Football Stats Hub

Czechia crestCzechia
v
Croatia crestCroatia

UEFA Nations League | Sat 26 Sep, 19:45

Czechia v Croatia Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Czechia hosts Croatia in a UEFA Nations League clash where both sides aim to assert control early in the campaign. With tight competition in the group, attacking intent is expected as Czechia looks to leverage home advantage and Croatia seeks to respond with their technical prowess. Both teams have shown offensive capabilities in recent fixtures, setting the stage for an open encounter with potential for multiple goals. Tactical setups suggest a balanced approach but with enough forward momentum to create scoring opportunities on both ends.

BT4Y match pick

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have averaged around 3 goals per match in recent head-to-head clashes.
  • Czechia's attackers, including J. Schick, show high shot volumes and goal threat.
  • Croatia's forward I. Matanović contributes solid shot numbers, indicating attacking intent.
  • The model estimates a 54.8% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting moderate in goals.
  • Price is slightly short, suggesting cautious staking despite the attacking profiles.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 2.5 Goals due to the attacking profiles of both teams and recent head-to-head averages of 3 goals per game. Czechia's forwards, particularly J. Kliment with over 6 shots per 90 minutes and strong shot accuracy, combine with Croatia's offensive efforts to support a goal-rich match. Although the price is slightly short, the tactical balance and player roles indicate a reasonable chance for multiple goals. Limited recent form data suggests monitoring line-ups and in-play dynamics for confirmation.

Head-to-Head Goals Average3 goals per match over last 4 meetings
Strong positive
Czechia Attacking VolumeJ. Kliment 6.43 shots/90, 3.21 SOT/90
Strong positive
Croatia Offensive ThreatI. Matanović 2.9 shots/90, 1.94 SOT/90
Positive
Model Probability54.8% chance for Over 2.5 Goals
Positive
Price SensitivitySlightly short price with -2.3% value edge
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Czechia's dynamic forwards and Croatia's technical attackers pushing for goals. The attacking roles and historical goal averages suggest Over 2.5 Goals is a plausible outcome, supported by the teams' offensive tendencies and tactical openness in this Nations League fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Over 2.5 Goals

“This fixture features two sides with clear attacking intent and capable forwards, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical expectation despite the price being slightly short. The balance of offensive pressure and historical goal trends points to a lively, goal-rich match.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have averaged around 3 goals per match in recent head-to-head clashes.

Czechia's attackers, including J. Schick, show high shot volumes and goal threat.

Croatia's forward I. Matanović contributes solid shot numbers, indicating attacking intent.

The model estimates a 54.8% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting moderate in goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last four meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a trend toward matches with multiple goals.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and tactical openness conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both teams historically engaging in attacking play that yields scoring chances and goals.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Czechia wins
3Draws
1Croatia wins
09 Oct 2025Czechia v Croatia0-0
09 Jun 2025Croatia v Czechia5-1
18 Jun 2021Croatia v Czechia1-1
17 Jun 2016Czechia v Croatia2-2
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 57% · edge -2.3 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Croatia to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Czechia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The four most recent head-to-head matches between Czechia and Croatia have produced an average of 3 goals per game, demonstrating a history of open, attacking contests. This trend supports expectations for a goal-rich encounter, though the small sample size advises considering current form and tactical setups as well.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Czechia

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Czechia yet.

Croatia

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Croatia yet.

Best odds for this sectionCroatia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 50% · edge +2.5 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Croatia to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Czechia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Czechia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form data is limited, but the model's moderate in Over 2.5 Goals reflects the attacking potential observed in player statistics and historical encounters. Both teams have shown offensive capabilities in prior matches, suggesting a propensity for goals despite the absence of detailed recent scoring trends.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Czechia-
Avg goals scored
Croatia-
Czechia-
Avg goals conceded
Croatia-
Czechia-
BTTS rate
Croatia-
Czechia-
Over 2.5 goals
Croatia-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 57% · edge -2.3 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Recent head-to-head matches between Czechia and Croatia have averaged 3 goals per game, reflecting a tendency for open play and goal opportunities. Both teams possess attacking players capable of scoring and creating chances, supporting the likelihood of goals and BTTS scenarios in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 57% · edge -2.3 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Croatia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Croatia to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Czechia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Czechia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced slightly short compared to the model's 54.8% probability, indicating cautious value. The current suggest the market anticipates a moderately high-scoring game but with some uncertainty, so reduced stakes are advisable until further confirmation from team news or early match flow.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Nations League

Czechia0
Played
Croatia0
Czechia0
Avg goals for
Croatia0
Czechia0
Avg goals against
Croatia0
Czechia0
Clean sheets
Croatia0
Best odds for this sectionCroatia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 50% · edge +2.5 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Croatia to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Czechia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Czechia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season-long attacking stats highlight Czechia's high shot volume and goal threat from forwards like Kliment and Schick, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals angle. Croatia's offensive numbers, while slightly lower, still indicate a capacity to contribute to a higher-scoring game, especially when facing an open opponent.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Czechia000000
2Croatia000000
Czechia and Croatia sit first and second in their Nations League group, respectively, creating competitive stakes that encourage attacking play to secure early points. The close standings add incentive for both sides to push forward, potentially increasing goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Czechia Over 2.5
-Croatia Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last four meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a trend toward matches with multiple goals. This sample suggests a tempo and tactical openness conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both teams historically engaging in attacking play that yields scoring chances and goals.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Armenia v LatviaUEFA Nations League · Fri 25 Sep 17:00Georgia v Northern IrelandUEFA Nations League · Fri 25 Sep 17:00Sweden v RomaniaUEFA Nations League · Fri 25 Sep 19:45Poland v Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League · Fri 25 Sep 19:45

Competition and hubs

UEFA Nations League hubUEFA Nations League hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets research

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre