Football Stats Hub

Fiorentina crestFiorentina
v
Napoli crestNapoli

Serie A | Sun 20 Sep, 11:30

Fiorentina v Napoli Stats

Data last updated: Mon 12 Oct 2026, 03:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fiorentina face Napoli in Serie A on Sun 20 Sep, 11:30. Napoli have scored in eight of their last nine league fixtures and seven in succession, directly targeting the weakest area of Fiorentina’s season so far.

BT4Y best bet

BTTS Yes

  • At 8/13, BTTS Yes implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 67%.
  • Selection: BTTS Yes.
  • Fiorentina show a 50% BTTS rate and Napoli show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Fiorentina average 1.25 goals scored and Napoli average 1.5, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 67% for BTTS Yes sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. Fiorentina show a 50% BTTS rate and Napoli show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: BTTS Yes.

Model chance vs price67% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Neutral
Fiorentina show a 50% BTTS rate and Napoli show a.Visible data support
Positive
Fiorentina average 1.25 goals scored and Napoli average 1.5, so.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: BTTS Yes.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: BTTS Yes. Fiorentina show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Napoli show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Scoring four at Venezia was enough to overcome that weakness, but relying on similar attacking output is hardly a sustainable solution.

Main risk

Scoring four at Venezia was enough to overcome that weakness, but relying on similar attacking output is hardly a sustainable solution.

Key Data Signals

BTTS Yes evidence

Selection: BTTS Yes.

Fiorentina show a 50% BTTS rate and Napoli show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Fiorentina average 1.25 goals scored and Napoli average 1.5, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS Yes notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fiorentina1.25
Avg goals scored
Napoli1.5
Fiorentina2.75
Avg goals conceded
Napoli1.25
Fiorentina50%
BTTS rate
Napoli50%
Fiorentina100%
Over 2.5 goals
Napoli50%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Napoli Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Napoli to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Fiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fiorentina

WLLL
Last 51W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 3L
11 Sep 2026A Venezia4-2
05 Sep 2026H Torino1-2
29 Aug 2026H Frosinone0-3
24 Aug 2026A AS Roma0-4

Napoli

WLLW
Last 52W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 2L
13 Sep 2026H Bologna1-0
05 Sep 2026A Inter2-3
30 Aug 2026H Como1-2
22 Aug 2026A Genoa2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 84% vs implied 74% · edge +10.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Napoli Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Napoli to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Fiorentina to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Fiorentina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Fiorentina Over 2.5
50%Napoli Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Fiorentina sit at 100% and Napoli sit at 50% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Loading deeper match data…