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Fluminense crestFluminense
v
Independ. Rivadavia crestIndepend. Rivadavia

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Tue 11 Aug, 23:00

Fluminense v Independ. Rivadavia Stats

Data last updated: Mon 10 Aug 2026, 07:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This CONMEBOL Libertadores clash features Independ. Rivadavia visiting Fluminense in a high-stakes encounter. Rivadavia leads the group with a strong recent run, boasting 16 points and an aggressive attacking style, while Fluminense sits second with 8 points. Rivadavia's potent offense and solid defensive shape contrast with Fluminense's more balanced but less prolific form, setting up a tactical battle where the visitors' momentum and goal threat could prove decisive in this pivotal fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Independ. Rivadavia to Win

  • Rivadavia leads the group with 16 points, Fluminense has 8.
  • Rivadavia averages 2.8 goals per game, Fluminense 1.4.
  • Rivadavia has a 70% to win, with strong value at 4.5 .
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates: 100% for Independ. Rivadavia, 80% for Fluminense.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Independ. Rivadavia to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and group standing advantage. The of 4.5 offer significant value given the implied chance is only 22.2%. Rivadavia's attacking players like A. Crego contribute high shot volumes and goal threat, reinforcing the in their ability to secure victory. No data limitations reduce in this pick.

Model chance70%
Strong positive
Implied chance vs model22.2% vs 70%
Strong positive
Recent goals per game2.8 (Independ. Rivadavia) vs 1.4 (Fluminense)
Strong positive
Group standingsIndepend. Rivadavia 1st vs Fluminense 2nd
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Rivadavia’s dynamic attack and current form make them the likely winners in this Libertadores fixture. Their higher goal output and group leadership provide a strong tactical and statistical basis for backing their victory over Fluminense, who have struggled to match their offensive intensity.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Rivadavia’s offensive firepower and momentum position them well to upset Fluminense despite the away setting, making their win a compelling bet in this Libertadores clash.”

Key Data Signals

Independ. Rivadavia to Win evidence

Rivadavia leads the group with 16 points, Fluminense has 8.

Rivadavia averages 2.8 goals per game, Fluminense 1.4.

Rivadavia has a 70% to win, with strong value at 4.5 .

Both teams have high BTTS rates: 100% for Independ. Rivadavia, 80% for Fluminense.

What To Watch In The Data

Independ. Rivadavia to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored was 2.5 per game, indicating a moderately open match-up.
  • Rivadavia’s recent matches show an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting a fast tempo and attacking intent that could drive a high-scoring encounter in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fluminense1.4
Avg goals scored
Independ. Rivadavia2.8
Fluminense1.4
Avg goals conceded
Independ. Rivadavia1.2
Fluminense80%
BTTS rate
Independ. Rivadavia100%
Fluminense60%
Over 2.5 goals
Independ. Rivadavia80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 80%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams have high BTTS rates, with Independ. Rivadavia at 100% and Fluminense at 80%, indicating an open game with goals expected at both ends. Rivadavia’s average of 2.8 goals per game and Fluminense’s 1.4 suggest a likely high-scoring match, supporting over 2.5 goals and BTTS outcomes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickIndepend. Rivadavia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Independ. Rivadavia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Rivadavia to Win market offers clear value with at 4.5 against a of 70%. This large reflects the visitors’ superior recent form and goal-scoring ability. The price is attractive for bettors seeking a high-reward option backed by strong data signals, making it a standout selection in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fluminense2.2
Avg corners for
Independ. Rivadavia3.2
Fluminense4.4
Avg total corners
Independ. Rivadavia7.2
Fluminense2.6
Avg yellow cards
Independ. Rivadavia2.6
Fluminense13.8
Avg shots
Independ. Rivadavia12.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 29%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Rivadavia averages more corners (3.2) and shots on target (5.2) than Fluminense, reflecting their attacking pressure and territorial control. Both teams have similar yellow card averages (2.6), indicating a balanced discipline profile. The shot volume and corner count suggest sustained offensive efforts by Independ. Rivadavia, increasing scoring chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fluminense

WWDLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 2L
28 May 2026H Deportivo La Guaira3-1
19 May 2026H Bolívar2-1
07 May 2026A Independ. Rivadavia1-1
30 Apr 2026A Bolívar0-2
16 Apr 2026H Independ. Rivadavia1-2

Independ. Rivadavia

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 0L
28 May 2026A Bolívar3-1
21 May 2026A Deportivo La Guaira4-2
07 May 2026H Fluminense1-1
30 Apr 2026H Deportivo La Guaira4-1
16 Apr 2026A Fluminense2-1
Market aligned with main pickIndepend. Rivadavia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Independ. Rivadavia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Rivadavia’s recent form is strong, accumulating 13 points with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate and 100% BTTS rate, highlighting their offensive consistency. Fluminense’s form is less prolific with 7 points and a 60% over 2.5 rate. This momentum gap favors Independ. Rivadavia’s ability to control the match and secure victory.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Fluminense wins
1Draws
1Independ. Rivadavia wins
07 May 2026Independ. Rivadavia v Fluminense1-1
16 Apr 2026Fluminense v Independ. Rivadavia1-2
Market aligned with main pickIndepend. Rivadavia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The limited head-to-head sample of two matches shows a moderate average of 2.5 goals per game, providing some background but not a definitive trend. Current form and team dynamics carry more weight here, with Independ. Rivadavia’s recent offensive surge being a stronger indicator for this match outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Fluminense6
Played
Independ. Rivadavia6
Fluminense1.2
Avg goals for
Independ. Rivadavia2.5
Fluminense1.2
Avg goals against
Independ. Rivadavia1
Fluminense1
Clean sheets
Independ. Rivadavia1
Market aligned with main pickIndepend. Rivadavia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Independ. Rivadavia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over the season, Independ. Rivadavia leads with 2.8 goals scored per game and concedes 1.2, showing a potent attack combined with a relatively solid defense. Fluminense’s balanced 1.4 goals scored and conceded per game reflect a less aggressive style, reinforcing Independ. Rivadavia’s edge in both scoring and defensive stability for this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Independ. Rivadavia1665109
2Fluminense862220
Rivadavia sits atop the group with 16 points, creating pressure on Fluminense who are second with 8 points. This standing difference adds urgency for Fluminense but also highlights Independ. Rivadavia’s control of the group, suggesting they enter this match with and tactical clarity to maintain their lead.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Fluminense Over 2.5
80%Independ. Rivadavia Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored was 2.5 per game, indicating a moderately open match-up. Rivadavia’s recent matches show an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting a fast tempo and attacking intent that could drive a high-scoring encounter in this fixture.

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