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Famalicao crestFamalicao
v
Sporting CP crestSporting CP

Primeira Liga | Sun 13 Sep, 20:30

Famalicao v Sporting CP Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Famalicao face Sporting CP in Primeira Liga on Sun 13 Sep, 20:30. Famalicao come in with 3 recent points and 0.8 goals per match, while Sporting CP have 13 points and 2.8 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 1.8, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 58%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Famalicao and 80% for Sporting CP, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Sporting CP are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.8 goals per match, with Famalicao at 0.8.
  • BTTS rates of 60% for Famalicao and 60% for Sporting CP show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 58% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Famalicao and 80% for Sporting CP, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price58% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Neutral
The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Famalicao and 80%.Visible data support
Positive
Sporting CP are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Famalicao and 80% for Sporting CP, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Famalicao and 80% for Sporting CP, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Sporting CP are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.8 goals per match, with Famalicao at 0.8.

BTTS rates of 60% for Famalicao and 60% for Sporting CP show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Famalicao6.5
Avg corners for
Sporting CP3.75
Famalicao10.5
Avg total corners
Sporting CP6.75
Famalicao2.25
Avg yellow cards
Sporting CP2
Famalicao9
Avg shots
Sporting CP12.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 55% · edge +6.8 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Famalicao0.8
Avg goals scored
Sporting CP2.8
Famalicao1.2
Avg goals conceded
Sporting CP1
Famalicao60%
BTTS rate
Sporting CP60%
Famalicao40%
Over 2.5 goals
Sporting CP80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 56% · edge +2.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Famalicao and 80% for Sporting CP, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 56% · edge +2.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Famalicao Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Sporting CP to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Sporting CP Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Famalicao to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 Goals is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Famalicao

DDLLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 2L
05 Sep 2026A Estrela2-2
30 Aug 2026H GIL Vicente0-0
23 Aug 2026A Santa Clara0-1
16 Aug 2026H Maritimo1-2
07 Aug 2026A Estoril1-1

Sporting CP

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 0L
05 Sep 2026H Nacional2-0
28 Aug 2026A Rio Ave4-0
22 Aug 2026H Alverca3-1
14 Aug 2026H Vitória SC3-2
08 Aug 2026A Estrela2-2
Best odds for this sectionFamalicao Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Load more odds for this section
Sporting CP to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Sporting CP Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Famalicao to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Famalicao wins
0Draws
10Sporting CP wins
15 Feb 2026Sporting CP v Famalicao1-0
13 Sep 2025Famalicao v Sporting CP1-2
15 Mar 2025Sporting CP v Famalicao3-1
26 Oct 2024Famalicao v Sporting CP0-3
16 Apr 2024Famalicao v Sporting CP0-1
27 Aug 2023Sporting CP v Famalicao1-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 56% · edge +2.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Sporting CP to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Famalicao to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Famalicao5
Played
Sporting CP5
Famalicao0.8
Avg goals for
Sporting CP2.8
Famalicao1.2
Avg goals against
Sporting CP1
Famalicao1
Clean sheets
Sporting CP2
Best odds for this sectionFamalicao Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Load more odds for this section
Sporting CP to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Sporting CP Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Famalicao to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
6
Check odds @ 6
Season data supports Famalicao Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Sporting CP1354109
14Famalicao35032-2
Famalicao sit in position 14, while Sporting CP sit in position 3, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Famalicao Over 2.5
80%Sporting CP Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Famalicao sit at 40% and Sporting CP sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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Fixture links

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