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Cruzeiro crestCruzeiro
v
Atletico Paranaense crestAtletico Paranaense

Serie A | Sun 06 Sep, 20:00

Cruzeiro v Atletico Paranaense Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Cruzeiro hosting Atletico Paranaense in a contest between two sides with strong attacking credentials and a shared tendency to concede. Cruzeiro has been prolific at home, averaging 1.8 goals scored and conceding 1.2 per game, while Atletico Paranaense mirrors this offensive output. Both teams have shown a willingness to engage in open play, contributing to high-scoring encounters. The fixture carries significance as both teams aim to consolidate their positions near the top of the table, promising an intense and open match with multiple goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams average 1.8 goals scored per game this season, indicating strong attacking form.
  • Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense concede 1.2 goals per game on average, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Cruzeiro has an 80% BTTS rate, while Atletico Paranaense's BTTS rate stands at 60%.
  • Average shots on target are balanced, with Cruzeiro at 5.0 and Atletico Paranaense at 5.2 per game.
  • Recent form shows both teams earning points consistently, supporting competitive and open play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, reflecting the attacking potency and defensive openness of Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense. Both sides average nearly two goals scored per game and concede over one, creating a fertile environment for goals at both ends. The BTTS rates of 80% for Cruzeiro and 60% for Atletico Paranaense further reinforce this likelihood. The at 1.91 offer positive value given the model's higher probability estimate, making this a compelling selection with standard staking recommended.

Model Chance76%
Strong positive
Cruzeiro BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Atletico Paranaense BTTS Rate60%
Positive
Implied Market Chance52.4%
Strong positive
Value Edge23.6%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense have demonstrated attacking flair and defensive lapses that make both teams scoring a logical expectation. The consistent goal output and BTTS rates indicate an open game where both sides are likely to breach the opposition's defense. This pick aligns well with the tactical openness and recent scoring trends of both teams.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS market

“The attacking balance and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides set the stage for a match where goals at both ends are highly probable, making BTTS a smart tactical read for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams average 1.8 goals scored per game this season, indicating strong attacking form.

Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense concede 1.2 goals per game on average, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities.

Cruzeiro has an 80% BTTS rate, while Atletico Paranaense's BTTS rate stands at 60%.

Average shots on target are balanced, with Cruzeiro at 5.0 and Atletico Paranaense at 5.2 per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.5, with Cruzeiro featuring in 80% of games exceeding 2.5 goals and Atletico Paranaense in 40%.
  • This trend suggests a moderately high tempo and goal frequency, with transitions and open play contributing to scoring chances.
  • The data supports an expectation of a lively match with multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cruzeiro1.8
Avg goals scored
Atletico Paranaense1.8
Cruzeiro1.2
Avg goals conceded
Atletico Paranaense1.2
Cruzeiro80%
BTTS rate
Atletico Paranaense60%
Cruzeiro80%
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico Paranaense40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, underpinning a high BTTS rate—80% for Cruzeiro and 60% for Atletico Paranaense. This combination of offensive efficiency and defensive openness creates a fertile environment for goals at both ends. The 10-match head-to-head average of 2.5 goals further supports the expectation of a goal-rich encounter with both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Cruzeiro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Atletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
The current of 1.91 for both teams to score represent attractive value compared to the model's 76% probability. This positive suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of goals from both sides, likely due to the balanced attacking and defensive profiles of Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense. The price is stable and warrants a standard stake given the strong statistical backing.

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Serie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Cruzeiro3.8
Avg corners for
Atletico Paranaense4.4
Cruzeiro8.2
Avg total corners
Atletico Paranaense11.8
Cruzeiro2.4
Avg yellow cards
Atletico Paranaense1.6
Cruzeiro16.2
Avg shots
Atletico Paranaense11.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams generate a healthy volume of shots, with Cruzeiro averaging 16.2 shots and 5 on target, and Atletico Paranaense producing 11.4 shots with 5.2 on target per game. Corner counts are balanced, reflecting active wing play and sustained pressure. Discipline-wise, Cruzeiro averages 2.4 yellow cards per game compared to 1.6 for Atletico Paranaense, indicating a moderately physical contest that could influence set-piece opportunities and game flow.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cruzeiro

LWWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
30 Aug 2026A Vasco DA Gama1-3
23 Aug 2026H Flamengo2-1
16 Aug 2026A Corinthians2-1
09 Aug 2026H Mirassol3-1
31 Jul 2026A Coritiba1-0

Atletico Paranaense

DWDWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 4D 0L
30 Aug 2026H Fluminense3-3
25 Aug 2026A Botafogo3-2
15 Aug 2026H RB Bragantino1-1
09 Aug 2026A Santos2-0
30 Jul 2026A Corinthians0-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 82% vs implied 83% · edge -1.6 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Load more odds for this section
Cruzeiro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Atletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form data reveals Cruzeiro has accumulated 12 points with an 80% BTTS rate, while Atletico Paranaense has 9 points and a 60% BTTS rate. Both teams have maintained consistent scoring and conceding patterns, suggesting continued offensive productivity and defensive vulnerabilities. This form profile supports the likelihood of both teams scoring in the upcoming fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Cruzeiro wins
4Draws
4Atletico Paranaense wins
18 Mar 2026Atletico Paranaense v Cruzeiro2-1
26 Oct 2024Atletico Paranaense v Cruzeiro3-0
26 Jun 2024Cruzeiro v Atletico Paranaense2-0
30 Nov 2023Cruzeiro v Atletico Paranaense1-1
29 Jul 2023Atletico Paranaense v Cruzeiro3-3
07 Nov 2019Atletico Paranaense v Cruzeiro0-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Cruzeiro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Atletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The last ten meetings between Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense have averaged 2.5 goals per game, indicating a history of relatively open contests. While this sample is moderate, it aligns with the current attacking and defensive profiles of both teams, providing useful context that both sides have previously found opportunities to score against each other.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Cruzeiro25
Played
Atletico Paranaense25
Cruzeiro1.4
Avg goals for
Atletico Paranaense1.5
Cruzeiro1.4
Avg goals against
Atletico Paranaense1
Cruzeiro5
Clean sheets
Atletico Paranaense8
Best odds for this sectionCruzeiro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 53% · edge +3 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Atletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Season-long statistics show both teams scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding 1.2, reflecting balanced offensive strength and defensive frailty. Cruzeiro's higher BTTS rate of 80% compared to Atletico Paranaense's 60% indicates a slightly greater propensity for both teams to score when they play. These season stats reinforce the expectation of goals at both ends in this match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Atletico Paranaense4525136612
6Cruzeiro39251168-1
Cruzeiro sits 6th with 39 points, while Atletico Paranaense is 3rd with 45 points, highlighting both teams' competitive positions in Serie A. Although the standings indicate strong overall performance, the focus remains on their attacking and defensive tendencies rather than table pressure, which is moderate at this stage of the season.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Cruzeiro Over 2.5
40%Atletico Paranaense Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.5, with Cruzeiro featuring in 80% of games exceeding 2.5 goals and Atletico Paranaense in 40%. This trend suggests a moderately high tempo and goal frequency, with transitions and open play contributing to scoring chances. The data supports an expectation of a lively match with multiple goals.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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