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Como crestComo
v
AS Roma crestAS Roma

Serie A | Sun 11 Oct, 11:30

Como v AS Roma Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 12:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AS Roma visit Como in a Serie A clash where the visitors lead the standings and bring strong recent form, having accumulated 13 points with a potent attack averaging 2.8 goals per game. Como, sitting eighth with 10 points, have shown resilience but face a tough challenge against Roma's efficient defense conceding just 0.6 goals per match. Roma's tactical discipline and attacking depth position them as favorites, though Como's home performances and ability to create chances suggest a competitive encounter with potential for goals.

BT4Y best bet

AS Roma to Win

  • AS Roma top Serie A standings with 13 points, showing strong form.
  • Roma average 2.8 goals scored per game, indicating attacking strength.
  • Como have a solid home record with 10 points and 1.8 goals scored on average.
  • Roma concede only 0.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive solidity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors AS Roma to win with a 64.2% chance, reflecting their superior scoring rate and defensive record compared to Como. Roma's consistent form and league leadership underpin this . The offer positive value given the implied chance is only 38.5%, making Roma a strong pick. No data limitations affect , and the tactical setup suggests Roma's attacking efficiency will be decisive.

Model Win Probability64.2%
Strong positive
Roma Goals For per Game2.8
Strong positive
Roma Goals Against per Game0.6
Strong positive
Como Goals For per Game1.8
Neutral
Como Goals Against per Game1.2
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

AS Roma's tactical discipline and attacking firepower make them strong favorites to secure victory against Como. Their league-leading form and defensive strength provide a solid foundation, while Como's ability to create chances suggests Roma must maintain focus to avoid surprises.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“AS Roma's blend of attacking efficiency and defensive stability positions them well to overcome Como's spirited home challenge in this Serie A fixture.”

Key Data Signals

AS Roma to Win evidence

AS Roma top Serie A standings with 13 points, showing strong form.

Roma average 2.8 goals scored per game, indicating attacking strength.

Como have a solid home record with 10 points and 1.8 goals scored on average.

Roma concede only 0.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive solidity.

What To Watch In The Data

AS Roma to Win notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.25, indicating moderately open games.
  • Both teams have shown tendencies for over 2.5 goals in recent matches (Como 60%, Roma 80%), suggesting a likelihood of multiple goals.
  • The trend points to a game with attacking intent and potential for goal-scoring opportunities from both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Como1.8
Avg goals scored
AS Roma2.8
Como1.2
Avg goals conceded
AS Roma0.6
Como80%
BTTS rate
AS Roma40%
Como60%
Over 2.5 goals
AS Roma80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 65% · edge +7.9 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have shown contrasting BTTS rates: Como at 80% and Roma at 40%, suggesting a mixed likelihood of both teams scoring. However, with Roma's strong attack and Como's moderate defensive record, goals are expected, supported by high over 2.5 goals rates (Como 60%, Roma 80%). This points to an open game with scoring opportunities, though Roma's defense may limit Como's success.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAS Roma to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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AS Roma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 53.5% for AS Roma to Win sits against roughly 38.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). AS Roma have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Como.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Como

LWWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 1L
20 Sep 2026A Frosinone0-2
14 Sep 2026H Parma2-1
04 Sep 2026A Genoa4-1
30 Aug 2026A Napoli2-1
22 Aug 2026A Udinese1-1

AS Roma

DWWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 0L
19 Sep 2026H Inter2-2
14 Sep 2026A Torino2-0
05 Sep 2026H Atalanta2-1
31 Aug 2026A Lecce4-0
24 Aug 2026H Fiorentina4-0
Market aligned with main pickAS Roma to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
AS Roma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Roma's recent form is strong, accumulating 13 points with a high goal-scoring rate of 2.8 per game and conceding only 0.6 goals, reflecting both offensive potency and defensive resilience. Como's form is solid but less prolific, with 10 points and 1.8 goals per game. This contrast in momentum favors Roma to maintain their winning trajectory in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Como Over 2.5
80%AS Roma Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.25, indicating moderately open games. Both teams have shown tendencies for over 2.5 goals in recent matches (Como 60%, Roma 80%), suggesting a likelihood of multiple goals. The trend points to a game with attacking intent and potential for goal-scoring opportunities from both sides.

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