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Crotone crestCrotone
v
Salernitana crestSalernitana

Serie C - Girone C | Sat 26 Sep, 13:30

Crotone v Salernitana Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Salernitana enters this Serie C Girone C clash with strong momentum, having secured maximum points in their opening fixtures and sitting comfortably in 9th place. Crotone, struggling at the bottom of the table without points, face a tough challenge to halt Salernitana's upward trajectory. Salernitana's more efficient defense and higher goal-scoring rate suggest tactical control and sharper execution, positioning them as favorites despite the away setting. The match carries significant pressure for Crotone to avoid a deepening crisis, while Salernitana aims to consolidate their promising start.

BT4Y best bet

Salernitana to Win

  • Salernitana holds a 70% to win, indicating strong statistical backing.
  • Crotone has yet to earn points this season, highlighting form struggles.
  • Salernitana concedes fewer goals (1.0 per game) compared to Crotone (1.6), showing defensive solidity.
  • Salernitana’s goal scoring average (1.6) surpasses Crotone’s (1.0), reflecting attacking edge.
  • Historical head-to-head matches average 2 goals, suggesting moderate scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Salernitana to win due to their superior recent form, better defensive record, and higher league standing. Their ability to limit goals conceded while maintaining a higher scoring rate creates a strong football read for victory. The of 70% significantly exceeds the implied market chance of 40.8%, indicating clear value in backing Salernitana. This is supported by Crotone’s current struggles and lack of points, making Salernitana the logical choice for a confident bet.

Recent FormSalernitana has 9 points vs. Crotone's 3
Strong positive
Defensive RecordSalernitana concedes 1.0 goals/game vs. Crotone's 1.6
Positive
Goal ScoringSalernitana averages 1.6 goals/game vs. Crotone's 1.0
Positive
League PositionSalernitana 9th vs. Crotone 20th
Positive
Value Edge29.2% positive edge on odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Salernitana’s superior form and defensive stability make them the tactical and statistical favorite in this fixture. Their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Crotone’s struggles, suggesting a likely away win. This bet aligns well with both recent performances and season-long trends.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Salernitana’s consistent defensive shape and sharper attack give them a clear edge over a Crotone side still searching for form. Their balanced approach should secure the three points in this contest.”

Key Data Signals

Salernitana to Win evidence

Salernitana holds a 70% to win, indicating strong statistical backing.

Crotone has yet to earn points this season, highlighting form struggles.

Salernitana concedes fewer goals (1.0 per game) compared to Crotone (1.6), showing defensive solidity.

Salernitana’s goal scoring average (1.6) surpasses Crotone’s (1.0), reflecting attacking edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Salernitana to Win notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, suggesting a moderately paced game.
  • The trend indicates that while goals are present, the fixture tends not to be high scoring, aligning with the tactical discipline expected from both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Crotone1
Avg goals scored
Salernitana1.6
Crotone1.6
Avg goals conceded
Salernitana1
Crotone60%
BTTS rate
Salernitana80%
Crotone40%
Over 2.5 goals
Salernitana20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Goal trends indicate moderate scoring with an average of 2 goals in recent head-to-heads. Salernitana’s higher scoring rate combined with Crotone’s defensive vulnerabilities suggests goals are likely, but the relatively low over 2.5 goals rates imply a controlled game rather than a high-scoring affair.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Crotone

DLDDL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 3L
20 Sep 2026A SS Monopoli2-2
15 Sep 2026H Inter U230-2
12 Sep 2026A Savoia1-1
05 Sep 2026H Barletta2-2
29 Aug 2026A Sorrento0-1

Salernitana

WDWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 1L
19 Sep 2026H Giugliano1-0
15 Sep 2026A Barletta1-1
11 Sep 2026H Potenza4-2
06 Sep 2026H Cavese1-1
29 Aug 2026A Foggia1-1
Market aligned with main pickSalernitana to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Salernitana Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Salernitana’s perfect start with 9 points contrasts sharply with Crotone’s zero points, highlighting a clear momentum advantage. This form gap reflects better team cohesion and tactical execution, reinforcing Salernitana’s status as favorites to win this match.

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League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Salernitana962312
20Crotone06033-4
Salernitana’s mid-table position with 9 points provides a stable platform and less pressure compared to Crotone’s bottom placement with no points. This difference in league standing reflects the teams’ contrasting starts and adds psychological advantage to Salernitana.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSalernitana to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Salernitana Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The current for Salernitana to win reflect significant value, with the model estimating a 70% chance versus an implied market chance of just 40.8%. This discrepancy suggests the market underestimates Salernitana’s likelihood of victory, making the bet price-sensitive and attractive for backing.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Crotone wins
3Draws
2Salernitana wins
15 Mar 2026Crotone v Salernitana0-1
10 Nov 2025Salernitana v Crotone0-0
17 Jul 2020Crotone v Salernitana1-1
15 Dec 2019Salernitana v Crotone3-2
10 Mar 2019Salernitana v Crotone0-2
28 Oct 2018Crotone v Salernitana1-1
Market aligned with main pickSalernitana to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The six previous meetings between these teams have averaged 2 goals per game, indicating a balanced historical contest. While this supports a competitive match, it only weakly supports a high-scoring outcome or a dominant win, emphasizing the importance of current form and tactical setup.
Season team stats

Serie C - Girone C

Crotone6
Played
Salernitana6
Crotone0.8
Avg goals for
Salernitana1.5
Crotone1.5
Avg goals against
Salernitana1.2
Crotone0
Clean sheets
Salernitana1
Market aligned with main pickSalernitana to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Salernitana Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Season-long statistics show Salernitana scoring more goals per game and conceding fewer than Crotone, indicating a more balanced and effective team performance. This statistical profile supports the likelihood of Salernitana securing victory through both offensive and defensive strengths.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Crotone Over 2.5
20%Salernitana Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, suggesting a moderately paced game. The trend indicates that while goals are present, the fixture tends not to be high scoring, aligning with the tactical discipline expected from both sides.

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Prediction context

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