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Famalicao crestFamalicao
v
Maritimo crestMaritimo

Primeira Liga | Sun 16 Aug, 20:30

Famalicao v Maritimo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Famalicao and Maritimo meet in a Primeira Liga clash where both sides have shown cautious attacking output early in the season. Famalicao has scored and conceded just one goal in their opening match, while Maritimo has kept a clean sheet but also scored once. Maritimo’s higher league standing contrasts with Famalicao’s struggle to find points, suggesting a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities. Both teams' recent matches have featured low goal totals, setting the stage for a tight, defensively disciplined encounter under the lights.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have recorded zero Over 2.5 Goals matches this season so far.
  • Famalicao has a 100% BTTS rate but only one goal scored and conceded in their last game.
  • Maritimo averages 16 shots per game but has yet to concede this season.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.63 over eight matches, indicating moderate scoring historically.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting both teams' early-season defensive solidity and low scoring rates. Famalicao’s cautious approach and Maritimo’s clean sheet record support a low-scoring game. Despite Maritimo’s higher shot volume, finishing quality and defensive discipline suggest limited goal conversion. The at 1.75 offer positive value given the implied chance of 57.1%. No data limitations reduce , making this a solid low-scoring selection with standard stake guidance.

Model Chance66%
Strong positive
Implied Chance57.1%
Positive
Value Edge8.9%
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate0% both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.63 goals
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns with the tactical caution both teams have displayed early in the season. Maritimo’s defensive resilience and Famalicao’s limited goal output suggest a match unlikely to exceed two goals. The data supports a tight game where scoring chances may be scarce, making the low total a sensible choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals rationale

“Maritimo’s defensive discipline combined with Famalicao’s modest attacking threat points to a low-scoring fixture. The statistical profile and early season form both favor Under 2.5 Goals as the most logical outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have recorded zero Over 2.5 Goals matches this season so far.

Famalicao has a 100% BTTS rate but only one goal scored and conceded in their last game.

Maritimo averages 16 shots per game but has yet to concede this season.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.63 over eight matches, indicating moderate scoring historically.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.63, indicating moderate scoring historically.
  • However, recent trends in the current season show zero Over 2.5 Goals matches for both teams, suggesting a slower tempo and more defensive caution.
  • This supports the likelihood of a low-scoring encounter with limited goal chances.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Famalicao6
Avg corners for
Maritimo2
Famalicao13
Avg total corners
Maritimo8
Famalicao2
Avg yellow cards
Maritimo2
Famalicao6
Avg shots
Maritimo16
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 52% · edge +3.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Famalicao averages six corners and two yellow cards per game, indicating moderate attacking pressure and a disciplined defensive approach. Maritimo’s lower corner count but higher shot volume (16 shots per game) suggests they rely on fewer but more direct attacks. Both teams maintain similar card averages, reflecting balanced aggression without excessive fouling.

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Useful next reads

Primeira Liga fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Famalicao1
Avg goals scored
Maritimo1
Famalicao1
Avg goals conceded
Maritimo0
Famalicao100%
BTTS rate
Maritimo0%
Famalicao0%
Over 2.5 goals
Maritimo0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 57% · edge +8.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Goal and BTTS trends show Famalicao has scored and conceded once with 100% BTTS in their last match, while Maritimo has kept a clean sheet but scored once. Both teams have zero Over 2.5 Goals matches so far, indicating a defensive approach. The head-to-head average of 2.63 goals suggests moderate scoring historically but recent form points to fewer goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Maritimo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Maritimo to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Famalicao Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Famalicao to WinBetUK guide price · model 30%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.75, reflecting a positive value opportunity given the model’s 66% chance. The imply a 57.1% chance, underestimating the likelihood of a low-scoring game based on early season defensive trends and shot conversion rates. This pricing suggests a solid betting angle without major price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Famalicao

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
07 Aug 2026A Estoril1-1

Maritimo

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
08 Aug 2026H Casa Pia1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Maritimo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Maritimo to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Famalicao Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Famalicao to WinBetUK guide price · model 30%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form data shows both teams have yet to feature Over 2.5 Goals in their opening matches, with Famalicao scoring and conceding once and Maritimo keeping a clean sheet. Famalicao’s 100% BTTS rate contrasts with Maritimo’s zero, suggesting a slight difference in defensive solidity but overall low scoring momentum for both sides.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Famalicao wins
4Draws
0Maritimo wins
22 Apr 2023Famalicao v Maritimo3-2
06 Nov 2022Maritimo v Famalicao0-0
20 Feb 2022Maritimo v Famalicao0-1
18 Sep 2021Famalicao v Maritimo0-0
21 Mar 2021Maritimo v Famalicao0-4
07 Nov 2020Famalicao v Maritimo2-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Maritimo to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Famalicao to WinBetUK guide price · model 30%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head sample of eight matches shows an average of 2.63 goals per game, a moderate scoring rate. While this indicates some goal threat historically, recent form and tactical setups suggest the teams may produce fewer goals this time. The H2H data provides useful background but is less decisive than current season defensive trends.
Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Famalicao1
Played
Maritimo1
Famalicao1
Avg goals for
Maritimo1
Famalicao1
Avg goals against
Maritimo0
Famalicao0
Clean sheets
Maritimo1
Best odds for this sectionMaritimo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Load more odds for this section
Maritimo to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Famalicao Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Famalicao to WinBetUK guide price · model 30%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season-long statistics reinforce a low-scoring expectation, with both teams averaging fewer than seven shots per game for Famalicao and sixteen for Maritimo, but limited goals scored and conceded. Defensive records and shot conversion rates support the Under 2.5 Goals market, reflecting cautious attacking patterns and solid defensive organization.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Maritimo311001
10Famalicao110100
Maritimo’s higher league position (4th) compared to Famalicao (14th) reflects better overall form but does not necessarily translate into a high-scoring game. The standings suggest Maritimo may control possession but Famalicao’s defensive resilience and home advantage could limit goal opportunities, maintaining a low-scoring balance.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Famalicao Over 2.5
0%Maritimo Over 2.5
2.63H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.63, indicating moderate scoring historically. However, recent trends in the current season show zero Over 2.5 Goals matches for both teams, suggesting a slower tempo and more defensive caution. This supports the likelihood of a low-scoring encounter with limited goal chances.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Famalicao v Maritimo prediction

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