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Palmeiras crestPalmeiras
v
Cerro Porteno crestCerro Porteno

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Wed 12 Aug, 23:00

Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno Stats

Data last updated: Mon 28 Sep 2026, 22:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras face Cerro Porteno in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wed 12 Aug, 23:00. SE Palmeiras have demonstrated a stronger goal-scoring record in the tournament, netting ten goals in six group matches compared to Cerro Porteño's six.

BT4Y lean · price warning

SE Palmeiras to Win

  • At 3/4, SE Palmeiras to Win implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 32%.
  • Cerro have conceded fewer goals, Palmeiras have scored more, and neither side has managed more than one goal in any of their three meetings.
  • Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Palmeiras.
  • Cerro Porteno have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the SE Palmeiras to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

SE Palmeiras to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 57% while the model sits nearer 32% (-25.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 2.62.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 32% for SE Palmeiras to Win sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Palmeiras. Cerro have conceded fewer goals, Palmeiras have scored more, and neither side has managed more than one goal in any of their three meetings.

Model chance vs price32% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Negative
Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 13.Visible data support
Positive
Cerro Porteno have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Cerro have conceded fewer goals, Palmeiras have scored more.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Palmeiras Win is the preferred angle because cerro have conceded fewer goals, Palmeiras have scored more, and neither side has managed more than one goal in any of their three meetings this year. Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Palmeiras. Palmeiras scored considerably more freely during the same phase, but also allowed five.

Main risk

Palmeiras scored considerably more freely during the same phase, but also allowed five.

Key Data Signals

SE Palmeiras to Win evidence

Cerro have conceded fewer goals, Palmeiras have scored more, and neither side has managed more than one goal.

Cerro Porteno have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Palmeiras.

Cerro Porteno have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Palmeiras Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

SE Palmeiras to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Palmeiras1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Cerro Porteno1.2
    Palmeiras0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Cerro Porteno0.2
    Palmeiras60%
    BTTS rate
    Cerro Porteno20%
    Palmeiras40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Cerro Porteno0%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 56% · edge +10.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    full betting preview for Palmeiras v Cerro Portenocorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 32% vs implied 75% · edge -43.3 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Palmeiras Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.13
    Check odds @ 1.13
    Palmeiras to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Palmeiras

    WLWDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 1L
    28 May 2026H Junior4-1
    21 May 2026H Cerro Porteno0-1
    05 May 2026A Sporting Cristal2-0
    30 Apr 2026A Cerro Porteno1-1
    16 Apr 2026H Sporting Cristal2-1

    Cerro Porteno

    WWWDW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 1L
    28 May 2026H Sporting Cristal2-0
    21 May 2026A Palmeiras1-0
    08 May 2026A Junior1-0
    30 Apr 2026H Palmeiras1-1
    14 Apr 2026H Junior1-0
    Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 32% vs implied 75% · edge -43.3 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.07
    Check odds @ 1.07
    Palmeiras Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.13
    Check odds @ 1.13
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Palmeiras Over 2.5
    0%Cerro Porteno Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Palmeiras sit at 40% and Cerro Porteno sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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