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Serie C - Girone A | Mon 21 Sep, 19:30

Dolomiti Bellunesi v Lumezzane Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 08:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Dolomiti Bellunesi host Lumezzane in a Serie C - Girone A clash where the home side's recent solidity and higher league standing set a confident tone. Dolomiti Bellunesi have accumulated nine points with a notably stingy defense conceding just 0.4 goals per game, contrasting with Lumezzane's more porous backline allowing 1.2 goals per match. Both teams share a modest scoring rate of 0.8 goals per game, suggesting a tactical battle with limited offensive fireworks. The fixture carries importance for Dolomiti Bellunesi to consolidate their top-six position, while Lumezzane seek to climb from the lower reaches, making this a contest of defensive discipline versus opportunistic attack.

BT4Y best bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi to Win

  • Dolomiti Bellunesi rank 6th with 9 points, showing stronger league form than Lumezzane (14th, 5 points).
  • Dolomiti Bellunesi concede only 0.4 goals per game, indicating defensive resilience.
  • Both teams average 0.8 goals scored per game, pointing to a low-scoring encounter.
  • Recent form shows Dolomiti Bellunesi have a better points return and defensive record than Lumezzane.
  • Head-to-head meetings have averaged 2.5 goals, suggesting moderate scoring but not high-scoring affairs.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Dolomiti Bellunesi to win based on their superior league position, stronger recent form, and notably better defensive record conceding just 0.4 goals per game compared to Lumezzane's 1.2. The implied value at of 2.3 reflects a significant of 20.3%, supporting the home side's chance to secure victory in a tightly contested match. The data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing in this selection.

Model chance63.8%
Strong positive
Implied chance vs model20.3% value edge
Strong positive
Defensive record0.4 goals conceded per game (home) vs 1.2 (away)
Strong positive
Recent points9 vs 5
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Dolomiti Bellunesi's defensive solidity and superior league standing give them a tactical and statistical advantage over Lumezzane. Their ability to limit goals conceded while maintaining steady form suggests they are well placed to secure a home victory in this Serie C fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Dolomiti Bellunesi's disciplined defense and consistent form create a strong foundation for a home win, especially against a Lumezzane side that struggles defensively. This match should favor the home team's control and resilience.”

Key Data Signals

Dolomiti Bellunesi to Win evidence

Dolomiti Bellunesi rank 6th with 9 points, showing stronger league form than Lumezzane (14th, 5 points).

Dolomiti Bellunesi concede only 0.4 goals per game, indicating defensive resilience.

Both teams average 0.8 goals scored per game, pointing to a low-scoring encounter.

Recent form shows Dolomiti Bellunesi have a better points return and defensive record than Lumezzane.

What To Watch In The Data

Dolomiti Bellunesi to Win notes

  • In the two head-to-head matches, an average of 2.5 goals per game indicates moderate scoring but not an open, high-scoring affair.
  • This trend suggests a balanced tempo with chances for both sides but a likely controlled match environment favoring defensive organization.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Dolomiti Bellunesi0.8
Avg goals scored
Lumezzane0.8
Dolomiti Bellunesi0.4
Avg goals conceded
Lumezzane1.2
Dolomiti Bellunesi40%
BTTS rate
Lumezzane40%
Dolomiti Bellunesi40%
Over 2.5 goals
Lumezzane40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Both teams average only 0.8 goals per game and share a 40% BTTS rate, suggesting a match likely to feature limited scoring opportunities. The defensive strength of Dolomiti Bellunesi further supports a cautious game with few goals, aligning with a BTTS No or controlled goals scenario.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Dolomiti Bellunesi

DDWDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 0L
17 Sep 2026A Renate0-0
13 Sep 2026H Albinoleffe0-0
06 Sep 2026A Giana Erminio2-1
30 Aug 2026H Alcione0-0
24 Aug 2026A Folgore Caratese2-1

Lumezzane

DDLWL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
17 Sep 2026H Novara0-0
13 Sep 2026H Renate2-2
06 Sep 2026A Cittadella1-2
30 Aug 2026H Giana Erminio1-0
22 Aug 2026A Ospitaletto0-2
Market aligned with main pickDolomiti Bellunesi to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Dolomiti Bellunesi Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Dolomiti Bellunesi's recent form, with 9 points and a strong defensive record, contrasts with Lumezzane's 5 points and more goals conceded. This form disparity underlines Dolomiti Bellunesi's momentum and tactical stability, favoring their chances to win at home.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Dolomiti Bellunesi952302
15Lumezzane55122-2
Dolomiti Bellunesi's 6th place standing with 9 points demonstrates competitive consistency near the top of the table, whereas Lumezzane's 14th place and 5 points highlight their struggle to climb. The league context favors the home side's and tactical approach.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDolomiti Bellunesi to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Dolomiti Bellunesi Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The of 2.3 for a Dolomiti Bellunesi win offer clear value given the model's 63.8% win probability. This significant indicates the market underestimates the home side's chances, making this a price-sensitive but attractive selection without warnings.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Dolomiti Bellunesi wins
0Draws
1Lumezzane wins
22 Feb 2026Lumezzane v Dolomiti Bellunesi3-0
13 Oct 2025Dolomiti Bellunesi v Lumezzane2-0
Market aligned with main pickDolomiti Bellunesi to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The limited head-to-head sample of two matches shows an average of 2.5 goals, indicating neither side dominates scoring heavily. This modest scoring history supports a competitive match where Dolomiti Bellunesi's defensive strength could be decisive, but the sample size advises cautious interpretation.
Season team stats

Serie C - Girone A

Dolomiti Bellunesi5
Played
Lumezzane5
Dolomiti Bellunesi0.8
Avg goals for
Lumezzane0.8
Dolomiti Bellunesi0.4
Avg goals against
Lumezzane1.2
Dolomiti Bellunesi3
Clean sheets
Lumezzane2
Market aligned with main pickDolomiti Bellunesi to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Dolomiti Bellunesi Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Season-long statistics show Dolomiti Bellunesi excel defensively, conceding only 0.4 goals per game, while maintaining a steady but modest attack. Lumezzane's higher goals against average and lower points tally reflect defensive vulnerabilities that Dolomiti Bellunesi can exploit.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Dolomiti Bellunesi Over 2.5
40%Lumezzane Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the two head-to-head matches, an average of 2.5 goals per game indicates moderate scoring but not an open, high-scoring affair. This trend suggests a balanced tempo with chances for both sides but a likely controlled match environment favoring defensive organization.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.