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Casa Pia crestCasa Pia
v
FC Porto crestFC Porto

Primeira Liga | Sat 12 Sep, 18:00

Casa Pia v FC Porto Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Casa Pia face FC Porto in Primeira Liga on Sat 12 Sep, 18:00. Porto have conceded just 4 goals in 19 league matches and won all 10 away games this season. Porto have a perfect away record with 10 wins from 10, while Casa Pia have lost their last 6 meetings against the leaders.

BT4Y lean · price warning

FC Porto Win

  • At 1.25, FC Porto Win implies roughly 80%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 70%.
  • Defensive Floor: Average Goals Conceded
  • FC Porto have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 1 for Casa Pia.
  • FC Porto have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the FC Porto Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Casa Pia sit 18 in the table, while FC Porto sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

FC Porto Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 80% while the model sits nearer 70% (-10 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Under 2.5 Goals shows a +15 pts edge at 2.05.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 70% for FC Porto Win sits against roughly 80% implied by the current price. FC Porto have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 1 for Casa Pia. Defensive Floor: Average Goals Conceded

Model chance vs price70% model chance against roughly 80% implied
Negative
FC Porto have the stronger recent points return, taking 15.Visible data support
Positive
FC Porto have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Defensive Floor: Average Goals ConcededArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: FC Porto Win is the preferred angle because defensive Floor: Average Goals Conceded FC Porto have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 1 for Casa Pia. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

FC Porto Win evidence

Defensive Floor: Average Goals Conceded

FC Porto have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 1 for Casa Pia.

FC Porto have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the FC Porto Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Casa Pia sit 18 in the table, while FC Porto sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

FC Porto Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Casa Pia4
    Avg corners for
    FC Porto7
    Casa Pia9.2
    Avg total corners
    FC Porto10.8
    Casa Pia1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    FC Porto0.4
    Casa Pia9.2
    Avg shots
    FC Porto14.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.2 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Primeira Liga hubCasa Pia v FC Porto predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Casa Pia0
    Avg goals scored
    FC Porto2.2
    Casa Pia2.2
    Avg goals conceded
    FC Porto0.2
    Casa Pia0%
    BTTS rate
    FC Porto20%
    Casa Pia20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    FC Porto40%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFC Porto to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 80% · edge -10 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    FC Porto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    FC Porto to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Casa Pia

    DLLLL
    Last 50W 1D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 4L
    06 Sep 2026A Vitória SC0-0
    30 Aug 2026H Moreirense0-1
    24 Aug 2026A GIL Vicente0-2
    17 Aug 2026H Benfica0-7
    08 Aug 2026A Maritimo0-1

    FC Porto

    WWWWW
    Last 55W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 0D 0L
    04 Sep 2026H Moreirense2-1
    29 Aug 2026A Academico Viseu3-0
    23 Aug 2026H Arouca2-0
    15 Aug 2026A Rio Ave2-0
    09 Aug 2026H Alverca2-0
    Market aligned with main pickFC Porto to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 80% · edge -10 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
    1.06
    Check odds @ 1.06
    FC Porto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Casa Pia wins
    1Draws
    7FC Porto wins
    02 Feb 2026Casa Pia v FC Porto2-1
    24 Aug 2025FC Porto v Casa Pia4-0
    12 Apr 2025Casa Pia v FC Porto0-1
    02 Dec 2024FC Porto v Casa Pia2-0
    21 Apr 2024Casa Pia v FC Porto1-2
    09 Dec 2023FC Porto v Casa Pia3-1
    Market aligned with main pickFC Porto to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 80% · edge -10 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for FC Porto to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    Casa Pia5
    Played
    FC Porto5
    Casa Pia0
    Avg goals for
    FC Porto2.2
    Casa Pia2.2
    Avg goals against
    FC Porto0.2
    Casa Pia1
    Clean sheets
    FC Porto4
    Market aligned with main pickFC Porto to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 80% · edge -10 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    FC Porto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Season data supports FC Porto to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1FC Porto15550010
    18Casa Pia15014-11
    Casa Pia sit in position 18, while FC Porto sit in position 1, so table pressure belongs in the FC Porto Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Casa Pia Over 2.5
    40%FC Porto Over 2.5
    2.56H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Casa Pia sit at 20% and FC Porto sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.56 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Casa Pia v FC Porto prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

    Primeira Liga hubPrimeira Liga hubCasa Pia v FC Porto predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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