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AZ Picerno crestAZ Picerno
v
Audace Cerignola crestAudace Cerignola

Serie C - Girone C | Sat 26 Sep, 16:30

AZ Picerno v Audace Cerignola Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AZ Picerno and Audace Cerignola meet in a Serie C - Girone C clash where attacking intent and recent scoring trends set the stage for an open encounter. AZ Picerno has shown a tendency for higher-scoring games with a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Audace Cerignola's more conservative defense concedes fewer goals but still participates in fixtures with goal opportunities. Both sides are mid-table with close points, adding competitive edge without relegation or promotion pressure. Tactical setups suggest willingness to engage offensively, making goal-scoring chances likely throughout the 90 minutes.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • AZ Picerno's matches have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.
  • Audace Cerignola concedes only 0.8 goals per game but participates in open games.
  • The head-to-head average goals per game is 2.13 across 8 meetings.
  • Both teams have similar points and mid-table standings, indicating balanced competition.
  • Recent form shows AZ Picerno scoring 1.8 goals per game, Audace Cerignola 1.4, supporting goal potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 52% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, slightly above the market's implied 48.8%, indicating a small positive . AZ Picerno's 60% Over 2.5 rate and Audace Cerignola's openness in matches support this. The head-to-head average goals of 2.13 also align with a moderately high-scoring game. Both teams' recent scoring and conceding patterns suggest an open game with goal opportunities at both ends. No data limitations affect , and the price reflects a fair value for this goal market.

Model Chance52%
Positive
Market Implied Chance48.8%
Positive
AZ Picerno Over 2.5 Rate60%
Positive
Audace Cerignola Defensive Record0.8 goals against per game
Neutral
H2H Average Goals2.13 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both teams showing offensive intent and a tendency for goals in recent matches. AZ Picerno's higher scoring rate combined with Audace Cerignola's willingness to engage offensively suggests Over 2.5 Goals is a reasonable expectation. The head-to-head history supports a moderately high goal count, making this bet tactically and statistically sound.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“This fixture features two sides with contrasting defensive profiles but shared attacking ambitions, creating a fertile ground for goals. AZ Picerno's openness and Audace Cerignola's balanced approach should produce a lively match with multiple scoring chances.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

AZ Picerno's matches have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.

Audace Cerignola concedes only 0.8 goals per game but participates in open games.

The head-to-head average goals per game is 2.13 across 8 meetings.

Both teams have similar points and mid-table standings, indicating balanced competition.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last eight head-to-head matches average 2.13 goals per game, showing a trend towards moderately scoring games.
  • This sample suggests a tempo that balances attacking efforts with defensive caution, supporting the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals but not an excessively high-scoring affair.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AZ Picerno1.8
Avg goals scored
Audace Cerignola1.4
AZ Picerno1.6
Avg goals conceded
Audace Cerignola0.8
AZ Picerno60%
BTTS rate
Audace Cerignola20%
AZ Picerno60%
Over 2.5 goals
Audace Cerignola40%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 49% · edge +3.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have shown mixed BTTS rates, with AZ Picerno at 60% and Audace Cerignola at 20%, suggesting AZ Picerno's matches often see goals at both ends while Audace Cerignola's games are less consistent. The average goals per game in their head-to-head is 2.13, supporting a moderate goal expectation with potential for multiple scorers.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AZ Picerno

LLLWW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 3L
19 Sep 2026A Team Altamura1-2
15 Sep 2026H Catania2-4
12 Sep 2026A Sorrento0-1
07 Sep 2026H Inter U234-1
28 Aug 2026A Scafatese2-0

Audace Cerignola

DLWWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 2L
19 Sep 2026H Casertana0-0
15 Sep 2026A Casarano0-1
11 Sep 2026H Giugliano4-0
06 Sep 2026A Foggia2-0
28 Aug 2026A Cavese1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 75% vs implied 65% · edge +10.1 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Load more odds for this section
Audace Cerignola Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Audace Cerignola to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3
Check odds @ 3
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
AZ Picerno to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
AZ Picerno Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
AZ Picerno has accumulated 6 points recently with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, indicating open matches. Audace Cerignola's 7 points with 1.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game show a more defensive solidity but still some attacking threat. This contrast supports a game with goal opportunities and potential Over 2.5 Goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Audace Cerignola1063125
8AZ Picerno963032
Both teams sit mid-table with AZ Picerno 8th and Audace Cerignola 5th, separated by just one point. This proximity indicates a competitive match without relegation or promotion pressure, likely encouraging both sides to play proactively to secure valuable points, which can increase goal-scoring chances.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 49% · edge +3.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Audace Cerignola Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Audace Cerignola to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
AZ Picerno to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
AZ Picerno Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced around 2.05 with a of 52%, indicating a slight . The reflect a balanced view, with the market slightly underestimating the probability of a higher-scoring game given AZ Picerno's attacking form and the fixture's open nature.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3AZ Picerno wins
4Draws
1Audace Cerignola wins
03 Jan 2026AZ Picerno v Audace Cerignola1-1
25 Aug 2025Audace Cerignola v AZ Picerno2-2
09 Mar 2025AZ Picerno v Audace Cerignola0-0
26 Oct 2024Audace Cerignola v AZ Picerno2-1
07 Apr 2024AZ Picerno v Audace Cerignola2-1
03 Dec 2023Audace Cerignola v AZ Picerno0-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 49% · edge +3.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Audace Cerignola to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
AZ Picerno to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
The head-to-head record over eight matches shows an average of 2.13 goals per game, indicating neither side dominates defensively. This balanced historical scoring supports the expectation of a competitive match with multiple goals, aligning well with the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
Season team stats

Serie C - Girone C

AZ Picerno6
Played
Audace Cerignola6
AZ Picerno2
Avg goals for
Audace Cerignola1.7
AZ Picerno1.7
Avg goals against
Audace Cerignola0.8
AZ Picerno1
Clean sheets
Audace Cerignola3
Best odds for this sectionAudace Cerignola Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 47% · edge +9.6 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Audace Cerignola to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
3
Check odds @ 3
AZ Picerno to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
AZ Picerno Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Season-long data shows AZ Picerno participates in 60% Over 2.5 Goals matches, reflecting an attacking style prone to conceding. Audace Cerignola's lower Over 2.5 rate at 40% and strong defensive record of 0.8 goals against per game suggest a more cautious approach, but combined, the fixture leans towards a moderately high-scoring encounter.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%AZ Picerno Over 2.5
40%Audace Cerignola Over 2.5
2.13H2H avg goals
The last eight head-to-head matches average 2.13 goals per game, showing a trend towards moderately scoring games. This sample suggests a tempo that balances attacking efforts with defensive caution, supporting the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals but not an excessively high-scoring affair.

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Fixture links

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