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Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF
v
Hammarby FF crestHammarby FF

Allsvenskan | Sun 20 Sep, 15:30

Degerfors IF v Hammarby FF Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hammarby FF hosts Degerfors IF in an Allsvenskan clash where the home side's potent attack meets a struggling away team. Hammarby, second in the table, have regained momentum with strong home performances, boasting 28 goals in 13 matches and a high possession style that creates sustained pressure. Degerfors, 14th and winless in eight, face midfield suspensions that weaken their defensive structure. The tactical battle will test Hammarby's patience to break down a compact Degerfors defense while managing transitions carefully. Both teams have much at stake, with Hammarby aiming to maintain form and Degerfors seeking to halt their decline.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 64%, above the 53% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Hammarby scored 28 goals in 13 league matches, showing strong attacking form.
  • Hammarby average 19.3 attempts and 6.1 shots on target per game over last 10 matches.
  • Degerfors are winless in eight league games, struggling to create clear chances.
  • Hammarby earn 5.9 corners per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure.
Price warning

Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 64% while the model sits nearer 53% (-10.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Degerfors IF Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 5.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model favors Over 2.5 Goals due to Hammarby's high attacking output and sustained pressure metrics, including an average of 19.3 shots and 6.1 shots on target per game. Degerfors' defensive vulnerabilities and midfield absences increase the likelihood of multiple goals. The 3.67 average goals in their last nine meetings further support a high-scoring game. The price at 1.67 offers a positive of 5.5%, making this a solid selection based on both data and tactical context.

Hammarby attacking volume28 goals in 13 matches, 19.3 attempts/game
Strong positive
Degerfors defensive weaknessWinless in 8 games, midfield suspensions
Positive
H2H average goals3.67 goals per match in last 9 meetings
Positive
Price vs model chance1.67 odds, 65.4% model chance, 5.5% value edge
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Hammarby's attacking rhythm and home control make Over 2.5 Goals a fitting choice. Their ability to sustain pressure and create multiple shots on target contrasts with Degerfors' depleted midfield and recent scoring struggles, suggesting a match likely to feature several goals.

Main risk

However, the system can be pulled apart if Hammarby circulate the ball quickly from one side to the other.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics

“Hammarby's blend of possession control and attacking variety, combined with Degerfors' defensive frailties and suspensions, sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter at 3Arena.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Hammarby scored 28 goals in 13 league matches, showing strong attacking form.

Hammarby average 19.3 attempts and 6.1 shots on target per game over last 10 matches.

Degerfors are winless in eight league games, struggling to create clear chances.

Hammarby earn 5.9 corners per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last nine meetings between these teams have averaged 3.67 goals per game, indicating a historical tendency for high-scoring encounters.
  • Recent matches show Hammarby's ability to break down Degerfors' defense, suggesting the trend will continue in this fixture with a fast tempo and multiple goal opportunities.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Degerfors IF5.4
Avg corners for
Hammarby FF7.6
Degerfors IF12.8
Avg total corners
Hammarby FF10
Degerfors IF1.6
Avg yellow cards
Hammarby FF1
Degerfors IF12
Avg shots
Hammarby FF25.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Hammarby averages 7 corners and 24.33 shots per game, evidencing territorial control and sustained pressure. Their 1.33 yellow cards per match reflect a disciplined approach, while Degerfors' lower corner and shot metrics suggest a reactive posture. This imbalance supports a game with frequent attacking phases and set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Degerfors IF1
Avg goals scored
Hammarby FF2.4
Degerfors IF1.2
Avg goals conceded
Hammarby FF1
Degerfors IF0%
BTTS rate
Hammarby FF60%
Degerfors IF20%
Over 2.5 goals
Hammarby FF60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 64% · edge -10.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Hammarby's 60% rate of Over 2.5 matches and BTTS aligns with their attacking style, while Degerfors' limited scoring reduces BTTS likelihood. The tactical setup suggests multiple goals from Hammarby but a lower chance of Degerfors scoring, favoring Over 2.5 with BTTS No or Under 3.5 Goals as complementary routes.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 64% · edge -10.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Degerfors IF Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Degerfors IF to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Hammarby FF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.67, reflecting a 59.9% implied chance, while the model estimates a 65.4% probability, indicating a modest . This pricing aligns well with Hammarby's offensive strength and Degerfors' defensive issues, making the market a sensible selection rather than a speculative punt.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Degerfors IF

LWLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
14 Sep 2026A Sirius0-2
05 Sep 2026H Halmstad2-0
29 Aug 2026A IF Elfsborg0-2
23 Aug 2026A IF Brommapojkarna0-2
16 Aug 2026H IFK Goteborg3-0

Hammarby FF

WDLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
13 Sep 2026H IF Brommapojkarna3-1
06 Sep 2026A Orgryte IS1-1
30 Aug 2026A AIK Stockholm2-3
23 Aug 2026H Gais2-0
16 Aug 2026A Kalmar FF4-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Load more odds for this section
Degerfors IF Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Degerfors IF to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Hammarby FF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Hammarby have collected 10 points recently with a 60% Over 2.5 rate, reflecting consistent goal-scoring and offensive pressure. Degerfors' recent form is poor, with no wins and limited goals, suggesting they are unlikely to contain Hammarby's attack or contribute significantly to the scoreline, reinforcing the Over 2.5 expectation.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Degerfors IF wins
2Draws
7Hammarby FF wins
19 Jul 2026Hammarby FF v Degerfors IF4-0
03 Nov 2025Degerfors IF v Hammarby FF1-1
26 May 2025Hammarby FF v Degerfors IF1-0
25 May 2023Degerfors IF v Hammarby FF2-2
02 Apr 2023Hammarby FF v Degerfors IF3-1
22 Aug 2022Hammarby FF v Degerfors IF5-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 64% · edge -10.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Degerfors IF to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Hammarby FF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
The head-to-head sample of nine matches shows an average of 3.67 goals per game, strongly supporting a high-scoring outcome. Hammarby have not lost to Degerfors in their last eight meetings, indicating psychological and tactical control that often translates into multiple goals scored by the home side.
Season team stats

Allsvenskan

Degerfors IF21
Played
Hammarby FF21
Degerfors IF0.9
Avg goals for
Hammarby FF2.3
Degerfors IF1.6
Avg goals against
Hammarby FF1
Degerfors IF3
Clean sheets
Hammarby FF8
Best odds for this sectionDegerfors IF Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Degerfors IF to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Hammarby FF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Hammarby's season-long scoring average of over two goals per game and high shot volume underpin their capacity to produce high-scoring matches. Degerfors' defensive struggles and low scoring rate further increase the likelihood of a match with three or more goals, consistent with the Over 2.5 Goals market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Hammarby FF4021124528
14Degerfors IF19215412-14
Hammarby sit 3rd with 40 points, reflecting strong home form and offensive efficiency, while Degerfors are 14th with 19 points, struggling for wins and goals. This disparity in league position and form supports a dominant Hammarby performance with multiple goals scored.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Degerfors IF Over 2.5
60%Hammarby FF Over 2.5
3.67H2H avg goals
The last nine meetings between these teams have averaged 3.67 goals per game, indicating a historical tendency for high-scoring encounters. Recent matches show Hammarby's ability to break down Degerfors' defense, suggesting the trend will continue in this fixture with a fast tempo and multiple goal opportunities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Degerfors IF v Hammarby FF prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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