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Folgore Caratese crestFolgore Caratese
v
Giana Erminio crestGiana Erminio

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 20 Sep, 19:30

Folgore Caratese v Giana Erminio Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 18:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Folgore Caratese and Giana Erminio meet in Serie C - Girone A with both teams struggling near the bottom of the table. Folgore Caratese has collected 2 points with defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game, while Giana Erminio has 1 point and a similar defensive record. Both sides have shown attacking intent, with a 60% rate of matches featuring both teams scoring. This fixture promises an open contest as both teams seek to improve their standings and find offensive rhythm under pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate this season, indicating frequent mutual scoring.
  • Folgore Caratese concedes 1.6 goals per game, showing defensive fragility.
  • Giana Erminio also concedes 1.6 goals per game, suggesting chances for both sides.
  • Recent form shows both teams scoring in the majority of their matches.
  • The single head-to-head meeting averaged 2 goals with both teams scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a strong 70% chance for both teams to score, well above the implied market chance of 54%, indicating positive value at 1.85 . Both Folgore Caratese and Giana Erminio have conceded frequently this season, while maintaining moderate scoring rates, supporting an open game with goals at both ends. The 60% BTTS rate and recent form data reinforce the likelihood of mutual scoring, making this a compelling selection despite the teams' low league positions.

Model BTTS Chance70%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance54.1%
Positive
Folgore Caratese Goals Against1.6 per game
Positive
Giana Erminio Goals Against1.6 per game
Positive
BTTS Rate Both Teams60%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Folgore Caratese and Giana Erminio have shown defensive vulnerabilities and a tendency to concede, which supports the likelihood of both teams scoring. The data-driven BTTS rate of 60% combined with their offensive efforts suggests an open match where both sides can find the net, making BTTS a sensible tactical and statistical pick.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“The defensive frailties of both Folgore Caratese and Giana Erminio create fertile ground for goals at both ends, making the Both Teams to Score market a logical choice given their recent performances and tactical openness.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate this season, indicating frequent mutual scoring.

Folgore Caratese concedes 1.6 goals per game, showing defensive fragility.

Giana Erminio also concedes 1.6 goals per game, suggesting chances for both sides.

Recent form shows both teams scoring in the majority of their matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last matches and the single head-to-head meeting, the Over 2.5 Goals rate stands at 60%, indicating a tempo that favors multiple goals.
  • The teams' defensive gaps and transitional play contribute to this trend, suggesting the match will feature open play and goal-scoring opportunities consistent with an Over 2.5 goals environment.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Folgore Caratese1
Avg goals scored
Giana Erminio0.8
Folgore Caratese1.6
Avg goals conceded
Giana Erminio1.6
Folgore Caratese60%
BTTS rate
Giana Erminio60%
Folgore Caratese60%
Over 2.5 goals
Giana Erminio60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 34%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate this season, reflecting frequent matches where both sides score. Folgore Caratese and Giana Erminio each concede 1.6 goals per game, supporting an open game scenario. The single head-to-head meeting also averaged 2 goals with both teams scoring, reinforcing the expectation for goals at both ends in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Folgore Caratese to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Folgore Caratese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Giana Erminio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Giana Erminio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.85 with an implied chance of 54.1%, while the model estimates a 70% probability, indicating clear value. This price sensitivity suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of mutual scoring given both teams' defensive records and BTTS rates, making this a positive-value opportunity to consider with standard stakes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Folgore Caratese

DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 3L
17 Sep 2026A Pergolettese0-0
13 Sep 2026H Alcione2-3
07 Sep 2026A PRO Vercelli0-1
31 Aug 2026A Novara2-2
24 Aug 2026H Dolomiti Bellunesi1-2

Giana Erminio

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 4L
17 Sep 2026H Trento2-2
13 Sep 2026A Lecco0-1
06 Sep 2026H Dolomiti Bellunesi1-2
30 Aug 2026A Lumezzane0-1
22 Aug 2026H Albinoleffe1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 77% vs implied 78% · edge -1.2 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Folgore Caratese to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Folgore Caratese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Giana Erminio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Giana Erminio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form shows Folgore Caratese has scored 1 goal and conceded 1.6 per game, while Giana Erminio averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Both maintain a 60% BTTS rate, indicating consistent mutual scoring in recent matches. This trend underlines the likelihood of both teams finding the net again in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Folgore Caratese wins
1Draws
0Giana Erminio wins
16 Aug 2026Giana Erminio v Folgore Caratese1-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Folgore Caratese to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Giana Erminio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The only previous meeting between Folgore Caratese and Giana Erminio ended with an average of 2 goals and both teams scoring. Although the sample is limited, this direct encounter supports the expectation for mutual scoring and a competitive match with goal opportunities for both sides.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie C - Girone A

Folgore Caratese6
Played
Giana Erminio6
Folgore Caratese1
Avg goals for
Giana Erminio0.8
Folgore Caratese1.5
Avg goals against
Giana Erminio1.5
Folgore Caratese1
Clean sheets
Giana Erminio0
Best odds for this sectionFolgore Caratese to WinBet365 guide price · Model 49% vs implied 47% · edge +2.2 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Folgore Caratese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Giana Erminio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Giana Erminio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Season-long data reveals both teams have similar defensive records, conceding 1.6 goals per game, and moderate scoring outputs around 1 goal per match. Their 60% BTTS rates reflect a pattern of open games with goals at both ends, supporting the expectation for mutual scoring based on their season-long attacking and defensive profiles.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
18Folgore Caratese36033-3
19Giana Erminio26024-4
Both Folgore Caratese and Giana Erminio sit near the bottom of the Serie C - Girone A table, with 2 and 1 points respectively. This low standing creates pressure to secure points, which may encourage attacking risk-taking despite defensive weaknesses, increasing the chance of goals from both sides as they seek to improve their position.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Folgore Caratese Over 2.5
60%Giana Erminio Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last matches and the single head-to-head meeting, the Over 2.5 Goals rate stands at 60%, indicating a tempo that favors multiple goals. The teams' defensive gaps and transitional play contribute to this trend, suggesting the match will feature open play and goal-scoring opportunities consistent with an Over 2.5 goals environment.

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