Football Stats Hub

Colombia crestColombia
v
Portugal crestPortugal

World Cup | Sun 28 Jun, 00:30

Colombia v Portugal Stats

Data last updated: Sun 28 Jun 2026, 08:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Colombia face Portugal in World Cup on Sun 28 Jun, 00:30. Group K’s Top-Spot Tension Comes To Miami. However, Colombia are on a four-match winning run and possess a balanced attacking unit averaging over two goals per game. Tactical preview, form guide and key match stats.

BT4Y best bet

Rationale: 1 - 1 Draw The specific tournament situation creates an environment where a 1-1 draw is highly plausible

  • At 6/1, Colombia Win implies roughly 14%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 44%.
  • Colombia’s recent overall numbers include 17 goals in eight matches, an average of 2.13 per game, with nine conceded at 1.13 per match.
  • Colombia have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Portugal.
  • Colombia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Colombia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 44% for Colombia Win sits against roughly 14% implied by the current price. Colombia have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Portugal. Colombia’s recent overall numbers include that scoring level in eight matches, an average of 2.13 per game, with nine conceded at 1.13 per match.

Model chance vs price44% model chance against roughly 14% implied
Strong positive
Colombia have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Colombia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Colombia’s recent overall numbers include 17 goals in eight.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Colombia Win is the preferred angle because colombia’s recent overall numbers include that scoring level in eight matches, an average of 2.13 per game, with nine conceded at 1.13 per match. Colombia have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Portugal. They are not as pass-heavy as Portugal, but they are not playing hopeful football either.

Main risk

They are not as pass-heavy as Portugal, but they are not playing hopeful football either.

Key Data Signals

Colombia Win evidence

Colombia’s recent overall numbers include 17 goals in eight matches, an average of 2.

Colombia have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Portugal.

Colombia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Colombia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Colombia Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Colombia4.5
    Avg corners for
    Portugal5
    Colombia8
    Avg total corners
    Portugal9
    Colombia1.5
    Avg yellow cards
    Portugal3
    Colombia17.5
    Avg shots
    Portugal7
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 46% · edge +21.8 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Colombia2
    Avg goals scored
    Portugal3
    Colombia0.5
    Avg goals conceded
    Portugal0.5
    Colombia50%
    BTTS rate
    Portugal50%
    Colombia50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Portugal50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
    3.2
    Check odds @ 3.2
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 25% · edge +18.8 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 67%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Colombia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
    2.68
    Check odds @ 2.68
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Colombia to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Colombia

    WW
    Last 52W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 0L
    24 Jun 2026H Congo DR1-0
    18 Jun 2026A Uzbekistan3-1

    Portugal

    WD
    Last 51W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 0L
    23 Jun 2026H Uzbekistan5-0
    17 Jun 2026H Congo DR1-1
    Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 25% · edge +18.8 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Colombia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
    2.68
    Check odds @ 2.68
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Colombia wins
    0Draws
    0Portugal wins
    Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 25% · edge +18.8 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Colombia to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Colombia3
    Played
    Portugal3
    Colombia1.3
    Avg goals for
    Portugal2
    Colombia0.3
    Avg goals against
    Portugal0.3
    Colombia2
    Clean sheets
    Portugal2
    Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 25% · edge +18.8 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    Colombia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
    2.68
    Check odds @ 2.68
    Season data supports Colombia to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Colombia732103
    2Portugal531205
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Colombia Over 2.5
    50%Portugal Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Colombia sit at 50% and Portugal sit at 50%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.