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Vitoria crestVitoria
v
Gremio crestGremio

Serie A | Tue 08 Sep, 00:00

Vitoria v Gremio Stats

Data last updated: Mon 07 Sep 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Vitoria hosting Gremio in a contest where Gremio's recent form and tactical setup suggest an edge. Gremio has accumulated seven points recently, showing more attacking intent and resilience compared to Vitoria's three points and lower goal output. Both teams sit mid-table, but Gremio's slightly better defensive record and more consistent goal threat position them as favorites. The match could hinge on Gremio's ability to exploit Vitoria's defensive vulnerabilities while managing the game tempo effectively away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Gremio to Win

  • Gremio holds a 66.9% to win with strong value at 3.5 .
  • Vitoria averages only 0.4 goals per game recently, while Gremio scores 1.2 on average.
  • Gremio's over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, indicating more open games compared to Vitoria's 40%.
  • Gremio averages more corners (6.67) and shots on target (2.33) than Vitoria, showing attacking pressure.
  • Key Gremio players like Carlos Vinícius and Tetê provide consistent goal threat and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Gremio to win due to their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and better attacking metrics such as shots and corners. Gremio's 66.9% win probability significantly exceeds the implied market chance of 28.6%, indicating strong value. Their ability to create chances and maintain defensive solidity away from home supports this . No data limitations affect this view, and the price offers a clear positive edge without requiring caution.

Recent formGremio 7 points vs Vitoria 3 points
Strong positive
Goal scoringGremio 1.2 goals/game vs Vitoria 0.4
Strong positive
Shots and cornersGremio leads in shots on target and corners
Positive
Model chance vs odds66.9% model chance vs 28.6% implied chance
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gremio's recent attacking form and ability to generate quality chances away from home make them the tactical and statistical favorite in this matchup. Their higher points tally and goal production reflect a team better equipped to secure victory against a struggling Vitoria side.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Gremio's balanced attack and solid defensive shape away from home create a strong foundation for a win here, especially given Vitoria's low scoring and defensive struggles.”

Key Data Signals

Gremio to Win evidence

Gremio holds a 66.9% to win with strong value at 3.5 .

Vitoria averages only 0.4 goals per game recently, while Gremio scores 1.2 on average.

Gremio's over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, indicating more open games compared to Vitoria's 40%.

Gremio averages more corners (6.67) and shots on target (2.33) than Vitoria, showing attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Gremio to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, supporting a moderate scoring environment.
  • Gremio's higher over 2.5 goals rate in recent games suggests this fixture could lean towards more open play and goal opportunities, especially given their attacking strengths and Vitoria's defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vitoria0.4
Avg goals scored
Gremio1.2
Vitoria2
Avg goals conceded
Gremio1.4
Vitoria20%
BTTS rate
Gremio60%
Vitoria40%
Over 2.5 goals
Gremio60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Gremio's recent matches show a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals and 60% BTTS, indicating openness and attacking intent. Vitoria's lower scoring and BTTS rates suggest they are less likely to contribute goals, making Gremio the main source of scoring. This dynamic supports a game with multiple goals, primarily from Gremio's side.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vitoria

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
29 Aug 2026A Atletico-MG1-2
23 Aug 2026H Bahia0-2
16 Aug 2026H Botafogo1-0
09 Aug 2026A Flamengo0-2
30 Jul 2026H Palmeiras0-4

Gremio

WLLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
30 Aug 2026H Chapecoense-sc3-1
23 Aug 2026A RB Bragantino0-1
16 Aug 2026A Atletico-MG0-3
08 Aug 2026H Sao Paulo2-1
26 Jul 2026H Fluminense1-1
Market aligned with main pickGremio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Gremio's recent form with 7 points and a higher goal output contrasts with Vitoria's 3 points and limited scoring. This form disparity reflects Gremio's momentum and , which often translates into better performances and results in away fixtures like this one.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
14Vitoria29258512-13
15Gremio28247710-5
Both teams are mid-table with Vitoria just above Gremio, but the tight points gap belies Gremio's recent upward form and better attacking metrics. The standings provide background context but the tactical and form factors weigh more heavily in predicting Gremio's advantage.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGremio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The for Gremio to win at 3.5 offer significant value compared to the model's 66.9% win probability. This discrepancy highlights a market underestimation of Gremio's chances, making the bet attractive. The price is not overly short, so it represents a clear positive value opportunity rather than a price-sensitive watch-only angle.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Vitoria5.4
Avg corners for
Gremio6.4
Vitoria10.2
Avg total corners
Gremio12.8
Vitoria2.2
Avg yellow cards
Gremio3
Vitoria13.4
Avg shots
Gremio11.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.1 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Load more odds for this section
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Gremio averages more corners (6.67) and shots on target (2.33) than Vitoria, reflecting territorial control and sustained pressure. Both teams have similar yellow card averages, but Gremio's fouling rate is slightly higher, indicating aggressive play that could lead to set-piece opportunities. This attacking pressure aligns with the expectation of Gremio controlling the match tempo.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Vitoria wins
4Draws
6Gremio wins
19 Mar 2026Gremio v Vitoria2-0
28 Sep 2025Gremio v Vitoria3-1
27 Apr 2025Vitoria v Gremio1-1
04 Dec 2024Vitoria v Gremio1-1
21 Jul 2024Gremio v Vitoria2-0
03 Aug 2021Gremio v Vitoria1-0
Market aligned with main pickGremio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 10 previous meetings between these teams average 2.2 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While this sample provides some context, recent form and tactical setups are more decisive here, as historical results only weakly support the expected Gremio win.
Season team stats

Serie A

Vitoria25
Played
Gremio24
Vitoria1
Avg goals for
Gremio1.1
Vitoria1.5
Avg goals against
Gremio1.3
Vitoria9
Clean sheets
Gremio5
Market aligned with main pickGremio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over the season, Gremio's attack has been more productive, averaging 1.2 goals per game compared to Vitoria's 0.4. Defensively, Gremio concedes fewer goals on average, indicating a more balanced team capable of controlling matches and capitalizing on chances to secure wins.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Vitoria Over 2.5
60%Gremio Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, supporting a moderate scoring environment. Gremio's higher over 2.5 goals rate in recent games suggests this fixture could lean towards more open play and goal opportunities, especially given their attacking strengths and Vitoria's defensive vulnerabilities.

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