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Eldense crestEldense
v
Cadiz crestCadiz

Segunda División | Sat 22 Aug, 20:30

Eldense v Cadiz Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cadiz visits Eldense in a Segunda División clash where both teams seek early season momentum. Eldense, newly promoted, have struggled defensively, conceding three goals without scoring, while Cadiz have shown more solidity, earning a point with a clean sheet. Cadiz's experience and tactical discipline could prove decisive against Eldense's high-risk approach, who have seen all their matches go over 2.5 goals. The fixture offers a tactical contrast between Eldense's open style and Cadiz's more measured game, setting up an intriguing contest under pressure to secure points early in the campaign.

BT4Y best bet

Cadiz to Win

  • Cadiz holds a clear model edge with a 60.3% win probability versus a 29.4% implied chance at 3.4 .
  • Eldense have conceded 3 goals in their opening matches without scoring, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Cadiz averages 17 shots per game with 3 on target, indicating offensive threat and control.
  • Eldense's matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, while Cadiz's have not, suggesting contrasting styles and potential for Cadiz to control tempo.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Cadiz to win with a strong 60.3% chance, reflecting their superior shot volume, defensive stability, and recent form compared to Eldense's defensive frailties. Cadiz's ability to limit opponents' scoring chances and maintain possession underpins this . Although Eldense's matches have been high scoring, Cadiz's more balanced approach and higher shot creation rate support their chances. No price warning is needed as the offer positive value relative to the model's assessment. The data quality is solid with no limitations, enhancing in this pick.

Model Win Probability60.3%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance29.4%
Strong positive
Eldense Defensive Record3 goals conceded, 0 scored
Negative
Cadiz Offensive Output17 shots per game, 3 on target
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cadiz's tactical discipline and higher shot volume make them the likely winners against a defensively vulnerable Eldense side. Their ability to control the game and limit Eldense's scoring chances provides a solid foundation for victory, supported by recent form and shot statistics.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Cadiz's superior shot creation and defensive stability give them a clear edge in this matchup, especially against Eldense's porous defense. Their balanced approach should see them capitalize on chances and secure the win.”

Key Data Signals

Cadiz to Win evidence

Cadiz holds a clear model edge with a 60.3% win probability versus a 29.4% implied chance at 3.4 .

Eldense have conceded 3 goals in their opening matches without scoring, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Cadiz averages 17 shots per game with 3 on target, indicating offensive threat and control.

Eldense's matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, while Cadiz's have not, suggesting contrasting styles and potential for Cadiz to control tempo.

What To Watch In The Data

Cadiz to Win notes

  • The last three meetings between these teams averaged 3 goals per game, indicating a historically open fixture.
  • Eldense's 100% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Cadiz's 0%, suggesting a clash of styles that could produce goals but also opportunities for Cadiz to control the tempo and limit scoring.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Eldense0
Avg goals scored
Cadiz0
Eldense3
Avg goals conceded
Cadiz0
Eldense0%
BTTS rate
Cadiz0%
Eldense100%
Over 2.5 goals
Cadiz0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 55% · edge +13.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 49%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 32%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Eldense's matches have consistently gone over 2.5 goals, reflecting their open and vulnerable defense, while Cadiz's games have been tighter with no overs so far. This contrast suggests a tactical battle where Cadiz may control tempo to limit goals, but Eldense's style keeps goal opportunities alive.
Season team stats

Segunda División

Eldense1
Played
Cadiz1
Eldense0
Avg goals for
Cadiz0
Eldense3
Avg goals against
Cadiz0
Eldense0
Clean sheets
Cadiz1
Market aligned with main pickCadiz to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Cadiz Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Cadiz's season statistics reveal a balanced attack with 17 shots per game and solid defense allowing no goals yet, while Eldense's numbers highlight defensive struggles and high-scoring matches. This season-long profile favors Cadiz's ability to manage the game and capitalize on chances.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Eldense

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
17 Aug 2026A Almeria0-3

Cadiz

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
15 Aug 2026H Celta de Vigo II0-0
Market aligned with main pickCadiz to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Cadiz Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Cadiz's recent form shows a more stable defensive performance with a clean sheet and a point earned, contrasting Eldense's three goals conceded and no points. This defensive solidity underpins Cadiz's and ability to control matches, supporting their chances to secure a win in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCadiz to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
Cadiz Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 32%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The Cadiz to Win market offers strong value with at 3.4 implying a 29.4% chance, well below the model's 60.3% win probability. This discrepancy highlights a price-sensitive opportunity, as Cadiz's form and shot metrics justify a higher likelihood of victory than the market suggests.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Eldense8
Avg corners for
Cadiz6
Eldense15
Avg total corners
Cadiz8
Eldense3
Avg yellow cards
Cadiz4
Eldense11
Avg shots
Cadiz17
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 48% · edge +11.7 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Cadiz averages fewer corners than Eldense but compensates with higher shot volume and accuracy, indicating more efficient attacking play. Both teams have moderate card averages, with Cadiz's defensive discipline likely to keep fouls and bookings controlled, influencing game flow and set-piece opportunities.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Eldense wins
0Draws
1Cadiz wins
18 Jan 2025Eldense v Cadiz1-4
04 Dec 2024Cadiz v Eldense0-1
28 Sep 2024Cadiz v Eldense1-2
Market aligned with main pickCadiz to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 32%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The head-to-head sample of three matches shows an average of 3 goals per game, supporting the potential for an open contest. However, Cadiz's recent defensive improvements and Eldense's early-season struggles suggest the historical trend may be less predictive than current form and tactical setups.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Cadiz110100
21Eldense01001-3
Cadiz sits comfortably in 11th place with 1 point, while Eldense is near the bottom at 21st with no points. Although early in the season, Cadiz's mid-table position reflects greater stability and experience, which may influence the match outcome more than the standings alone.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Eldense Over 2.5
0%Cadiz Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The last three meetings between these teams averaged 3 goals per game, indicating a historically open fixture. Eldense's 100% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Cadiz's 0%, suggesting a clash of styles that could produce goals but also opportunities for Cadiz to control the tempo and limit scoring.

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Fixture links

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