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Flamengo crestFlamengo
v
Coritiba crestCoritiba

Serie A | Sat 30 May, 20:00

Flamengo v Coritiba Stats

Data last updated: Sat 20 Jun 2026, 14:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Flamengo face Coritiba in Serie A on Sat 30 May, 20:00. Flamengo look to reassert dominance at the Maracanã following their league setback against Palmeiras.

BT4Y best bet

Win over Cusco proves their underlying technical resilience remain entirely intact

  • At 23/10, Flamengo Win implies roughly 30%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 49%.
  • Historical trends heavily favour the hosts, who have won seven of the last eight encounters against Coritiba, including a 3-2 away success in recent.
  • Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Coritiba.
  • Flamengo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Flamengo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Flamengo sit 2 in the table, while Coritiba sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 49% for Flamengo Win sits against roughly 30% implied by the current price. Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Coritiba. Historical trends heavily favour the hosts, who have won seven of the last eight encounters against Coritiba, including a 3-2 away success in recent.

Model chance vs price49% model chance against roughly 30% implied
Strong positive
Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Flamengo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Historical trends heavily favour the hosts, who have won.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Flamengo Win is the preferred angle because historical trends heavily favour the hosts, who have won seven of the last eight encounters against Coritiba, including a 3-2 away success in recent meetings. Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Coritiba. Saturday night at the Maracanã brings together two sides arriving with very different emotions but similar ambitions.

Main risk

Saturday night at the Maracanã brings together two sides arriving with very different emotions but similar ambitions.

Key Data Signals

Flamengo Win evidence

Historical trends heavily favour the hosts, who have won seven of the last eight encounters against Coritiba, including.

Flamengo have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Coritiba.

Flamengo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Flamengo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Flamengo sit 2 in the table, while Coritiba sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Flamengo Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Flamengo1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Coritiba1.8
    Flamengo1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Coritiba1.8
    Flamengo40%
    BTTS rate
    Coritiba60%
    Flamengo60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Coritiba80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 50% · edge +16.7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 77%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 70% · edge -21.7 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Flamengo to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Flamengo5.4
    Avg corners for
    Coritiba3
    Flamengo10.8
    Avg total corners
    Coritiba7.8
    Flamengo3.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Coritiba1.2
    Flamengo15
    Avg shots
    Coritiba10
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.5 pts
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Flamengo

    LDWDW
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    24 May 2026H Palmeiras0-3
    17 May 2026A Atletico Paranaense1-1
    10 May 2026A Gremio1-0
    03 May 2026H Vasco DA Gama2-2
    27 Apr 2026A Atletico-MG4-0

    Coritiba

    WWDLL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    26 May 2026H Bahia3-2
    17 May 2026A Santos3-0
    09 May 2026H Internacional2-2
    02 May 2026A Vitoria1-4
    26 Apr 2026A Gremio0-1
    Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 70% · edge -21.7 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
    1.08
    Check odds @ 1.08
    Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    8Flamengo wins
    0Draws
    2Coritiba wins
    20 Aug 2023Coritiba v Flamengo2-3
    16 Apr 2023Flamengo v Coritiba3-0
    06 Nov 2022Coritiba v Flamengo1-0
    16 Jul 2022Flamengo v Coritiba2-0
    17 Jun 2021Flamengo v Coritiba2-0
    10 Jun 2021Coritiba v Flamengo0-1
    Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 70% · edge -21.7 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Flamengo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Flamengo17
    Played
    Coritiba18
    Flamengo1.8
    Avg goals for
    Coritiba1.3
    Flamengo0.9
    Avg goals against
    Coritiba1.3
    Flamengo7
    Clean sheets
    Coritiba5
    Market aligned with main pickFlamengo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 70% · edge -21.7 pts
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Load more odds for this section
    Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Season data supports Flamengo to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Flamengo3417104315
    7Coritiba26187560
    Flamengo sit in position 2, while Coritiba sit in position 7, so table pressure belongs in the Flamengo Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Flamengo Over 2.5
    80%Coritiba Over 2.5
    2.3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Flamengo sit at 60% and Coritiba sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.