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Croatia crestCroatia
v
Ghana crestGhana

World Cup | Sat 27 Jun, 22:00

Croatia v Ghana Stats

Data last updated: Sun 28 Jun 2026, 06:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Croatia face Ghana in World Cup on Sat 27 Jun, 22:00. Croatia meet Ghana on Saturday, 27 June, at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia in a Group L finale that already feels like a knockout match wearing group-stage clothes.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Croatia Win

  • At 6/10, Croatia Win implies roughly 63%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 36%.
  • Ghana have produced zero goals conceded across two games, executing a highly efficient defensive plan under immense pressure.
  • Ghana have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Croatia.
  • Ghana have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Croatia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Croatia Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 63% while the model sits nearer 36% (-26.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Ghana Draw No Bet shows a +24.2 pts edge at 3.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 36% for Croatia Win sits against roughly 63% implied by the current price. Ghana have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Croatia. Ghana have produced zero goals conceded across two games, executing a highly efficient defensive plan under immense pressure.

Model chance vs price36% model chance against roughly 63% implied
Negative
Ghana have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Ghana have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Ghana have produced zero goals conceded across two games.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Croatia Win is the preferred angle because ghana have produced zero goals conceded across two games, executing a highly efficient defensive plan under immense pressure. Ghana have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Croatia. Even defeat would not necessarily end their tournament hopes, but that is not the mindset they will want.

Main risk

Even defeat would not necessarily end their tournament hopes, but that is not the mindset they will want.

Key Data Signals

Croatia Win evidence

Ghana have produced zero goals conceded across two games, executing a highly efficient defensive plan under immense pressure.

Ghana have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Croatia.

Ghana have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Croatia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Croatia Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Croatia2
    Avg corners for
    Ghana2
    Croatia9.5
    Avg total corners
    Ghana7.5
    Croatia0.5
    Avg yellow cards
    Ghana1
    Croatia8
    Avg shots
    Ghana5
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +13.7 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 67%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Croatia1.5
    Avg goals scored
    Ghana0.5
    Croatia2
    Avg goals conceded
    Ghana0
    Croatia50%
    BTTS rate
    Ghana0%
    Croatia50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Ghana0%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 62% · edge +4.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 50% for Croatia and 0% for Ghana, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCroatia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 36% vs implied 57% · edge -20.8 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 67%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Croatia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Croatia to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Croatia

    WL
    Last 51W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 1L
    24 Jun 2026A Panama1-0
    17 Jun 2026A England2-4

    Ghana

    DW
    Last 51W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 0L
    23 Jun 2026A England0-0
    18 Jun 2026H Panama1-0
    Market aligned with main pickCroatia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 36% vs implied 57% · edge -20.8 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Croatia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Croatia wins
    0Draws
    0Ghana wins
    Market aligned with main pickCroatia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 36% vs implied 57% · edge -20.8 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Croatia to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Croatia2
    Played
    Ghana2
    Croatia1.5
    Avg goals for
    Ghana0.5
    Croatia2
    Avg goals against
    Ghana0
    Croatia1
    Clean sheets
    Ghana2
    Market aligned with main pickCroatia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 36% vs implied 57% · edge -20.8 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Croatia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Season data supports Croatia to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Croatia632010
    3Ghana431110
    2Croatia632010
    3Ghana431110
    3Ghana431110
    3Ghana431110
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Croatia Over 2.5
    0%Ghana Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Croatia sit at 50% and Ghana sit at 0%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Croatia v Ghana prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

    World Cup hubWorld Cup hubCroatia v Ghana predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hub

    Next step

    Betting context

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