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CSKA Sofia crestCSKA Sofia
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OFI crestOFI

UEFA Europa League | Thu 27 Aug, 19:00

CSKA Sofia v OFI Stats

Data last updated: Wed 26 Aug 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

The Europa League playoff first leg between OFI Crete and CSKA Sofia sets a compelling stage as OFI return to European competition with fresh legs after a single competitive match, while CSKA Sofia arrive battle-hardened with 11 fixtures under their belt. CSKA's potent attack, averaging 2.4 goals and nearly 17 attempts per game recently, contrasts with OFI's defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 1.8 goals and allowing over 5 shots on target per match. OFI's home advantage and recent Super Cup resilience add intrigue, but CSKA's rhythm and offensive depth suggest an open, high-scoring encounter in Heraklion.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • CSKA Sofia average 2.4 goals and 16.9 attempts per game in recent matches.
  • OFI concede 1.8 goals per game and allow 5.4 shots on target, indicating defensive frailty.
  • CSKA have played 11 competitive matches this season, showing strong match sharpness.
  • OFI have only one competitive match but showed resilience in their Super Cup win.
  • Joel Zwarts leads CSKA's attack with six goals in ten appearances, adding firepower.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals highly due to CSKA Sofia's consistent attacking output, averaging 2.4 goals and 6.4 shots on target per game, combined with OFI's defensive record conceding 1.8 goals and allowing 5.4 shots on target per match. This statistical contrast, alongside CSKA's superior match sharpness and multiple scoring threats, creates a strong likelihood of a high-scoring game. The current reflect fair value with a 27.7% edge, supporting a standard stake approach.

CSKA Sofia attacking volume2.4 goals and 16.9 attempts per game
Strong positive
OFI defensive concessions1.8 goals conceded and 5.4 shots on target allowed per game
Strong positive
Match sharpness disparityCSKA with 11 competitive matches vs OFI's 1
Positive
Value edge27.7% positive edge at odds of 2.0
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively match with CSKA Sofia's attacking rhythm likely to challenge OFI's defense repeatedly. CSKA's multiple goal threats and recent scoring consistency provide a solid foundation for a high-scoring game, while OFI's home motivation and resilience could add to the goal tally. Over 2.5 Goals is a fitting selection given these tactical and statistical factors.

Main risk

CSKA's multiple attacking threats and OFI's ability to score at home make this exact score plausible despite the inherent risk of variance.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Offensive pressure and defensive weaknesses

“CSKA Sofia's sustained offensive pressure combined with OFI's defensive vulnerabilities sets the stage for a match where multiple goals are highly probable, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling market to watch.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

CSKA Sofia average 2.4 goals and 16.9 attempts per game in recent matches.

OFI concede 1.8 goals per game and allow 5.4 shots on target, indicating defensive frailty.

CSKA have played 11 competitive matches this season, showing strong match sharpness.

OFI have only one competitive match but showed resilience in their Super Cup win.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The Over 2.5 Goals trend panel from recent matches and head-to-head data shows an average of 3 goals in their only previous meeting, supporting the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
  • Both teams' recent matches feature open play and defensive concessions, indicating a tempo conducive to multiple goals in this Europa League playoff first leg.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

CSKA Sofia0.8
Avg goals scored
OFI3
CSKA Sofia1.2
Avg goals conceded
OFI0
CSKA Sofia20%
BTTS rate
OFI0%
CSKA Sofia60%
Over 2.5 goals
OFI100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have shown capacity to score, with CSKA averaging 2.4 goals and OFI managing 1.3 in recent matches. However, OFI's BTTS rate is low, reflecting their defensive struggles and reliance on efficiency. The expectation is for multiple goals overall, with CSKA's offensive pressure likely to break through, supporting Over 2.5 Goals rather than a BTTS focus.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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OFI Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.15
Check odds @ 4.15
OFI to WinBetUK guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
CSKA Sofia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
CSKA Sofia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 29%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at even , reflecting a 50% implied probability, while the model estimates a 77.7% chance, indicating strong value. This discrepancy suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of multiple goals, supported by CSKA's high attacking output and OFI's defensive record. The price is attractive for standard staking without caution flags.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

CSKA Sofia1.5
Avg corners for
OFI1
CSKA Sofia2.5
Avg total corners
OFI5
CSKA Sofia3.75
Avg yellow cards
OFI0
CSKA Sofia0
Avg shots
OFI0
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 29%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The match is expected to feature sustained attacking pressure from CSKA Sofia, who average 6.4 shots on target per game, while OFI concede 5.4 shots on target. Both teams have modest corner averages, but CSKA's higher shot volume suggests more attacking territory and set-piece opportunities. Discipline-wise, CSKA averages more yellow cards, indicating a more physical approach that could influence match tempo and fouls.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

CSKA Sofia

LLWDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
20 Aug 2026A OFI0-3
13 Aug 2026H Maccabi Tel Aviv1-3
06 Aug 2026A Maccabi Tel Aviv3-0
30 Jul 2026H Qarabag0-0
23 Jul 2026A Qarabag0-0

OFI

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
20 Aug 2026H CSKA Sofia3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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OFI Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.15
Check odds @ 4.15
OFI to WinBetUK guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
CSKA Sofia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
CSKA Sofia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 29%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Recent form data shows CSKA Sofia with a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, reflecting their consistent ability to produce high-scoring matches. OFI have a 100% Over 2.5 rate in limited recent games, indicating openness in matches they play. These trends align with the expectation of multiple goals, reinforcing the selection of Over 2.5 Goals for this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0CSKA Sofia wins
0Draws
1OFI wins
20 Aug 2026OFI v CSKA Sofia3-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
OFI to WinBetUK guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
CSKA Sofia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 29%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
The single previous meeting between CSKA Sofia and OFI Crete featured an average of 3 goals, indicating a precedent for a high-scoring encounter. While the limited sample size tempers the strength of this evidence, it aligns with current form and tactical profiles suggesting multiple goals are likely.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

CSKA Sofia7
Played
OFI1
CSKA Sofia1.4
Avg goals for
OFI3
CSKA Sofia1.3
Avg goals against
OFI0
CSKA Sofia3
Clean sheets
OFI1
Best odds for this sectionOFI Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.15
Check odds @ 4.15
Load more odds for this section
OFI to WinBetUK guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
CSKA Sofia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
CSKA Sofia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 29%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Season-long statistics underline CSKA Sofia's offensive strength, averaging 2.4 goals per game and generating nearly 17 attempts, while OFI's defensive record shows 1.8 goals conceded per match with opponents averaging 11.7 attempts. This imbalance supports a high-scoring outlook, with CSKA's attack likely to exploit OFI's defensive gaps.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%CSKA Sofia Over 2.5
100%OFI Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 Goals trend panel from recent matches and head-to-head data shows an average of 3 goals in their only previous meeting, supporting the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Both teams' recent matches feature open play and defensive concessions, indicating a tempo conducive to multiple goals in this Europa League playoff first leg.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

CSKA Sofia v OFI prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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