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Palmeiras crestPalmeiras
v
Cerro Porteno crestCerro Porteno

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Wed 12 Aug, 23:00

Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno Stats

Data last updated: Wed 19 Aug 2026, 15:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras face Cerro Porteno in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wed 12 Aug, 23:00. SE Palmeiras have demonstrated a stronger goal-scoring record in the tournament, netting ten goals in six group matches compared to Cerro Porteño's six.

BT4Y lean · price warning

SE Palmeiras to Win

  • At 3/4, SE Palmeiras to Win implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 32%.
  • Cerro have conceded fewer goals, Palmeiras have scored more, and neither side has managed more than one goal in any of their three meetings.
  • Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Palmeiras.
  • Cerro Porteno have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the SE Palmeiras to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

SE Palmeiras to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 57% while the model sits nearer 32% (-25.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 2.62.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 32% for SE Palmeiras to Win sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Palmeiras. Cerro have conceded fewer goals, Palmeiras have scored more, and neither side has managed more than one goal in any of their three meetings.

Model chance vs price32% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Negative
Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 13.Visible data support
Positive
Cerro Porteno have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Cerro have conceded fewer goals, Palmeiras have scored more.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Palmeiras Win is the preferred angle because cerro have conceded fewer goals, Palmeiras have scored more, and neither side has managed more than one goal in any of their three meetings this year. Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Palmeiras. Palmeiras scored considerably more freely during the same phase, but also allowed five.

Main risk

Palmeiras scored considerably more freely during the same phase, but also allowed five.

Key Data Signals

SE Palmeiras to Win evidence

Cerro have conceded fewer goals, Palmeiras have scored more, and neither side has managed more than one goal.

Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Palmeiras.

Cerro Porteno have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Palmeiras Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

SE Palmeiras to Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Palmeiras5.2
    Avg corners for
    Cerro Porteno3.8
    Palmeiras10
    Avg total corners
    Cerro Porteno8.6
    Palmeiras1.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Cerro Porteno2.6
    Palmeiras17.6
    Avg shots
    Cerro Porteno9.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 60% · edge -4.2 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
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    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Palmeiras1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Cerro Porteno1.2
    Palmeiras0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Cerro Porteno0.2
    Palmeiras60%
    BTTS rate
    Cerro Porteno20%
    Palmeiras40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Cerro Porteno0%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 56% · edge +10.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
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    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 32% vs implied 75% · edge -43.3 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Palmeiras Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.13
    Check odds @ 1.13
    Palmeiras to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Palmeiras

    WLWDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 1L
    28 May 2026H Junior4-1
    21 May 2026H Cerro Porteno0-1
    05 May 2026A Sporting Cristal2-0
    30 Apr 2026A Cerro Porteno1-1
    16 Apr 2026H Sporting Cristal2-1

    Cerro Porteno

    WWWDW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 1L
    28 May 2026H Sporting Cristal2-0
    21 May 2026A Palmeiras1-0
    08 May 2026A Junior1-0
    30 Apr 2026H Palmeiras1-1
    14 Apr 2026H Junior1-0
    Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 32% vs implied 75% · edge -43.3 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.07
    Check odds @ 1.07
    Palmeiras Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.13
    Check odds @ 1.13
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6Palmeiras wins
    1Draws
    1Cerro Porteno wins
    21 May 2026Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno0-1
    30 Apr 2026Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras1-1
    08 May 2025Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras0-2
    10 Apr 2025Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno1-0
    24 May 2023Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras0-3
    21 Apr 2023Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno2-1
    Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 32% vs implied 75% · edge -43.3 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Palmeiras to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Libertadores

    Palmeiras7
    Played
    Cerro Porteno7
    Palmeiras1.6
    Avg goals for
    Cerro Porteno1
    Palmeiras0.9
    Avg goals against
    Cerro Porteno0.4
    Palmeiras1
    Clean sheets
    Cerro Porteno4
    Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 32% vs implied 75% · edge -43.3 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Palmeiras Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.13
    Check odds @ 1.13
    Season data supports Palmeiras to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Cerro Porteno1364114
    2Palmeiras1163215
    CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Palmeiras Over 2.5
    0%Cerro Porteno Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Palmeiras sit at 40% and Cerro Porteno sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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