Football Stats Hub

FC St. Pauli crestFC St. Pauli
v
VfL Wolfsburg crestVfL Wolfsburg

Bundesliga | Sat 16 May, 14:30

FC St. Pauli v VfL Wolfsburg Stats

Data last updated: Tue 09 Jun 2026, 07:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pauli face VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga on Sat 16 May, 14:30. Pauli come in with 1 recent points and 0.6 goals per match, while VfL Wolfsburg have 5 points and 0.8 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

VfL Wolfsburg to Win

  • At 2.35, VfL Wolfsburg Win implies roughly 43%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • VfL Wolfsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for FC St.
  • VfL Wolfsburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the VfL Wolfsburg Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Pauli sit 18 in the table, while VfL Wolfsburg sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for VfL Wolfsburg Win sits against roughly 43% implied by the current price. VfL Wolfsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for FC St.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 43% implied
Strong positive
VfL Wolfsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 5.Visible data support
Positive
VfL Wolfsburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: VfL Wolfsburg Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers VfL Wolfsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for FC St. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

VfL Wolfsburg Win evidence

VfL Wolfsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for FC St.

VfL Wolfsburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the VfL Wolfsburg Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Pauli sit 18 in the table, while VfL Wolfsburg sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

VfL Wolfsburg Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    FC St. Pauli5.8
    Avg corners for
    VfL Wolfsburg6.4
    FC St. Pauli10.8
    Avg total corners
    VfL Wolfsburg11.8
    FC St. Pauli1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    VfL Wolfsburg1.2
    FC St. Pauli9.8
    Avg shots
    VfL Wolfsburg13.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Bundesliga fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    FC St. Pauli0.6
    Avg goals scored
    VfL Wolfsburg0.8
    FC St. Pauli2.4
    Avg goals conceded
    VfL Wolfsburg1
    FC St. Pauli60%
    BTTS rate
    VfL Wolfsburg60%
    FC St. Pauli60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    VfL Wolfsburg40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 64% · edge +6.3 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 60% for FC St. Pauli and 60% for VfL Wolfsburg, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickVfL Wolfsburg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 43% · edge +23.8 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Load more odds for this section
    VfL Wolfsburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    VfL Wolfsburg to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    FC St. Pauli

    LLLDL
    Last 50W 1D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 3D 6L
    09 May 2026A RB Leipzig1-2
    03 May 2026H FSV Mainz 051-2
    25 Apr 2026A 1. FC Heidenheim0-2
    17 Apr 2026H 1. FC Köln1-1
    11 Apr 2026H Bayern München0-5

    VfL Wolfsburg

    LDDWL
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 3D 6L
    09 May 2026H Bayern München0-1
    03 May 2026A SC Freiburg1-1
    25 Apr 2026H Borussia Mönchengladbach0-0
    18 Apr 2026A Union Berlin2-1
    11 Apr 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt1-2
    Market aligned with main pickVfL Wolfsburg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 43% · edge +23.8 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Load more odds for this section
    VfL Wolfsburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0FC St. Pauli wins
    4Draws
    1VfL Wolfsburg wins
    14 Jan 2026VfL Wolfsburg v FC St. Pauli2-1
    08 Mar 2025VfL Wolfsburg v FC St. Pauli1-1
    26 Oct 2024FC St. Pauli v VfL Wolfsburg0-0
    16 Apr 2011VfL Wolfsburg v FC St. Pauli2-2
    21 Nov 2010FC St. Pauli v VfL Wolfsburg1-1
    Market aligned with main pickVfL Wolfsburg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 43% · edge +23.8 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    The head-to-head sample gives context for VfL Wolfsburg to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    FC St. Pauli34
    Played
    VfL Wolfsburg36
    FC St. Pauli0.9
    Avg goals for
    VfL Wolfsburg1.3
    FC St. Pauli1.8
    Avg goals against
    VfL Wolfsburg2
    FC St. Pauli5
    Clean sheets
    VfL Wolfsburg3
    Market aligned with main pickVfL Wolfsburg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 43% · edge +23.8 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Load more odds for this section
    VfL Wolfsburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Season data supports VfL Wolfsburg to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    16VfL Wolfsburg29347819-24
    18FC St. Pauli26346820-31
    Pauli sit in position 18, while VfL Wolfsburg sit in position 16, so table pressure belongs in the VfL Wolfsburg Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%FC St. Pauli Over 2.5
    40%VfL Wolfsburg Over 2.5
    2.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: FC St. Pauli sit at 60% and VfL Wolfsburg sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Football predictions hub

    Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

    More stats pages

    Browse football stats pages

    Open the main stats hub for the latest fixture dashboards.

    Competition and hubs

    Bundesliga hubBundesliga fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    View match centre