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Santa Fe crestSanta Fe
v
Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Tue 08 Sep, 23:00

Santa Fe v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Data last updated: Mon 07 Sep 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This CONMEBOL Sudamericana clash features Vasco DA Gama visiting Santa Fe, with Vasco DA Gama currently in strong form and sitting second in their group. Vasco DA Gama have shown attacking intent and resilience, scoring more and conceding moderately, while Santa Fe have struggled to find the net consistently. The match offers Vasco DA Gama a chance to consolidate their position with a confident away performance, leveraging their offensive strengths against a Santa Fe side that has been less prolific and more cautious in recent outings.

BT4Y best bet

Vasco DA Gama to Win

  • Vasco DA Gama ranks 2nd in the group with 10 points, showing solid competition form.
  • Vasco DA Gama averages 2 goals per game with a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating attacking potency.
  • Santa Fe has a low BTTS rate of 25%, suggesting defensive solidity but limited scoring.
  • Vasco DA Gama averages 16.6 shots and 6 corners per game, reflecting sustained offensive pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Vasco DA Gama to win with a 55.6% chance, significantly higher than the implied 29.4% from current , indicating strong value. Vasco DA Gama's superior attacking statistics, including higher shot volume and goal scoring, combined with their solid recent form and group standing, underpin this . Santa Fe's lower scoring and shot metrics suggest they may struggle to contain Vasco DA Gama's offense. The data quality is robust, supporting a confident selection without major reservations.

Model Probability55.6% chance for Vasco DA Gama to win
Strong positive
Implied Odds Chance29.4% implied chance from odds
Strong positive
Recent FormVasco DA Gama has 11 points vs Santa Fe's 8
Positive
Attacking MetricsVasco DA Gama averages 16.6 shots/game vs Santa Fe's 12
Strong positive
Defensive MetricsSanta Fe concedes only 0.25 goals/game but scores less
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Vasco DA Gama's attacking edge and superior recent form make them the likely winners in this Sudamericana fixture. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain offensive pressure contrasts with Santa Fe's lower scoring output, suggesting Vasco DA Gama can secure the victory with effective execution and tactical discipline.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Vasco DA Gama's offensive consistency and group standing provide a compelling case for their win, especially given Santa Fe's limited scoring threat despite defensive resilience.”

Key Data Signals

Vasco DA Gama to Win evidence

Vasco DA Gama ranks 2nd in the group with 10 points, showing solid competition form.

Vasco DA Gama averages 2 goals per game with a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating attacking potency.

Santa Fe has a low BTTS rate of 25%, suggesting defensive solidity but limited scoring.

Vasco DA Gama averages 16.6 shots and 6 corners per game, reflecting sustained offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Vasco DA Gama to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, Vasco DA Gama's games have featured a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open, attacking football.
  • This trend suggests the fixture could produce multiple goals, driven by Vasco DA Gama's offensive style and Santa Fe's occasional defensive vulnerabilities.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Santa Fe2.25
Avg corners for
Vasco DA Gama6
Santa Fe6.75
Avg total corners
Vasco DA Gama9
Santa Fe0.75
Avg yellow cards
Vasco DA Gama2.4
Santa Fe12
Avg shots
Vasco DA Gama16.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 60% · edge -8.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Vasco DA Gama averages 6 corners and 16.6 shots per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Santa Fe's lower averages reflect less offensive threat. Vasco DA Gama's higher yellow card average suggests a combative style that may influence match tempo and physicality.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Santa Fe1.5
Avg goals scored
Vasco DA Gama2
Santa Fe0.25
Avg goals conceded
Vasco DA Gama0.6
Santa Fe25%
BTTS rate
Vasco DA Gama40%
Santa Fe25%
Over 2.5 goals
Vasco DA Gama60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 42% · edge +3.3 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 27%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Vasco DA Gama's 60% Over 2.5 goals rate and 40% BTTS rate suggest matches involving them tend to be open and goal-rich. Santa Fe's lower BTTS and Over 2.5 rates indicate a more defensive approach, but Vasco DA Gama's offensive pressure could tilt this game towards multiple goals and at least one team scoring.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The Vasco DA Gama to Win market shows clear value as the imply a 29.4% chance, while the model estimates a 55.6% probability. This discrepancy highlights a strong betting opportunity supported by Vasco DA Gama's form and attacking metrics. The price is attractive and justifies a standard stake without caution flags.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Santa Fe

DDWW
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
27 Aug 2026A River Plate1-1
20 Aug 2026H River Plate0-0
31 Jul 2026A Caracas FC3-0
24 Jul 2026H Caracas FC2-0

Vasco DA Gama

WDWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
20 Aug 2026A Olimpia4-1
13 Aug 2026H Olimpia0-0
29 Jul 2026H Independiente Medellin1-0
22 Jul 2026A Independiente Medellin2-2
27 May 2026H Barracas Central3-0
Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Recent form favors Vasco DA Gama, who have accumulated 11 points compared to Santa Fe's 8 in their last matches. Vasco DA Gama's ability to score more goals and maintain pressure contrasts with Santa Fe's more conservative output, suggesting momentum lies with the visitors heading into this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Santa Fe wins
0Draws
0Vasco DA Gama wins
Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
No previous head-to-head data exists between Santa Fe and Vasco DA Gama, so historical matchups provide no direct insight. Tactical form and current season data should guide expectations more than past meetings in this case.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Santa Fe4
Played
Vasco DA Gama10
Santa Fe1.8
Avg goals for
Vasco DA Gama1.7
Santa Fe0.3
Avg goals against
Vasco DA Gama0.9
Santa Fe3
Clean sheets
Vasco DA Gama5
Market aligned with main pickVasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Season-long data shows Vasco DA Gama as a more prolific attacking team, averaging 2 goals per game and maintaining a higher shot volume. Santa Fe's defensive solidity is notable, conceding only 0.25 goals per game, but their limited scoring reduces their winning chances against a potent Vasco DA Gama offense.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Vasco DA Gama1063124
Vasco DA Gama's second-place standing in the group reflects consistent performance and competitive edge, providing psychological and tactical advantages. Santa Fe's position is less clear, but the visitors' higher points tally underscores their stronger campaign and potential to control this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Santa Fe Over 2.5
60%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, Vasco DA Gama's games have featured a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open, attacking football. This trend suggests the fixture could produce multiple goals, driven by Vasco DA Gama's offensive style and Santa Fe's occasional defensive vulnerabilities.

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