Football Stats Hub

Georgia crestGeorgia
v
Northern Ireland crestNorthern Ireland

UEFA Nations League | Fri 25 Sep, 17:00

Georgia v Northern Ireland Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 06:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Georgia face Northern Ireland in UEFA Nations League on Fri 25 Sep, 17:00. Northern Ireland vs Georgia: Green and White Army can tighten grip on Group B2.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Northern Ireland to win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 42%, above the 22% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 7/5, Northern Ireland to win implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 22%.
  • Three games have produced no goals, while Northern Ireland have conceded none.
  • Georgia sit 4 in the table, while Northern Ireland sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Northern Ireland to win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 42% while the model sits nearer 22% (-19.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Northern Ireland Draw No Bet shows a +6.9 pts edge at 2.85.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 22% for Northern Ireland to win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. Georgia sit 4 in the table, while Northern Ireland sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read. Three games have produced no goals, while Northern Ireland have conceded none.

Model chance vs price22% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Negative
Georgia sit 4 in the table, while Northern Ireland sit.Visible data support
Positive
Three games have produced no goals, while Northern Ireland.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Northern Ireland Win is the preferred angle because three games have produced no goals, while Northern Ireland have conceded none. Georgia sit 4 in the table, while Northern Ireland sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read. Svanadze’s first match delivered Georgia’s only point of the campaign, but Friday’s defeat in Hungary left them needing a significant improvement.

Main risk

Svanadze’s first match delivered Georgia’s only point of the campaign, but Friday’s defeat in Hungary left them needing a significant improvement.

Key Data Signals

Northern Ireland to win evidence

Three games have produced no goals, while Northern Ireland have conceded none.

Georgia sit 4 in the table, while Northern Ireland sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Northern Ireland to win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNorthern Ireland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 22% vs implied 22% · edge +0 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Northern Ireland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Northern Ireland to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Georgia-
    Avg goals scored
    Northern Ireland-
    Georgia-
    Avg goals conceded
    Northern Ireland-
    Georgia-
    BTTS rate
    Northern Ireland-
    Georgia-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Northern Ireland-
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 47% · edge +3.5 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Georgia

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Georgia yet.

    Northern Ireland

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Northern Ireland yet.

    Market aligned with main pickNorthern Ireland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 22% vs implied 22% · edge +0 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Northern Ireland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Georgia Over 2.5
    -Northern Ireland Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    Three games have produced no goals, while Northern Ireland have conceded none.

    Loading deeper match data…