Football Stats Hub

Estoril crestEstoril
v
Arouca crestArouca

Primeira Liga | Mon 07 Sep, 20:15

Estoril v Arouca Stats

Data last updated: Sun 06 Sep 2026, 08:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Estoril visit Arouca in a Primeira Liga clash where attacking intent and defensive frailties shape expectations. Arouca, struggling defensively with 55 goals conceded, come off a vital 1-0 home win but remain under pressure near the relegation zone. Estoril, positioned higher and boasting creative talents like João Carvalho and Jordan Holsgrove, aim to exploit wide channels and transitional moments. Recent head-to-heads have been high-scoring affairs, reflecting both teams' openness and Arouca's vulnerability to through balls and wide attacks. This match promises a lively contest with Estoril's superior attacking quality likely to be decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Estoril Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Arouca have conceded 55 goals in 27 matches, the second-worst defensive record in the league.
  • Estoril average 12.1 shots per game and have scored 48 goals this season.
  • Last six meetings between these teams averaged 4 goals per game, highlighting attacking openness.
  • Both teams have poor clean sheet records: Arouca with 6 and Estoril with 5 this season.
  • Estoril’s João Carvalho and Jordan Holsgrove combine for 17 assists, underpinning their creative edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Estoril Win & Over 2.5 Goals as a value pick with a 13.4% chance against a 10% implied market chance, reflecting Estoril's attacking superiority and Arouca's defensive fragility. Estoril's higher shot volume and creative players, combined with Arouca's porous defense and recent high-scoring matches, underpin the expectation of multiple goals and a visitor win. The data quality is solid, supporting in this selection without major caveats.

Model Chance13.4%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance10%
Neutral
Value Edge3.4%
Positive
Estoril Shots per Game12.1
Strong positive
Arouca Goals Conceded55 in 27 matches
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Estoril’s creative midfielders and clinical forwards should exploit Arouca’s defensive vulnerabilities, especially down the wide channels. The visitors’ superior attacking volume and historical high-scoring clashes between these teams make an Estoril win with over 2.5 goals a tactically and statistically sound prediction.

Main risk

The biggest risk for Arouca is that the game opens too early and turns into a race they cannot manage.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and attacking quality

“Estoril’s ability to combine quick wide attacks with precise through balls targets Arouca’s defensive weaknesses, making a high-scoring Estoril victory the most probable outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Estoril Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Arouca have conceded 55 goals in 27 matches, the second-worst defensive record in the league.

Estoril average 12.1 shots per game and have scored 48 goals this season.

Last six meetings between these teams averaged 4 goals per game, highlighting attacking openness.

Both teams have poor clean sheet records: Arouca with 6 and Estoril with 5 this season.

What To Watch In The Data

Estoril Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last ten meetings between these teams have averaged 3.8 goals per game, with recent matches frequently exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • This trend, combined with both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities and attacking styles, suggests a continuation of high-scoring encounters in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Estoril0.5
Avg goals scored
Arouca1.75
Estoril1.75
Avg goals conceded
Arouca0.75
Estoril50%
BTTS rate
Arouca25%
Estoril25%
Over 2.5 goals
Arouca50%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 51% · edge +3.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Both teams have struggled to keep clean sheets this season, with Arouca conceding 55 goals and Estoril only managing 5 clean sheets. Their recent meetings have been goal-rich, including scorelines like 4-3 and 4-1, supporting a high likelihood of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickEstoril Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 57% · edge -12.1 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Estoril to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
The 9/1 price on Estoril Win & Over 2.5 Goals offers a slight with a of 13.4%. The market underestimates Estoril’s attacking potential and Arouca’s defensive lapses, making this a price-sensitive but justified selection without major warnings.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Estoril4.25
Avg corners for
Arouca2.75
Estoril10.5
Avg total corners
Arouca8.5
Estoril1.75
Avg yellow cards
Arouca2.5
Estoril11.25
Avg shots
Arouca10
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 55% · edge +3.9 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Estoril average 4.25 corners and 11.25 shots per game, reflecting sustained pressure and attacking intent. Arouca’s higher card count (2.5 yellows per game) indicates a physical approach that may lead to set-piece opportunities, further increasing goal chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Estoril

LLLD
Last 50W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 3L
31 Aug 2026A Benfica1-2
22 Aug 2026H Rio Ave0-2
16 Aug 2026A Nacional0-2
07 Aug 2026H Famalicao1-1

Arouca

WLWW
Last 53W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 1L
29 Aug 2026H Maritimo2-1
23 Aug 2026A FC Porto0-2
16 Aug 2026H Moreirense4-0
08 Aug 2026A Vitória SC1-0
Market aligned with main pickEstoril Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 57% · edge -12.1 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Estoril to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Arouca’s recent form includes a crucial 1-0 win that halted a losing streak, but their defensive issues persist. Estoril’s form shows a lower recent points tally but sustained attacking output, with a 25% over 2.5 goals rate and 50% BTTS rate in recent matches, aligning with the prediction of an open, goal-filled game.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Estoril wins
1Draws
5Arouca wins
06 Apr 2026Arouca v Estoril3-2
07 Nov 2025Estoril v Arouca4-3
16 Mar 2025Arouca v Estoril1-1
26 Oct 2024Estoril v Arouca4-1
20 Jan 2024Estoril v Arouca1-2
13 Aug 2023Arouca v Estoril4-3
Market aligned with main pickEstoril to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 43% · edge -15.6 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The head-to-head record shows a pattern of open, high-scoring games, with recent results including 4-3 and 4-1 scorelines. This history supports the expectation of multiple goals and an attacking game, although the sample size is moderate and current form nuances remain important.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Estoril4
Played
Arouca4
Estoril0.5
Avg goals for
Arouca1.8
Estoril1.8
Avg goals against
Arouca0.8
Estoril0
Clean sheets
Arouca2
Market aligned with main pickEstoril Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 57% · edge -12.1 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Estoril to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Estoril’s season stats highlight a strong offensive output with 48 goals scored and an average of 12.1 shots per game, contrasting with Arouca’s defensive struggles, conceding 55 goals. Both teams’ poor clean sheet records reinforce the expectation of multiple goals and scoring at both ends.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Arouca943014
17Estoril14013-5
Despite Estoril sitting 17th and Arouca 4th in recent form points, the league standings do not fully reflect the attacking and defensive dynamics at play. Arouca’s survival pressure contrasts with Estoril’s ambition to climb, adding tactical urgency to the match but not altering the goal-scoring outlook.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Estoril Over 2.5
50%Arouca Over 2.5
3.8H2H avg goals
The last ten meetings between these teams have averaged 3.8 goals per game, with recent matches frequently exceeding 2.5 goals. This trend, combined with both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities and attacking styles, suggests a continuation of high-scoring encounters in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Estoril v Arouca prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Santa Clara v Rio AvePrimeira Liga · Sun 06 Sep 15:30Vitória SC v Casa PiaPrimeira Liga · Sun 06 Sep 18:00GIL Vicente v Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga · Sun 06 Sep 20:30

Competition and hubs

Primeira Liga hubmore Primeira Liga analysisfull betting preview for Estoril v Aroucacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre