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Dundalk crestDundalk
v
Waterford crestWaterford

Premier Division | Fri 26 Jun, 19:45

Dundalk v Waterford Stats

Data last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026, 05:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Dundalk face Waterford in Premier Division on Fri 26 Jun, 19:45. Dundalk host Waterford at Oriel Park on Friday, 26 June 2026, in a Premier Division clash shaped by home strength, away struggles and recent head-to-head drama.

BT4Y best bet

To 15 March 2024, Waterford have three wins, Dundalk have one, and there have been two draws

  • At 17/10, Dundalk Win implies roughly 37%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 69%.
  • However, their defense has conceded twenty-nine times this season.
  • Dundalk have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Waterford.
  • Dundalk have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Dundalk Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Dundalk sit 4 in the table, while Waterford sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 69% for Dundalk Win sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price. Dundalk have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Waterford. However, their defense has conceded twenty-nine times this season.

Model chance vs price69% model chance against roughly 37% implied
Strong positive
Dundalk have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points.Visible data support
Positive
Dundalk have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
However, their defense has conceded twenty-nine times this season.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Dundalk Win is the preferred angle because however, their defense has conceded twenty-nine times this season. Dundalk have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Waterford. Dundalk fell behind to Cian Byrne’s early goal after five minutes, but responded through Danny Mullen in the 22nd minute and Eoin Kenny in the 76th.

Main risk

Dundalk fell behind to Cian Byrne’s early goal after five minutes, but responded through Danny Mullen in the 22nd minute and Eoin Kenny in the 76th.

Key Data Signals

Dundalk Win evidence

However, their defense has conceded twenty-nine times this season.

Dundalk have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 7 for Waterford.

Dundalk have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Dundalk Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Dundalk sit 4 in the table, while Waterford sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Dundalk Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Dundalk6
    Avg corners for
    Waterford2
    Dundalk11
    Avg total corners
    Waterford5
    Dundalk2
    Avg yellow cards
    Waterford3
    Dundalk14
    Avg shots
    Waterford7
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    Dundalk v Waterford predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Dundalk1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Waterford2
    Dundalk0.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Waterford1.6
    Dundalk60%
    BTTS rate
    Waterford60%
    Dundalk40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Waterford80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 62% · edge +11.6 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 83%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDundalk to WinBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 68% · edge +1.1 pts
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Dundalk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Dundalk to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Dundalk

    WWWDW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 2D 3L
    19 Jun 2026A Bohemians2-1
    12 Jun 2026A Galway United1-0
    29 May 2026H Derry City2-1
    22 May 2026A Drogheda United1-1
    15 May 2026H Shamrock Rovers1-0

    Waterford

    LWDLW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 4D 4L
    19 Jun 2026H Shamrock Rovers0-2
    12 Jun 2026H Sligo Rovers4-0
    29 May 2026A Drogheda United3-3
    22 May 2026A Shelbourne1-2
    18 May 2026H Drogheda United2-1
    Market aligned with main pickDundalk to WinBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 68% · edge +1.1 pts
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Dundalk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Dundalk wins
    3Draws
    5Waterford wins
    04 May 2026Waterford v Dundalk3-3
    13 Mar 2026Dundalk v Waterford5-0
    13 Sep 2024Waterford v Dundalk2-1
    28 Jun 2024Dundalk v Waterford0-2
    10 May 2024Waterford v Dundalk4-1
    15 Mar 2024Dundalk v Waterford0-0
    Market aligned with main pickDundalk to WinBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 68% · edge +1.1 pts
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Dundalk to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier Division

    Dundalk24
    Played
    Waterford24
    Dundalk1.6
    Avg goals for
    Waterford1.4
    Dundalk1.5
    Avg goals against
    Waterford2
    Dundalk5
    Clean sheets
    Waterford2
    Market aligned with main pickDundalk to WinBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 68% · edge +1.1 pts
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Load more odds for this section
    Dundalk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Season data supports Dundalk to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Dundalk35249872
    9Waterford21244911-14
    Dundalk sit in position 4, while Waterford sit in position 9, so table pressure belongs in the Dundalk Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Dundalk Over 2.5
    80%Waterford Over 2.5
    3.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Dundalk sit at 40% and Waterford sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Dundalk v Waterford prediction

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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