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Club Queretaro crestClub Queretaro
v
Leon crestLeon

Liga MX | Mon 21 Sep, 03:10

Club Queretaro v Leon Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 08:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Club Queretaro and Leon face off in a Liga MX fixture where both teams exhibit moderate scoring rates and balanced defensive records. Recent form data shows each side averaging around 1.6 goals per game while conceding one goal on average, suggesting a tactical battle with controlled tempo. Both teams have similar points tallies and over 2.5 goals occurrence rates, indicating potential for a measured game rather than an open, high-scoring encounter. This match is likely to feature disciplined defensive setups and calculated attacking efforts, making goal volume a key focus.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average 1.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Club Queretaro and Leon have over 2.5 goals rates of 60% and 40% respectively, showing mixed goal trends.
  • Recent form points are equal at 10 for both sides, reflecting balanced competitiveness.
  • Average shots on target per game are 3.75 for Club Queretaro and 5.8 for Leon, suggesting moderate attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Under 2.5 Goals pick is supported by both teams' consistent defensive solidity and moderate scoring outputs, with each side conceding just one goal per match on average. Despite some over 2.5 goals occurrences, the overall goal expectation remains just above two per game, aligning with a cautious tactical approach. The model sees a positive at of 2.1, reflecting a slightly higher probability of a low-scoring game than the market implies. No data limitations affect , making this a solid, data-backed selection.

Average Goals For1.6 per team per game
Positive
Average Goals Against1.0 per team per game
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateClub Queretaro 60%, Leon 40%
Neutral
Model Value Edge5.8% positive
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a tactical contest with both Club Queretaro and Leon focusing on defensive organization and measured attacking play. The balanced recent form and moderate goal averages suggest a low-scoring match, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible choice. This aligns with the teams' tendencies to limit opponents' chances and maintain structure.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical balance and defensive solidity

“This fixture is poised for a disciplined midfield battle with neither side likely to overcommit forward, supporting a low-scoring outcome. The attacking threats exist but are balanced by solid defensive records, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical angle.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average 1.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, indicating moderate scoring.

Recent form points are equal at 10 for both sides, reflecting balanced competitiveness.

Average shots on target per game are 3.75 for Club Queretaro and 5.8 for Leon, suggesting moderate attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals per game, a moderate scoring rate that supports a balanced goal expectation.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and season stats, suggests a match tempo that can produce goals but is unlikely to exceed two or three, reinforcing the low-scoring market angle.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Club Queretaro1.6
Avg goals scored
Leon1.6
Club Queretaro1
Avg goals conceded
Leon1
Club Queretaro60%
BTTS rate
Leon60%
Club Queretaro60%
Over 2.5 goals
Leon40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 49% · edge +4.6 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 33%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams score and concede at moderate rates, with Club Queretaro and Leon averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per game. BTTS rates stand at 60% for both sides, showing a reasonable chance of both teams scoring but not necessarily high goal totals. The goal trends suggest a match with some scoring but likely under three goals overall.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Club Queretaro

WWLDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 2L
12 Sep 2026A Club Tijuana1-0
30 Aug 2026A Atlas3-1
22 Aug 2026H Toluca1-2
16 Aug 2026A U.N.A.M. - Pumas0-0
02 Aug 2026H Tigres UANL3-2

Leon

WLDWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 3L
15 Sep 2026H Atletico San Luis2-0
11 Sep 2026A U.N.A.M. - Pumas1-3
29 Aug 2026A Atlante FC1-1
22 Aug 2026H Monterrey2-0
18 Aug 2026A Necaxa2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 67% · edge +4.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Club Queretaro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Club Queretaro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Leon to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Leon Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form data shows both teams earning 10 points with similar goal scoring and conceding patterns, reinforcing a balanced contest. Club Queretaro’s 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Leon’s 40%, but the overall trend supports a cautious game with under three goals likely. This recent output aligns well with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Club Queretaro1374123
Club Queretaro sits 8th with 13 points, indicating mid-table stability, while Leon’s exact rank is unavailable but points data suggests similar competitiveness. The standings imply neither team faces urgent pressure to chase high-scoring wins, favoring a measured approach consistent with Under 2.5 Goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Club Queretaro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Club Queretaro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Leon to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Leon Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 2.1 with a of 53.4%, indicating a small positive . The reflect a cautious market view, slightly underestimating the likelihood of a low-scoring game given the teams' defensive records and goal averages. This price is attractive for standard stakes without requiring movement to justify the bet.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Club Queretaro3.5
Avg corners for
Leon3
Club Queretaro12
Avg total corners
Leon9.5
Club Queretaro4.5
Avg yellow cards
Leon1
Club Queretaro11.5
Avg shots
Leon11.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Shot data shows Leon averaging 15 shots and 5.8 on target per game, while Club Queretaro averages 11.5 shots and 3.75 on target, indicating moderate attacking pressure. Corner counts are balanced around 3.4 per team, reflecting neither side dominates wide play excessively. Card averages differ, with Club Queretaro receiving more yellows, suggesting a slightly more physical approach that could disrupt attacking flow.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Club Queretaro wins
3Draws
5Leon wins
07 Feb 2026Club Queretaro v Leon2-0
31 Aug 2025Leon v Club Queretaro3-0
05 Apr 2025Club Queretaro v Leon1-1
27 Oct 2024Leon v Club Queretaro4-0
07 Apr 2024Leon v Club Queretaro0-2
30 Sep 2023Club Queretaro v Leon1-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Club Queretaro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Leon to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The ten previous meetings between Club Queretaro and Leon have produced an average of 2.5 goals per game, indicating a moderate scoring history. While this does not strongly favor a low or high scoring outcome, it provides a useful background that neither team tends to dominate offensively in this fixture, supporting a cautious goal expectation.
Season team stats

Liga MX

Club Queretaro7
Played
Leon0
Club Queretaro1.4
Avg goals for
Leon-
Club Queretaro1
Avg goals against
Leon-
Club Queretaro2
Clean sheets
Leon-
Best odds for this sectionClub Queretaro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 49% · edge +4.7 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Club Queretaro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Leon to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Leon Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Season-long stats reveal both teams maintain solid defensive records, conceding an average of one goal per game. Attack outputs are moderate at 1.6 goals per match, supporting a controlled tempo. These figures underpin the expectation of a match with limited goal-scoring opportunities and a tactical emphasis on defensive structure.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Club Queretaro Over 2.5
40%Leon Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals per game, a moderate scoring rate that supports a balanced goal expectation. This trend, combined with recent form and season stats, suggests a match tempo that can produce goals but is unlikely to exceed two or three, reinforcing the low-scoring market angle.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.