals conceded aligns with the model's , making a home win the most probable outcome in this closely contested Eliteserien fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Fredrikstad's disciplined defense and consistent attacking output make them the clear favorites here, especially given Sarpsborg's recent struggles at the back and lack of form.”

Key Data Signals

Fredrikstad to Win evidence

Fredrikstad have earned 12 points in last 5 matches versus Sarpsborg's 3 points.

Fredrikstad concede just 0.6 goals per game, showcasing defensive strength.

Sarpsborg 08 FF have a high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) but weaker defensive record.

Fredrikstad average 11.8 shots per game with 5 on target, indicating attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Fredrikstad to Win notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.25, indicating moderately open matches.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Fredrikstad's more conservative 40%, suggesting that while goals are possible, Fredrikstad's defensive approach may keep the total under tighter control in this encounter.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fredrikstad2.5
Avg corners for
Sarpsborg 08 FF6.33
Fredrikstad12.5
Avg total corners
Sarpsborg 08 FF14.67
Fredrikstad1
Avg yellow cards
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.33
Fredrikstad11.5
Avg shots
Sarpsborg 08 FF21.33
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 71% · edge -2.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Sarpsborg 08 FF average more corners (5.2) and shots (15.8) than Fredrikstad, indicating they often press offensively. However, Fredrikstad's defensive resilience and lower fouling rate balance this pressure. Both teams have similar yellow card averages (1.2), suggesting disciplined play. The shot volume favors Sarpsborg, but Fredrikstad's defensive organization may mitigate this threat.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fredrikstad1.6
Avg goals scored
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.4
Fredrikstad0.6
Avg goals conceded
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.8
Fredrikstad40%
BTTS rate
Sarpsborg 08 FF80%
Fredrikstad40%
Over 2.5 goals
Sarpsborg 08 FF80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 64% · edge +6.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Fredrikstad average 1.6 goals per game with a 40% BTTS rate, contrasting with Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.4 goals and 80% BTTS rate. Sarpsborg's games tend to be higher scoring, but Fredrikstad's defensive discipline may limit overall goals. This suggests a moderately open game with potential for goals but not necessarily both teams scoring consistently.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFredrikstad to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Fredrikstad Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Fredrikstad to Win is priced at 2.38, reflecting a market-implied chance of 42%, which is significantly below the model's 74% probability. This discrepancy indicates strong value in backing Fredrikstad, supported by their recent form and defensive strength. The price is attractive and suggests the market may be underestimating Fredrikstad's chances, making this a positive value bet rather than a price-sensitive angle.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fredrikstad

LWWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
04 Sep 2026H Bodo/Glimt1-2
30 Aug 2026A Lillestrom4-1
16 Aug 2026H Kristiansund BK1-0
08 Aug 2026A Start1-0
01 Aug 2026H Sandefjord1-0

Sarpsborg 08 FF

DDLLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
06 Sep 2026H Valerenga2-2
30 Aug 2026A Tromso0-0
16 Aug 2026H Sandefjord1-2
08 Aug 2026A Viking1-2
02 Aug 2026A Molde3-3
Market aligned with main pickFredrikstad to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Fredrikstad Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Fredrikstad's recent form is markedly stronger, securing 12 points in their last five matches compared to Sarpsborg 08 FF's 3 points. Fredrikstad's defensive record of 0.6 goals conceded per game underpins their solidity, while Sarpsborg's 1.8 goals conceded highlights vulnerability. This form disparity suggests Fredrikstad enter the match with momentum and , increasing their likelihood to control the game and secure victory.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Fredrikstad wins
2Draws
3Sarpsborg 08 FF wins
09 May 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF v Fredrikstad2-1
08 Mar 2026Fredrikstad v Sarpsborg 08 FF2-1
08 Nov 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF v Fredrikstad0-2
01 Jun 2025Fredrikstad v Sarpsborg 08 FF1-1
28 Sep 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF v Fredrikstad0-1
13 Apr 2024Fredrikstad v Sarpsborg 08 FF2-2
Market aligned with main pickFredrikstad to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The eight previous meetings between Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF have produced an average of 2.25 goals per game, reflecting balanced encounters. While this sample is moderate, it suggests neither side dominates historically, making current form and tactical setup more decisive for the outcome of this match.
Season team stats

Eliteserien

Fredrikstad19
Played
Sarpsborg 08 FF19
Fredrikstad1.2
Avg goals for
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.2
Fredrikstad1.6
Avg goals against
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.3
Fredrikstad3
Clean sheets
Sarpsborg 08 FF5
Market aligned with main pickFredrikstad to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Fredrikstad Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over the season, Fredrikstad have demonstrated a balanced attack and strong defense, averaging 1.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game. Sarpsborg 08 FF's stats reveal a more open style with 1.4 goals scored but a leaky defense conceding 1.8 goals per match. These contrasting profiles suggest Fredrikstad's defensive stability will be crucial in limiting Sarpsborg's attacking threats and securing the win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Fredrikstad2619829-7
9Sarpsborg 08 FF2419667-3
Fredrikstad currently sit 8th with 26 points, narrowly ahead of Sarpsborg 08 FF in 9th with 24 points. The close standings add competitive tension, but Fredrikstad's slight points advantage and better recent form place them in a stronger position to capitalize on this fixture and consolidate their mid-table status.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Fredrikstad Over 2.5
80%Sarpsborg 08 FF Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.25, indicating moderately open matches. Sarpsborg 08 FF's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Fredrikstad's more conservative 40%, suggesting that while goals are possible, Fredrikstad's defensive approach may keep the total under tighter control in this encounter.

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