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Club America crestClub America
v
Guadalajara Chivas crestGuadalajara Chivas

Liga MX | Sun 20 Sep, 04:15

Club America v Guadalajara Chivas Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Liga MX clash features Guadalajara Chivas visiting Club America in a high-stakes contest between two top-table rivals. Guadalajara Chivas currently sit second with 17 points, narrowly ahead of Club America in third with 16 points. Both teams have shown strong attacking intent, averaging 2.6 goals scored per game recently, but Chivas have been more resolute defensively, conceding just 0.6 goals per match compared to Club America's 1.0. The match promises tactical intensity and fine margins, with Chivas aiming to leverage their defensive solidity and efficient attack to secure a vital away win.

BT4Y best bet

Guadalajara Chivas to Win

  • Guadalajara Chivas lead the standings with 17 points, just ahead of Club America on 16 points.
  • Both teams average 2.6 goals scored per game recently, indicating attacking potency.
  • Chivas concede fewer goals per game (0.6) compared to Club America (1.0), showing defensive strength.
  • Chivas have a model-implied win chance of 47.2%, above the market , indicating value.
  • Recent form favors Chivas slightly with 13 points versus Club America's 12 in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Guadalajara Chivas to win based on their superior defensive record and slightly better recent form, despite similar attacking output from both sides. Chivas' ability to concede only 0.6 goals per game compared to Club America's 1.0 suggests a more robust defensive setup. The implied chance of 47.2% exceeds the market's 39.2%, indicating positive value. This pick is supported by consistent form and defensive discipline, making it a strong football read without price warnings or data limitations.

Model Win Probability47.2%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance39.2%
Positive
Recent Defensive FormChivas concede 0.6 goals/game vs Club America's 1.0
Strong positive
Recent PointsChivas 13 vs Club America 12
Positive
Data QualityComplete data for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Guadalajara Chivas' defensive resilience and slightly better recent form underpin this away win recommendation. Their ability to limit goals conceded contrasts with Club America's more porous defense, giving Chivas a tactical edge in this tight Liga MX encounter. The data supports a confident call for Chivas to secure all three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Guadalajara Chivas' disciplined defense and efficient attack make them a compelling pick to overcome Club America in this crucial Liga MX fixture, especially given their superior recent form and defensive stats.”

Key Data Signals

Guadalajara Chivas to Win evidence

Guadalajara Chivas lead the standings with 17 points, just ahead of Club America on 16 points.

Both teams average 2.6 goals scored per game recently, indicating attacking potency.

Chivas concede fewer goals per game (0.6) compared to Club America (1.0), showing defensive strength.

Chivas have a model-implied win chance of 47.2%, above the market , indicating value.

What To Watch In The Data

Guadalajara Chivas to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.5 per game, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • Recent matches show a trend towards under 2.5 goals, suggesting a tactical, cautious approach that aligns with Chivas' defensive strengths.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Club America7.33
Avg corners for
Guadalajara Chivas7
Club America13.67
Avg total corners
Guadalajara Chivas13.5
Club America1.33
Avg yellow cards
Guadalajara Chivas0
Club America25.33
Avg shots
Guadalajara Chivas12
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Club America averages more shots (20.75) and shots on target (8) than Chivas (11 shots, 6 on target), reflecting their attacking pressure. Corner counts are similar, but Chivas accumulate more fouls and cards, indicating a physical defensive approach that could disrupt Club America's rhythm.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Club America2.6
Avg goals scored
Guadalajara Chivas2.6
Club America1
Avg goals conceded
Guadalajara Chivas0.6
Club America40%
BTTS rate
Guadalajara Chivas40%
Club America80%
Over 2.5 goals
Guadalajara Chivas60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 49% · edge +4.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams average 2.6 goals scored recently, but only 40% of their matches see both teams scoring, indicating a tendency for one-sided scoring. Chivas' stronger defense contributes to fewer goals conceded, suggesting a match with goals but possibly not both teams scoring.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGuadalajara Chivas to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 39% · edge +8 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Guadalajara Chivas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The market price for Guadalajara Chivas to win offers clear value, with the model estimating a 47.2% chance against an implied 39.2%. This positive suggests the underestimate Chivas' likelihood of victory, making the bet attractive at current prices.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Club America

LWWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 1L
13 Sep 2026A Cruz Azul3-4
30 Aug 2026H Puebla2-0
22 Aug 2026A FC Juarez2-1
17 Aug 2026H Atletico San Luis3-0
03 Aug 2026H Santos Laguna3-0

Guadalajara Chivas

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 1L
14 Sep 2026H U.N.A.M. - Pumas3-0
06 Sep 2026A Atletico San Luis3-0
30 Aug 2026A CF Pachuca1-1
23 Aug 2026H Club Tijuana5-2
17 Aug 2026A Santos Laguna1-0
Market aligned with main pickGuadalajara Chivas to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 39% · edge +8 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Guadalajara Chivas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Recent form slightly favors Guadalajara Chivas, who have collected 13 points compared to Club America's 12 in recent matches. Both teams maintain strong scoring rates, but Chivas' tighter defense has been key to securing more points, reflecting momentum heading into this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Club America wins
3Draws
3Guadalajara Chivas wins
15 Feb 2026Guadalajara Chivas v Club America1-0
12 Oct 2025Club America v Guadalajara Chivas1-1
14 Sep 2025Club America v Guadalajara Chivas1-2
13 Mar 2025Club America v Guadalajara Chivas4-0
09 Mar 2025Guadalajara Chivas v Club America0-0
06 Mar 2025Guadalajara Chivas v Club America1-0
Market aligned with main pickGuadalajara Chivas to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 39% · edge +8 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The head-to-head record over the last ten matches shows an average of 1.5 goals per game, reflecting tight contests with limited scoring. This supports the view of a closely fought match where defensive organization, particularly from Guadalajara Chivas, plays a crucial role.
Season team stats

Liga MX

Club America7
Played
Guadalajara Chivas8
Club America2.1
Avg goals for
Guadalajara Chivas1.9
Club America0.9
Avg goals against
Guadalajara Chivas0.8
Club America4
Clean sheets
Guadalajara Chivas4
Market aligned with main pickGuadalajara Chivas to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 39% · edge +8 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Guadalajara Chivas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over the season, Guadalajara Chivas have demonstrated a solid defensive record, conceding fewer goals per game than Club America. Both teams maintain high attacking output, but Chivas' defensive discipline underpins their ability to control matches and limit opponents' chances.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Guadalajara Chivas1785219
3Club America1675119
The tight league standings with Chivas second and Club America third add significant pressure and importance to this fixture. Both teams are vying for top positions, making this a pivotal match that could influence the title race and playoff positioning.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Club America Over 2.5
60%Guadalajara Chivas Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.5 per game, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. Recent matches show a trend towards under 2.5 goals, suggesting a tactical, cautious approach that aligns with Chivas' defensive strengths.

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