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Famalicao crestFamalicao
v
Maritimo crestMaritimo

Primeira Liga | Sun 16 Aug, 20:30

Famalicao v Maritimo Stats

Data last updated: Thu 17 Sep 2026, 10:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Famalicao face Maritimo in Primeira Liga on Sun 16 Aug, 20:30. Famalicao’s strong home record includes nine wins from 11 matches against teams outside the top seven last season, combined with a 13-match unbeaten league run.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Famalicao to win

  • At 3/4, Famalicao to win implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 49%.
  • Famalicao vs Maritimo: Strong home record gives hosts the early edge.
  • Maritimo have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Famalicao.
  • Maritimo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Famalicao to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Famalicao sit 13 in the table, while Maritimo sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Famalicao to win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 57% while the model sits nearer 49% (-8.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.95.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 49% for Famalicao to win sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. Maritimo have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Famalicao. Famalicao vs Maritimo: Strong home record gives hosts the early edge.

Model chance vs price49% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Negative
Maritimo have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Maritimo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Famalicao vs Maritimo: Strong home record gives hosts the.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Famalicao Win is the preferred angle because famalicao vs Maritimo: Strong home record gives hosts the early edge. Maritimo have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Famalicao. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Famalicao to win evidence

Famalicao vs Maritimo: Strong home record gives hosts the early edge.

Maritimo have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Famalicao.

Maritimo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Famalicao Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Famalicao sit 13 in the table, while Maritimo sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Famalicao to win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Famalicao6
    Avg corners for
    Maritimo2
    Famalicao13
    Avg total corners
    Maritimo8
    Famalicao2
    Avg yellow cards
    Maritimo2
    Famalicao6
    Avg shots
    Maritimo16
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 50% · edge +5.8 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Famalicao1
    Avg goals scored
    Maritimo1
    Famalicao1
    Avg goals conceded
    Maritimo0
    Famalicao100%
    BTTS rate
    Maritimo0%
    Famalicao0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Maritimo0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFamalicao to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 57% · edge -8.2 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Famalicao Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Famalicao to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Famalicao

    D
    Last 50W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 0L
    07 Aug 2026A Estoril1-1

    Maritimo

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    08 Aug 2026H Casa Pia1-0
    Market aligned with main pickFamalicao to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 57% · edge -8.2 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Famalicao Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Famalicao wins
    4Draws
    0Maritimo wins
    22 Apr 2023Famalicao v Maritimo3-2
    06 Nov 2022Maritimo v Famalicao0-0
    20 Feb 2022Maritimo v Famalicao0-1
    18 Sep 2021Famalicao v Maritimo0-0
    21 Mar 2021Maritimo v Famalicao0-4
    07 Nov 2020Famalicao v Maritimo2-1
    Market aligned with main pickFamalicao to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 57% · edge -8.2 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Famalicao to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    Famalicao6
    Played
    Maritimo6
    Famalicao0.8
    Avg goals for
    Maritimo1.2
    Famalicao1.2
    Avg goals against
    Maritimo1.8
    Famalicao1
    Clean sheets
    Maritimo1
    Market aligned with main pickFamalicao to WinBetUK guide price · Model 49% vs implied 57% · edge -8.2 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Famalicao Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Season data supports Famalicao to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    10Maritimo76213-4
    13Famalicao46042-2
    Famalicao sit in position 13, while Maritimo sit in position 10, so table pressure belongs in the Famalicao to win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Famalicao Over 2.5
    0%Maritimo Over 2.5
    2.63H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Famalicao sit at 0% and Maritimo sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2.63 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Famalicao v Maritimo prediction

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    Betting context

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