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Rochdale crestRochdale
v
Oldham crestOldham

League Two | Sat 19 Sep, 12:30

Rochdale v Oldham Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Rochdale face Oldham in League Two on Sat 19 Sep, 12:30. Rochdale come in with 4 recent points and 1 goals per match, while Oldham have 4 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Rochdale to Win

  • At 3.75, Rochdale to Win implies roughly 27%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 42%.
  • Rochdale have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Rochdale to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Rochdale sit 24 in the table, while Oldham sit 14, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 42% for Rochdale to Win sits against roughly 27% implied by the current price. Rochdale have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Rochdale to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Model chance vs price42% model chance against roughly 27% implied
Positive
Rochdale have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Rochdale sit 24 in the table, while Oldham sit 14.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Rochdale Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Rochdale have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Rochdale Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Rochdale to Win evidence

Rochdale have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Rochdale Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Rochdale sit 24 in the table, while Oldham sit 14, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Rochdale to Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Rochdale3.8
    Avg corners for
    Oldham6.2
    Rochdale8.6
    Avg total corners
    Oldham11.2
    Rochdale2
    Avg yellow cards
    Oldham1.8
    Rochdale8.2
    Avg shots
    Oldham14.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 50% · edge +8.6 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    League Two fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Rochdale1
    Avg goals scored
    Oldham1.2
    Rochdale1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Oldham1.4
    Rochdale40%
    BTTS rate
    Oldham60%
    Rochdale60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Oldham60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 60% · edge +3.4 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 37%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 40% for Rochdale and 60% for Oldham, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickRochdale to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +14.8 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Rochdale Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Rochdale to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Rochdale

    DLWLL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 4L
    12 Sep 2026A Walsall0-0
    05 Sep 2026H Gillingham1-4
    01 Sep 2026H Shrewsbury3-0
    29 Aug 2026A Colchester0-1
    22 Aug 2026H Crawley Town1-2

    Oldham

    LLDWL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 3L
    12 Sep 2026H Chesterfield1-2
    05 Sep 2026A Tranmere0-2
    01 Sep 2026A Fleetwood Town1-1
    29 Aug 2026H Swindon Town3-0
    22 Aug 2026A Colchester1-2
    Market aligned with main pickRochdale to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +14.8 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Rochdale Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Rochdale wins
    5Draws
    4Oldham wins
    15 Mar 2025Oldham v Rochdale1-1
    04 Feb 2025Rochdale v Oldham0-1
    06 Apr 2024Oldham v Rochdale1-1
    21 Oct 2023Rochdale v Oldham3-4
    29 Jan 2022Oldham v Rochdale0-0
    25 Sep 2021Rochdale v Oldham0-1
    Market aligned with main pickRochdale to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +14.8 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Rochdale to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    League Two

    Rochdale6
    Played
    Oldham6
    Rochdale0.8
    Avg goals for
    Oldham1.3
    Rochdale1.7
    Avg goals against
    Oldham1.2
    Rochdale2
    Clean sheets
    Oldham2
    Market aligned with main pickRochdale to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +14.8 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Rochdale Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Season data supports Rochdale to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    14Oldham762131
    24Rochdale46114-5
    Rochdale sit in position 24, while Oldham sit in position 14, so table pressure belongs in the Rochdale to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Rochdale Over 2.5
    60%Oldham Over 2.5
    2.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Rochdale sit at 60% and Oldham sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

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