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Treviso crestTreviso
v
Desenzano Calvina crestDesenzano Calvina

Serie C - Girone A | Mon 21 Sep, 19:30

Treviso v Desenzano Calvina Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 08:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Treviso and Desenzano Calvina meet in Serie C - Girone A with both sides showing contrasting recent form and offensive capabilities. Treviso sits comfortably in 7th place with 8 points, demonstrating a more potent attack averaging 1.4 goals per game, while Desenzano Calvina, ranked 15th with 5 points, has struggled to find the net consistently but remains competitive. Both teams have conceded an average of 1.2 goals per match, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities that could lead to goals at both ends. The fixture promises an open contest with attacking intent from Treviso and resilience from Desenzano Calvina, setting the stage for a match where both teams are likely to score.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Treviso averages 1.4 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate this season.
  • Desenzano Calvina concedes 1.2 goals per match and has a 60% BTTS rate.
  • Both teams have similar defensive records, conceding 1.2 goals on average.
  • Treviso’s recent matches have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, indicating open play.
  • No previous head-to-head data, increasing unpredictability but recent form favors BTTS.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a strong 76% chance for both teams to score, supported by Treviso's high BTTS rate of 80% and Desenzano Calvina's 60%. Both teams concede goals regularly, averaging 1.2 goals against per match, which aligns with the likelihood of goals at both ends. The attacking output and defensive openness suggest a match with scoring opportunities for both sides. The current at 2.1 offer positive value given the model's and the tactical context of an offensively inclined Treviso facing a defensively vulnerable Desenzano Calvina.

Treviso BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Desenzano Calvina BTTS Rate60%
Positive
Goals Conceded per Match (Both)1.2
Positive
Model BTTS Chance76%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance47.6%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown tendencies to concede and score this season, with Treviso’s offensive strength and Desenzano Calvina’s defensive frailties suggesting a match where both sides find the net. The data supports an open game with goals at both ends, making the BTTS selection a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“Treviso’s attacking prowess combined with Desenzano Calvina’s defensive lapses creates a compelling scenario for both teams to score. This fixture’s balance of offensive intent and defensive vulnerability underpins the BTTS pick.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Treviso averages 1.4 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate this season.

Desenzano Calvina concedes 1.2 goals per match and has a 60% BTTS rate.

Both teams have similar defensive records, conceding 1.2 goals on average.

Treviso’s recent matches have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, indicating open play.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the current season, Treviso’s matches have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Desenzano Calvina’s is 40%.
  • This trend suggests a moderately high tempo with goal-scoring opportunities, particularly from Treviso’s side, supporting a game likely to feature multiple goals and align with BTTS expectations.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Treviso

DWDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 1L
17 Sep 2026A Union Brescia2-2
13 Sep 2026H PRO Vercelli2-1
07 Sep 2026A Alcione1-1
31 Aug 2026H Lecco1-0
23 Aug 2026A Trento1-2

Desenzano Calvina

LWLDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
17 Sep 2026H Lecco1-3
13 Sep 2026A Arzignano Valchiampo2-1
06 Sep 2026A Union Brescia0-1
31 Aug 2026H Trento0-0
23 Aug 2026A PRO Vercelli1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 85% vs implied 82% · edge +2.8 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Load more odds for this section
Treviso to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
2
Check odds @ 2
Treviso Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 69%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 49%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Desenzano Calvina to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3
Check odds @ 3
Treviso’s recent form shows 8 points with a higher goals-for average (1.4) and a strong BTTS rate of 80%, indicating consistent offensive output. Desenzano Calvina, with 5 points and a 60% BTTS rate, has shown resilience but less scoring potency. This contrast suggests Treviso will press offensively while Desenzano Calvina can still find scoring chances, reinforcing the BTTS scenario.

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League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Treviso852211
16Desenzano Calvina55122-2
Treviso’s 7th place standing with 8 points contrasts with Desenzano Calvina’s 15th place and 5 points, reflecting differing season trajectories. While standings suggest Treviso’s superiority, the defensive records and scoring trends indicate that Desenzano Calvina can still breach defenses, supporting a BTTS outcome despite the points gap.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Treviso1.4
Avg goals scored
Desenzano Calvina0.8
Treviso1.2
Avg goals conceded
Desenzano Calvina1.2
Treviso80%
BTTS rate
Desenzano Calvina60%
Treviso60%
Over 2.5 goals
Desenzano Calvina40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Treviso’s 80% BTTS rate and Desenzano Calvina’s 60% indicate a strong trend of both teams scoring in their matches. Combined with an average of 1.2 goals conceded per side, this suggests a match environment conducive to goals at both ends rather than defensive stalemates.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Treviso to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
2
Check odds @ 2
Treviso Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 69%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Desenzano Calvina to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The current for Both Teams to Score at 2.1 reflect a market undervaluation compared to the model’s 76% chance, indicating positive value. This price sensitivity suggests the market may be underestimating Desenzano Calvina’s ability to score despite their lower league position, making the BTTS market an attractive proposition.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Treviso wins
0Draws
0Desenzano Calvina wins
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Treviso to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Desenzano Calvina to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3
Check odds @ 3
No previous head-to-head meetings exist between Treviso and Desenzano Calvina, removing historical matchup influence. This lack of direct data increases reliance on current form and season statistics, which favor an open game with goals from both teams given their offensive and defensive profiles.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie C - Girone A

Treviso5
Played
Desenzano Calvina5
Treviso1.4
Avg goals for
Desenzano Calvina0.8
Treviso1.2
Avg goals against
Desenzano Calvina1.2
Treviso1
Clean sheets
Desenzano Calvina1
Best odds for this sectionTreviso to WinBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 50% · edge +10.1 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Treviso Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 69%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Desenzano Calvina to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Season-long stats reveal Treviso as a more prolific attacking side with 1.4 goals per game, while Desenzano Calvina’s 0.8 goals per game is lower but still sufficient to contribute to BTTS outcomes. Both teams concede 1.2 goals per match, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that increase the likelihood of goals for both sides.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Treviso Over 2.5
40%Desenzano Calvina Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the current season, Treviso’s matches have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Desenzano Calvina’s is 40%. This trend suggests a moderately high tempo with goal-scoring opportunities, particularly from Treviso’s side, supporting a game likely to feature multiple goals and align with BTTS expectations.

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