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Fiorentina crestFiorentina
v
Frosinone crestFrosinone

Serie A | Sat 29 Aug, 17:30

Fiorentina v Frosinone Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fiorentina return to the Stadio Artemio Franchi aiming to rebound from a heavy 4-0 defeat at Roma, relying on their strong home form where they remain unbeaten in eight league matches and have historically kept clean sheets against promoted teams. Frosinone arrive with a resilient away record, having finished last season unbeaten in their final 15 away games, and possess attacking threats led by Giacomo Calo. Both sides face squad uncertainties, including Moise Kean's fitness for Fiorentina and transfer-linked absences for Frosinone, setting up a tactical clash between Fiorentina's home stability and Frosinone's road resilience.

BT4Y match pick

Fiorentina to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Fiorentina unbeaten in last 8 home league matches, strong defensive record against promoted sides at home
  • Frosinone ended last season on a 15-match unbeaten away streak with 9 wins and 6 draws
  • Frosinone have failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 consecutive matches across all competitions
  • Fiorentina’s Moise Kean uncertain for the match, with Mateo Pellegrino expected to lead the attack
  • Frosinone created multiple chances against Juventus despite a 1-0 loss, showing attacking intent

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The combination of Fiorentina's solid home form and Frosinone's consistent away scoring ability underpins this selection. Fiorentina's unbeaten home streak and history of clean sheets against promoted teams contrast with Frosinone's defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded in five straight matches. Although the current are shorter than the model's chance suggests, the football read remains strong due to tactical matchups and attacking potential on both sides. Reduced staking is advised given the price sensitivity, with potential for improved value if team news or line-ups clarify.

Home FormFiorentina unbeaten in 8 home league matches
Strong positive
Away ResilienceFrosinone unbeaten in last 15 away matches last season
Positive
Defensive FrailtyFrosinone failed to keep clean sheet in 5 consecutive matches
Positive
Price SensitivityCurrent odds imply 30.3% chance vs model 8.8% chance
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fiorentina's strong home record and tactical control at the Franchi provide a solid foundation for victory, while Frosinone's proven ability to score away from home ensures both teams will find the net. This combination reflects the contrasting strengths and weaknesses of both sides, making the bet a compelling football choice despite recent uncertainties.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and form analysis

“Fiorentina’s home resilience combined with Frosinone’s attacking threat on the road creates a dynamic fixture where both teams scoring is highly plausible, even as the hosts seek to restore order after a tough opening defeat.”

Key Data Signals

Fiorentina to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Fiorentina unbeaten in last 8 home league matches, strong defensive record against promoted sides at home

Frosinone ended last season on a 15-match unbeaten away streak with 9 wins and 6 draws

Frosinone have failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 consecutive matches across all competitions

Fiorentina’s Moise Kean uncertain for the match, with Mateo Pellegrino expected to lead the attack

What To Watch In The Data

Fiorentina to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.67, indicating a moderately open fixture.
  • Recent trends show Fiorentina’s home games often surpass 2.5 goals, while Frosinone’s matches have varied.
  • The tempo and attacking intent from both sides suggest a match likely to feature multiple goals, aligning with the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fiorentina3
Avg corners for
Frosinone3
Fiorentina5
Avg total corners
Frosinone15
Fiorentina2
Avg yellow cards
Frosinone2
Fiorentina9
Avg shots
Frosinone11
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both Fiorentina and Frosinone average three corners per game, indicating balanced territorial exchanges. Fiorentina's higher shot volume and shots on target reflect their attacking pressure, while both teams maintain moderate discipline with average yellow cards around two per match, suggesting a competitive but controlled encounter with opportunities from set pieces and open play.

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Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionsFiorentina v Frosinone predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fiorentina0
Avg goals scored
Frosinone0
Fiorentina4
Avg goals conceded
Frosinone1
Fiorentina0%
BTTS rate
Frosinone0%
Fiorentina100%
Over 2.5 goals
Frosinone0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have shown the ability to score recently, with Fiorentina's home matches often featuring multiple goals and Frosinone failing to keep clean sheets in five consecutive games. This suggests a match likely to see goals at both ends, supported by Frosinone's attacking chances created even in defeat and Fiorentina's need to respond offensively after conceding four goals last week.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFiorentina Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 45% vs implied 76% · edge -30.8 pts
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Fiorentina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The market price of 3.3 for Fiorentina to Win & Both Teams to Score is shorter than the model's estimated chance, indicating a price-sensitive situation. While the do not offer clear value, the football context of home strength versus away scoring threat justifies the selection as a tactical pick rather than a pure value bet. drift or clearer team news could enhance the value proposition.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fiorentina

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
24 Aug 2026A AS Roma0-4

Frosinone

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
23 Aug 2026H Juventus0-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 86% · edge -32.3 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Fiorentina Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Fiorentina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Fiorentina have yet to earn points this season and suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat, highlighting defensive issues. Conversely, Frosinone lost narrowly 1-0 but showed attacking intent and resilience. Both teams’ recent form suggests a match where Fiorentina’s home advantage and need for improvement meet Frosinone’s solid away performances and scoring ability, supporting a competitive game with goals from both sides.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Fiorentina wins
3Draws
1Frosinone wins
11 Feb 2024Fiorentina v Frosinone5-1
28 Sep 2023Frosinone v Fiorentina1-1
07 Apr 2019Fiorentina v Frosinone0-1
09 Nov 2018Frosinone v Fiorentina1-1
20 Mar 2016Frosinone v Fiorentina0-0
01 Nov 2015Fiorentina v Frosinone4-1
Market aligned with main pickFiorentina to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 28% vs implied 61% · edge -32.7 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The six previous meetings between Fiorentina and Frosinone average 2.67 goals per game, with Fiorentina winning most encounters including a 5-1 home victory last season. While historical results favor Fiorentina, recent squad changes and Frosinone’s strong away form mean past meetings offer background context rather than definitive prediction support.
Season team stats

Serie A

Fiorentina1
Played
Frosinone1
Fiorentina0
Avg goals for
Frosinone0
Fiorentina4
Avg goals against
Frosinone1
Fiorentina0
Clean sheets
Frosinone0
Market aligned with main pickFiorentina Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 45% vs implied 76% · edge -30.8 pts
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Load more odds for this section
Fiorentina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Fiorentina’s season stats reveal a strong home defensive record against promoted teams but a broader struggle with only one win in seven Serie A matches. Frosinone’s season data reflects their defensive vulnerabilities, with no clean sheets in recent games, yet their attacking stats and away form remain robust. These contrasting season profiles underpin the expectation of a home win with goals at both ends.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
14Frosinone01001-1
19Fiorentina01001-4
Fiorentina sits near the bottom of the Serie A table after an opening loss, increasing pressure to capitalize on home advantage. Frosinone’s mid-table position and unbeaten away streak from last season provide in their ability to score on the road. The standings highlight the stakes for Fiorentina to recover points and Frosinone to maintain their competitive away form.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Fiorentina Over 2.5
0%Frosinone Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.67, indicating a moderately open fixture. Recent trends show Fiorentina’s home games often surpass 2.5 goals, while Frosinone’s matches have varied. The tempo and attacking intent from both sides suggest a match likely to feature multiple goals, aligning with the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Fiorentina v Frosinone prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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