Football Stats Hub

Fluminense crestFluminense
v
Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama

Serie A | Sun 06 Sep, 01:00

Fluminense v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Data last updated: Mon 07 Sep 2026, 16:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fluminense hosts Vasco DA Gama in a Serie A clash where the home side holds a clear advantage in league position and recent form. Fluminense sits fourth with 42 points, demonstrating stronger offensive output and defensive stability compared to Vasco DA Gama, who are 17th with 25 points. Fluminense's attacking play, led by prolific forwards, contrasts with Vasco DA Gama's struggles to convert chances. This match offers Fluminense a chance to consolidate their top-four standing, while Vasco DA Gama face pressure to improve results and avoid relegation threats. Tactical control and finishing efficiency will be key factors in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Fluminense to Win

  • Fluminense ranks 4th with 42 points; Vasco DA Gama is 17th with 25 points
  • Fluminense averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 1.4 per game
  • Vasco DA Gama scores 1.0 goal per game but concedes 1.8
  • Fluminense has a 67.9% to win, with strong value at 2.1
  • Both teams have a 60% rate for matches over 2.5 goals this season

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Fluminense to win with a 67.9% probability, reflecting their superior league standing and more effective attack and defense metrics. Fluminense's higher goal-scoring rate and better defensive record underpin this , alongside a positive of 20.3% at current . The home side's recent form and player contributions, especially from key attackers, further support this pick. No price warnings apply, making this a solid value bet based on statistical and tactical evidence.

Model Win Probability67.9%
Strong positive
Value Edge vs. Odds20.3% positive
Strong positive
Fluminense Goals For1.8 per game
Positive
Vasco DA Gama Goals Against1.8 per game
Positive
Recent Form PointsFluminense 9, Vasco DA Gama 5
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fluminense's tactical superiority and consistent scoring ability make them the clear favorites in this matchup. Their stronger defensive record and home advantage provide a solid foundation for victory, while Vasco DA Gama's struggles in attack and defense suggest difficulty in securing points here.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Fluminense's balanced attack and disciplined defense position them well to control this game, especially given Vasco DA Gama's defensive vulnerabilities and lower scoring output.”

Key Data Signals

Fluminense to Win evidence

Fluminense ranks 4th with 42 points; Vasco DA Gama is 17th with 25 points

Fluminense averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 1.4 per game

Vasco DA Gama scores 1.0 goal per game but concedes 1.8

Fluminense has a 67.9% to win, with strong value at 2.1

What To Watch In The Data

Fluminense to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.4 per game, aligning with both teams' 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season.
  • This trend suggests a moderately open game with chances for goals, driven by Fluminense's attacking intent and Vasco DA Gama's defensive lapses.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fluminense1.8
Avg goals scored
Vasco DA Gama1
Fluminense1.4
Avg goals conceded
Vasco DA Gama1.8
Fluminense80%
BTTS rate
Vasco DA Gama60%
Fluminense60%
Over 2.5 goals
Vasco DA Gama60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, and Fluminense's 80% BTTS rate suggests open play with goal-scoring opportunities at both ends. Vasco DA Gama's defensive frailties contribute to this trend, indicating a likelihood of goals from both sides and a potentially lively match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFluminense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Fluminense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The current of 2.1 for a Fluminense win offer a positive value opportunity given the model's 67.9% win probability. This significant indicates the market may be underestimating Fluminense's chances, making the bet attractive without price sensitivity concerns.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fluminense6.8
Avg corners for
Vasco DA Gama6.6
Fluminense11.4
Avg total corners
Vasco DA Gama10.2
Fluminense2.2
Avg yellow cards
Vasco DA Gama2
Fluminense17.4
Avg shots
Vasco DA Gama17.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +13.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams average similar corner counts around 6.7 per game, reflecting balanced territorial play. Fluminense's higher average shots on target (7.2) compared to Vasco DA Gama (4.6) highlight their offensive pressure. Card averages are moderate, suggesting disciplined play but with enough fouls to influence set-piece chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fluminense

DWWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 6D 1L
30 Aug 2026A Atletico Paranaense3-3
22 Aug 2026H Remo2-1
15 Aug 2026H Palmeiras3-2
09 Aug 2026A Botafogo1-1
30 Jul 2026H Bahia0-0

Vasco DA Gama

WLLDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
30 Aug 2026H Cruzeiro3-1
23 Aug 2026A Palmeiras1-4
16 Aug 2026H Santos0-3
09 Aug 2026A Bahia0-0
26 Jul 2026H Mirassol1-1
Market aligned with main pickFluminense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Fluminense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Fluminense's recent form shows 9 points gained with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, reflecting effective offense and solid defense. Vasco DA Gama's 5 points with 1 goal scored and 1.8 conceded per game reveal struggles in both attack and defense, supporting Fluminense's favored status.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Fluminense wins
2Draws
4Vasco DA Gama wins
06 Aug 2026Fluminense v Vasco DA Gama1-3
01 Aug 2026Vasco DA Gama v Fluminense0-0
19 Mar 2026Vasco DA Gama v Fluminense3-2
01 Mar 2026Fluminense v Vasco DA Gama1-1
22 Feb 2026Vasco DA Gama v Fluminense0-1
14 Dec 2025Fluminense v Vasco DA Gama1-0
Market aligned with main pickFluminense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The recent 10 meetings between these teams average 2.4 goals per match, indicating a moderately high-scoring fixture historically. While this supports the potential for goals, the head-to-head record does not strongly favor either side, making current form and season stats more decisive for this match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Fluminense26
Played
Vasco DA Gama25
Fluminense1.5
Avg goals for
Vasco DA Gama1.1
Fluminense1.2
Avg goals against
Vasco DA Gama1.6
Fluminense5
Clean sheets
Vasco DA Gama2
Market aligned with main pickFluminense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Fluminense Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Over the season, Fluminense's attack has been more productive, averaging 1.8 goals per game, while maintaining a tighter defense conceding 1.4 goals. Vasco DA Gama's lower scoring rate and higher goals conceded highlight defensive vulnerabilities and limited offensive threat, reinforcing the likelihood of a Fluminense win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Fluminense452612958
17Vasco DA Gama25256712-13
Fluminense's 4th place position with 42 points reflects consistent performance and competitiveness near the top of the table. Vasco DA Gama's 17th place and 25 points place them in relegation danger, adding pressure and possibly affecting their tactical approach, which may favor a cautious or error-prone game against a stronger opponent.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Fluminense Over 2.5
60%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.4 per game, aligning with both teams' 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season. This trend suggests a moderately open game with chances for goals, driven by Fluminense's attacking intent and Vasco DA Gama's defensive lapses.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Vitoria v GremioSerie A · Tue 08 Sep 00:00Fluminense v PlatenseCONMEBOL Libertadores · Tue 08 Sep 23:00Santa Fe v Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Tue 08 Sep 23:00

Competition and hubs

Serie A hubSerie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre