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Desenzano Calvina crestDesenzano Calvina
v
Juventus U23 crestJuventus U23

Serie C - Girone A | Sat 26 Sep, 16:30

Desenzano Calvina v Juventus U23 Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Desenzano Calvina hosts Juventus U23 in a Serie C - Girone A clash where both sides have struggled for consistent form. Desenzano Calvina, positioned 14th, have shown defensive resilience conceding just one goal per game recently, while Juventus U23, 16th, have leaked 2.6 goals on average. Juventus U23's attack is more potent, averaging 1.2 goals per match compared to Desenzano Calvina's 0.6, but their defensive frailties have cost them. This fixture presents a tactical battle between Desenzano Calvina's solidity and Juventus U23's attacking ambition, with both teams eager to improve their league standing.

BT4Y best bet

Desenzano Calvina to Win

  • Desenzano Calvina has conceded only 1 goal per game recently, showing defensive stability.
  • Juventus U23 averages 2.6 goals conceded per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Desenzano Calvina's recent form yields 5 points, outperforming Juventus U23's 2 points.
  • Juventus U23 scores more frequently (1.2 goals per game) but struggles defensively.
  • Over 2.5 goals occur in 40% of Desenzano Calvina's matches, 60% for Juventus U23, suggesting moderate scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Desenzano Calvina to win with a 59.1% chance, reflecting their stronger defensive record and slightly better recent form. Despite Juventus U23's higher scoring rate, their defensive weaknesses and lower points tally reduce their winning probability. The at 2.4 offer positive value against the implied 41.7% chance, making Desenzano Calvina a sensible pick. The data quality is solid, with no significant limitations affecting the analysis.

Defensive SolidityDesenzano Calvina concedes 1 goal per game
Strong positive
Recent FormDesenzano Calvina earned 5 points recently vs Juventus U23's 2
Positive
Scoring RateJuventus U23 scores 1.2 goals per game vs 0.6 for Desenzano Calvina
Neutral
Defensive WeaknessJuventus U23 concedes 2.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Value Edge17.4% positive value at 2.4 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Desenzano Calvina's recent defensive improvements and better point accumulation give them a tactical edge over Juventus U23, whose defensive frailties undermine their higher scoring rate. This balance favors a home win as Desenzano Calvina can capitalize on Juventus U23's vulnerabilities while managing the game effectively.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity versus attacking risk

“Desenzano Calvina's defensive resilience combined with Juventus U23's leaky backline creates a compelling case for a home victory despite Juventus U23's attacking threat.”

Key Data Signals

Desenzano Calvina to Win evidence

Desenzano Calvina has conceded only 1 goal per game recently, showing defensive stability.

Juventus U23 averages 2.6 goals conceded per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Desenzano Calvina's recent form yields 5 points, outperforming Juventus U23's 2 points.

Juventus U23 scores more frequently (1.2 goals per game) but struggles defensively.

What To Watch In The Data

Desenzano Calvina to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Juventus U23's games have featured a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open play and defensive lapses.
  • Desenzano Calvina's matches have a 40% over 2.5 rate, reflecting more cautious tactics.
  • This trend suggests a moderate tempo with scoring chances mainly from Juventus U23's attacking intent and defensive gaps.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Desenzano Calvina0.6
Avg goals scored
Juventus U231.2
Desenzano Calvina1
Avg goals conceded
Juventus U232.6
Desenzano Calvina40%
BTTS rate
Juventus U2340%
Desenzano Calvina40%
Over 2.5 goals
Juventus U2360%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 59% · edge -0.5 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Goal trends show Juventus U23 averaging 1.2 goals per game but conceding 2.6, while Desenzano Calvina scores less but concedes fewer goals. Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating moderate likelihood of both scoring. Over 2.5 goals occur more frequently in Juventus U23 matches (60%) than Desenzano Calvina's (40%), suggesting a game with some scoring but not necessarily high-scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Desenzano Calvina

DLWLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 2L
21 Sep 2026A Treviso0-0
17 Sep 2026H Lecco1-3
13 Sep 2026A Arzignano Valchiampo2-1
06 Sep 2026A Union Brescia0-1
31 Aug 2026H Trento0-0

Juventus U23

LLLDD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 3L
20 Sep 2026H Albinoleffe3-5
17 Sep 2026A Cittadella0-2
13 Sep 2026A Ospitaletto0-3
06 Sep 2026H Pergolettese0-0
30 Aug 2026A Athletic Carpi3-3
Market aligned with main pickDesenzano Calvina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Desenzano Calvina has accumulated 5 points recently, showing signs of stabilizing their performances, while Juventus U23 has only 2 points, reflecting ongoing struggles. This recent form disparity supports Desenzano Calvina's chances, as they appear more capable of securing positive results and managing game tempo effectively.

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League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
14Desenzano Calvina66132-2
16Juventus U2356123-6
Both teams sit near the bottom of the Serie C - Girone A table, with Desenzano Calvina 14th and Juventus U23 16th. The tight points gap increases the stakes for this match, as a home win could provide vital breathing room and momentum, while Juventus U23 must improve defensively to climb the standings.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDesenzano Calvina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Load more odds for this section
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The of 2.4 for Desenzano Calvina to win reflect a positive value opportunity, as the model assigns a 59.1% chance, well above the implied 41.7%. This price sensitivity suggests the market underestimates Desenzano Calvina's defensive strengths and recent form, making the home win an attractive bet with a solid .
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Desenzano Calvina wins
0Draws
0Juventus U23 wins
Market aligned with main pickDesenzano Calvina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
No previous meetings between Desenzano Calvina and Juventus U23 exist to provide direct historical context. Therefore, current form, defensive solidity, and tactical matchups carry greater weight in assessing the likely outcome of this fixture.
Season team stats

Serie C - Girone A

Desenzano Calvina6
Played
Juventus U236
Desenzano Calvina0.7
Avg goals for
Juventus U231.2
Desenzano Calvina1
Avg goals against
Juventus U232.2
Desenzano Calvina2
Clean sheets
Juventus U232
Market aligned with main pickDesenzano Calvina to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Load more odds for this section
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Season-long stats reveal Desenzano Calvina's stronger defensive record compared to Juventus U23's porous backline. While Juventus U23 scores more, their defensive concessions undermine their overall effectiveness. Desenzano Calvina's balanced approach with fewer goals scored but better defensive discipline aligns with the model's home win preference.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Desenzano Calvina Over 2.5
60%Juventus U23 Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Juventus U23's games have featured a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open play and defensive lapses. Desenzano Calvina's matches have a 40% over 2.5 rate, reflecting more cautious tactics. This trend suggests a moderate tempo with scoring chances mainly from Juventus U23's attacking intent and defensive gaps.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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