AD Ceuta FC

Las Palmas

Segunda División | Sat 22 Aug, 18:00

AD Ceuta FC v Las Palmas Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Segunda División clash features AD Ceuta FC hosting Las Palmas, with both sides showing strong attacking intent early in the season. AD Ceuta FC have conceded five goals in their opening match, while Las Palmas have started with a solid win and a tight defense, conceding just once. Both teams have recorded 100% Over 2.5 Goals rates so far, indicating an open game likely to produce multiple goals. Tactical approaches suggest Las Palmas will press high and create chances through key attackers, while Ceuta's defensive vulnerabilities may be exploited in transition.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

Both teams have 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season so far
AD Ceuta FC conceded 5 goals in their opening match, showing defensive frailty
Las Palmas have a strong attacking record with 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded
Head-to-head average goals stand at 3 across two recent meetings
Las Palmas average 12 shots per game, indicating sustained offensive pressure

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 78% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, well above the implied market chance of 48.8%, reflecting clear value at of 2.05. Both teams have demonstrated attacking potency and defensive vulnerabilities, with Ceuta conceding heavily and Las Palmas maintaining high shot volumes. The 100% Over 2.5 rate for both sides this season and a recent head-to-head average of 3 goals support an expectation of multiple goals. This combination of data and tactical context underpins the strong in Over 2.5 Goals for this fixture.

Model Probability78% chance of Over 2.5 Goals

Strong positive

Current Market Implied Chance48.8%

Strong positive

Recent Team Over 2.5 Rates100% for both teams

Strong positive

Defensive VulnerabilityCeuta conceded 5 goals in last match

Positive

Shot VolumeLas Palmas average 12 shots per game

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game with both teams pushing forward, especially Las Palmas who have shown strong offensive output. Ceuta's defensive struggles suggest multiple goals are likely, making Over 2.5 Goals a fitting selection based on tactical intent and recent scoring data.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“Las Palmas' high shot volume combined with Ceuta's defensive lapses sets the stage for a goal-rich encounter. Both sides' early season form points towards an open game where Over 2.5 Goals is a compelling choice.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season so far

AD Ceuta FC conceded 5 goals in their opening match, showing defensive frailty

Las Palmas have a strong attacking record with 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3 across two recent meetings

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored was 3 per match, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend.
Both teams have shown consistent goal-scoring and conceding patterns in their recent five matches, indicating a fast tempo and open play conducive to multiple goals in this fixture.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AD Ceuta FC2

Avg corners for

Las Palmas3

AD Ceuta FC4

Avg total corners

Las Palmas9

AD Ceuta FC1

Avg yellow cards

Las Palmas1

AD Ceuta FC5

Avg shots

Las Palmas12

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 55% · edge -6.8 pts

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Las Palmas average 12 shots per game with 4 on target, indicating sustained offensive pressure and territory control. Ceuta's lower shot count and defensive frailty suggest they may concede set-piece opportunities and corners. Both teams average a similar number of yellow cards, implying a balanced but competitive match with fouls likely in midfield battles.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AD Ceuta FC1

Avg goals scored

Las Palmas2

AD Ceuta FC5

Avg goals conceded

Las Palmas1

AD Ceuta FC100%

BTTS rate

Las Palmas100%

AD Ceuta FC100%

Over 2.5 goals

Las Palmas100%

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

Both teams have started the season with 100% Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS rates, reflecting open play and defensive vulnerabilities. Ceuta's 5 goals conceded and Las Palmas' attacking efficiency combine to create a high-scoring environment. The head-to-head average of 3 goals per match further reinforces the expectation of goals from both sides.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

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Las Palmas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Las Palmas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

AD Ceuta FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 48%

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

AD Ceuta FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.05 with a of 78%, indicating strong value. The implied chance of 48.8% is significantly lower than the model's probability, suggesting the market underestimates the likelihood of multiple goals. This price-value gap supports a confident stance on Over 2.5 Goals without requiring caution on sensitivity.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AD Ceuta FC

Last 50W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 1L

15 Aug 2026A FC Andorra1-5

Las Palmas

Last 51W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 0L

16 Aug 2026H Albacete2-1

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 84% vs implied 74% · edge +10.5 pts

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

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Las Palmas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Las Palmas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

AD Ceuta FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

AD Ceuta FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Both teams have recorded 100% Over 2.5 Goals in their recent matches, with Ceuta conceding 5 goals and Las Palmas scoring 2 while conceding only 1. This recent form data highlights a trend towards open games with multiple goals, supporting the selection of Over 2.5 Goals for this fixture.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0AD Ceuta FC wins

1Draws

1Las Palmas wins

08 Mar 2026Las Palmas v AD Ceuta FC4-0

14 Dec 2025AD Ceuta FC v Las Palmas1-1

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Las Palmas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

AD Ceuta FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

The two recent meetings between these teams have averaged 3 goals per game, indicating a history of open contests with multiple goals. While the sample size is limited, this trend aligns with current attacking and defensive profiles, providing useful context for the Over 2.5 Goals selection.

Season team stats

Segunda División

AD Ceuta FC1

Played

Las Palmas1

AD Ceuta FC1

Avg goals for

Las Palmas2

AD Ceuta FC5

Avg goals against

Las Palmas1

AD Ceuta FC0

Clean sheets

Las Palmas0

Best odds for this sectionLas Palmas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Load more odds for this section

Las Palmas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

AD Ceuta FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

AD Ceuta FC to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Season-long data shows Ceuta struggling defensively with a high goals-against tally early on, while Las Palmas maintain a balanced but effective attack and defense. Both teams' offensive numbers align with a high probability of goals, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals market as a reflection of their season profiles.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
6	Las Palmas	3	1	1	0	0	1
22	AD Ceuta FC	0	1	0	0	1	-4

Las Palmas sit comfortably in 6th place with 3 points, indicating positive momentum and . Ceuta are bottom with no points, reflecting early struggles that may lead to defensive lapses. The standings suggest Las Palmas will push for goals to maintain their position, while Ceuta may be forced into riskier play to improve their situation, increasing goal chances.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%AD Ceuta FC Over 2.5

100%Las Palmas Over 2.5

3H2H avg goals

In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored was 3 per match, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend. Both teams have shown consistent goal-scoring and conceding patterns in their recent five matches, indicating a fast tempo and open play conducive to multiple goals in this fixture.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

AD Ceuta FC v Las Palmas Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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AD Ceuta FC

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AD Ceuta FC v Las Palmas Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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AD Ceuta FC

Las Palmas

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