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Palmeiras crestPalmeiras
v
Cerro Porteno crestCerro Porteno

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 21 May, 01:30

Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno Stats

Data last updated: Wed 08 Jul 2026, 02:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras face Cerro Porteno in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thu 21 May, 01:30. Cerro Porteño have conceded only two goals in four Libertadores matches this season, the best defensive record in Group F. Palmeiras remain unbeaten in their last seven Copa Libertadores meetings against Cerro Porteño, securing six wins in that period.

BT4Y best bet

Rationale: Palmeiras to Win & Under 2

  • At 5/1, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 17%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Palmeiras remain highly controlling and cautious, with each of their last seven fixtures finishing with under 2.5 goals.
  • Palmeiras are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.5 goals per match, with Cerro Porteno at 0.75.
  • BTTS rates of 75% for Palmeiras and 25% for Cerro Porteno show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Under that scoring level sits against roughly 17% implied by the current price. Palmeiras are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Cerro Porteno at 0.75. Palmeiras remain highly controlling and cautious, with each of their last seven fixtures finishing with under 2.5 goals.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 17% implied
Strong positive
Palmeiras are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.5.Visible data support
Positive
BTTS rates of 75% for Palmeiras and 25% for Cerro.Visible data support
Positive
Palmeiras remain highly controlling and cautious, with each of.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because palmeiras remain highly controlling and cautious, with each of their last seven fixtures finishing with under 2.5 goals. Palmeiras are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Cerro Porteno at 0.75. There is, however, a slight contradiction surrounding Palmeiras right now.

Main risk

There is, however, a slight contradiction surrounding Palmeiras right now.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Palmeiras remain highly controlling and cautious, with each of their last seven fixtures finishing with under 2.5 goals.

Palmeiras are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.5 goals per match, with Cerro Porteno at 0.75.

BTTS rates of 75% for Palmeiras and 25% for Cerro Porteno show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Palmeiras7.75
Avg corners for
Cerro Porteno3.33
Palmeiras11.75
Avg total corners
Cerro Porteno9
Palmeiras1
Avg yellow cards
Cerro Porteno2.33
Palmeiras20.5
Avg shots
Cerro Porteno10.33
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 44% · edge +15.2 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

full betting preview for Palmeiras v Cerro Portenocorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Palmeiras1.5
Avg goals scored
Cerro Porteno0.75
Palmeiras0.75
Avg goals conceded
Cerro Porteno0.5
Palmeiras75%
BTTS rate
Cerro Porteno25%
Palmeiras25%
Over 2.5 goals
Cerro Porteno0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 57% · edge +8.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 18% · edge +48.5 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
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Cerro Porteno Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Cerro Porteno to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Palmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Palmeiras

WDWD
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
05 May 2026A Sporting Cristal2-0
30 Apr 2026A Cerro Porteno1-1
16 Apr 2026H Sporting Cristal2-1
09 Apr 2026A Junior1-1

Cerro Porteno

WDWL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
08 May 2026A Junior1-0
30 Apr 2026H Palmeiras1-1
14 Apr 2026H Junior1-0
09 Apr 2026A Sporting Cristal0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 30% · edge +30.1 pts
3.38
Check odds @ 3.38
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Cerro Porteno Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
6
Check odds @ 6
Cerro Porteno to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 79%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
Palmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Palmeiras wins
1Draws
0Cerro Porteno wins
30 Apr 2026Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras1-1
08 May 2025Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras0-2
10 Apr 2025Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno1-0
24 May 2023Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras0-3
21 Apr 2023Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno2-1
06 Jul 2022Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno5-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 18% · edge +48.5 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
Cerro Porteno to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Palmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras6
Played
Cerro Porteno6
Palmeiras1.7
Avg goals for
Cerro Porteno1
Palmeiras0.8
Avg goals against
Cerro Porteno0.3
Palmeiras1
Clean sheets
Cerro Porteno4
Best odds for this sectionCerro Porteno Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 17% · edge +25.3 pts
6
Check odds @ 6
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Cerro Porteno to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
Palmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Season data supports Cerro Porteno Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Cerro Porteno1364114
2Palmeiras1163215
CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Palmeiras Over 2.5
0%Cerro Porteno Over 2.5
2.71H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Palmeiras sit at 25% and Cerro Porteno sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2.71 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno prediction

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Next step

Betting context

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