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Cheltenham crestCheltenham

League Two | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

Colchester v Cheltenham Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Colchester hosts Cheltenham in a League Two clash where both teams have shown attacking intent this season. Cheltenham, sitting fourth, have been prolific in front of goal, averaging 2.2 goals per game and boasting a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate. Colchester, mid-table, have a more modest scoring record but remain competitive with a 40% Over 2.5 rate. Both sides have conceded regularly, suggesting an open game with goal-scoring opportunities. The fixture promises a lively contest with Cheltenham's attacking prowess likely to test Colchester's defense at home.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Cheltenham averages 2.2 goals per game with a 100% Over 2.5 rate this season
  • Colchester has conceded 1.4 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
  • Both teams have a combined BTTS rate of 80%, supporting goal-scoring chances
  • Recent form shows Cheltenham's strong offensive output with multiple shots on target per game
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.2 over the last 10 matches, indicating goal-rich encounters

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 2.5 Goals with a 65.3% probability, reflecting both teams' attacking tendencies and defensive lapses. Cheltenham's perfect Over 2.5 record and Colchester's willingness to concede create a fertile environment for goals. The average of 2.2 goals in their recent head-to-head further supports this outlook. The current of 1.75 offer positive value against the implied 57.1% chance, making this a compelling selection for bettors seeking an open, goal-filled match.

Cheltenham's scoring rate2.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Colchester's goals conceded1.4 per game
Positive
Head-to-head average goals2.2 over last 10 matches
Positive
Model probability65.3% for Over 2.5
Strong positive
Market value edge8.2% positive
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Cheltenham's attacking quality likely to challenge Colchester's defense. The data supports a lively match with multiple goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a sensible choice based on both teams' offensive output and recent scoring trends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match goal-scoring potential

“Cheltenham's consistent goal threat combined with Colchester's defensive openness sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The statistical signals align well with an Over 2.5 Goals outcome in this League Two fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Cheltenham averages 2.2 goals per game with a 100% Over 2.5 rate this season

Colchester has conceded 1.4 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities

Both teams have a combined BTTS rate of 80%, supporting goal-scoring chances

Recent form shows Cheltenham's strong offensive output with multiple shots on target per game

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, indicating a history of moderately high-scoring games between these sides.
  • Cheltenham's 100% Over 2.5 rate this season and Colchester's openness in defense suggest the trend for goals will continue in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Colchester1
Avg goals scored
Cheltenham2.2
Colchester1.4
Avg goals conceded
Cheltenham1.8
Colchester60%
BTTS rate
Cheltenham100%
Colchester40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cheltenham100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 57% · edge +8.2 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 83%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown a strong inclination towards scoring and conceding goals, with Cheltenham's 100% Over 2.5 rate and Colchester's 60% BTTS rate. The combined attacking and defensive profiles indicate a match likely to feature multiple goals and both teams scoring, supported by an average of 2.2 goals in their recent meetings.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 57% · edge +8.2 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Cheltenham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Cheltenham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Colchester Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Colchester to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 1.75, reflecting a positive of 8.2% compared to the model's 65.3% probability. This suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a goal-rich game, making the selection a favorable betting angle without significant price sensitivity.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Colchester4.4
Avg corners for
Cheltenham3.8
Colchester7.4
Avg total corners
Cheltenham10.2
Colchester0.8
Avg yellow cards
Cheltenham1.6
Colchester15
Avg shots
Cheltenham10.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 50% vs implied 52% · edge -2.3 pts
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Colchester averages 5 corners per game and Cheltenham 4, indicating reasonable attacking pressure and set-piece opportunities. Cheltenham's higher average of 1.67 yellow cards per game suggests a competitive, possibly physical match, which could lead to more set-piece chances and shots on target, enhancing goal-scoring possibilities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Colchester

DLLWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 2L
12 Sep 2026H Crewe1-1
05 Sep 2026A Swindon Town1-3
01 Sep 2026A Bristol Rovers0-2
29 Aug 2026H Rochdale1-0
22 Aug 2026H Oldham2-1

Cheltenham

WDWDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 1L
12 Sep 2026A Crawley Town3-1
05 Sep 2026H Grimsby2-2
01 Sep 2026H York3-2
29 Aug 2026A Barnet2-2
22 Aug 2026A Swindon Town1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Cheltenham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Cheltenham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Colchester Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Colchester to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Cheltenham's recent form shows a strong offensive output with an average of 2.2 goals per game and a perfect Over 2.5 Goals record, reflecting consistent goal-scoring ability. Colchester's form is less prolific but still competitive, with a 40% Over 2.5 rate and 60% BTTS rate, suggesting openness to conceding and scoring in recent matches.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Colchester wins
2Draws
4Cheltenham wins
02 May 2026Cheltenham v Colchester1-4
29 Nov 2025Colchester v Cheltenham2-0
08 Mar 2025Cheltenham v Colchester0-1
14 Jan 2025Cheltenham v Colchester2-1
19 Oct 2024Colchester v Cheltenham1-2
24 Apr 2021Cheltenham v Colchester1-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 57% · edge +8.2 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Cheltenham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Colchester to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The 10 previous meetings between Colchester and Cheltenham have averaged 2.2 goals per game, showing a tendency for matches to feature multiple goals. While not overwhelmingly high, this average supports the potential for an Over 2.5 Goals outcome, especially considering current attacking forms.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League Two

Colchester6
Played
Cheltenham6
Colchester1.2
Avg goals for
Cheltenham2.2
Colchester1.5
Avg goals against
Cheltenham1.7
Colchester1
Clean sheets
Cheltenham0
Best odds for this sectionCheltenham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Cheltenham to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Colchester Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Colchester to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Season-long statistics reveal Cheltenham as a high-scoring team with 2.2 goals per game and a solid attacking profile. Colchester's defensive record of conceding 1.4 goals per game highlights vulnerabilities that Cheltenham can exploit. These figures underpin the likelihood of a match featuring three or more goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Cheltenham1163213
13Colchester86222-2
Cheltenham's position near the top of the League Two table reflects their strong attacking form and consistency, while Colchester's mid-table standing suggests a more balanced but less dominant approach. The standings support the expectation of Cheltenham pushing for goals, increasing the chance of an Over 2.5 Goals outcome.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Colchester Over 2.5
100%Cheltenham Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, indicating a history of moderately high-scoring games between these sides. Cheltenham's 100% Over 2.5 rate this season and Colchester's openness in defense suggest the trend for goals will continue in this fixture.

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