Football Stats Hub

Toluca crestToluca
v
Santos Laguna crestSantos Laguna

Liga MX | Mon 21 Sep, 01:00

Toluca v Santos Laguna Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 08:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toluca leads Liga MX with strong recent form, boasting 19 points and a potent attack averaging 2.4 goals per game. Santos Laguna, struggling in 17th place with just 4 points, face an uphill battle but have shown resilience in defense, conceding 1.2 goals per match. Toluca's offensive pressure contrasts with Santos Laguna's need for tactical discipline and counterattacks. This match tests Santos Laguna's ability to withstand early pressure and exploit transitions, with both teams motivated by league positioning and form disparities.

BT4Y best bet

Santos Laguna Draw No Bet

  • Santos Laguna offers 5.25 on Draw No Bet with a 23% .
  • Toluca tops the league with 19 points; Santos Laguna ranks 17th with 4 points.
  • Toluca averages 2.4 goals per game; Santos Laguna scores 0.8, conceding 1.2.
  • Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating controlled scoring chances.
  • Toluca averages 16 shots and 4.8 on target; Santos Laguna averages 14 shots and 3.8 on target.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies strong value in Santos Laguna Draw No Bet at 5.25 , reflecting a 42% versus a 19% implied market chance. Despite Santos Laguna's low league position, their defensive resilience and potential to avoid defeat against league leaders Toluca create an attractive risk-reward scenario. The model at 68% supports this selection, highlighting the possibility of a draw or narrow away win amid Toluca's offensive control and Santos Laguna's tactical counterplay. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance42%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance19%
Strong positive
Value Edge23%
Strong positive
Confidence Level68%
Positive
Price WarningNo warning required
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Santos Laguna's defensive discipline and ability to frustrate opponents make the Draw No Bet a sensible choice against league leaders Toluca. Toluca's attacking firepower is impressive, but Santos Laguna's resilience and tactical setup provide a solid foundation to avoid defeat, justifying in this cautious away-side selection.

Main risk

Recent results make that gap look substantial, but the more revealing detail is where both sides have done their best and worst work.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form balance

“Santos Laguna's defensive solidity and tactical discipline offer a compelling case for Draw No Bet against a dominant Toluca side, balancing risk with potential reward in this Liga MX clash.”

Key Data Signals

Santos Laguna Draw No Bet evidence

Santos Laguna offers 5.25 on Draw No Bet with a 23% .

Toluca tops the league with 19 points; Santos Laguna ranks 17th with 4 points.

Toluca averages 2.4 goals per game; Santos Laguna scores 0.8, conceding 1.2.

Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating controlled scoring chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Santos Laguna Draw No Bet notes

  • The last 10 meetings average 3.8 goals per game, indicating a historically open fixture with multiple scoring opportunities.
  • Recent trends suggest a tempo favoring over 2.5 goals, driven by Toluca's attacking style and Santos Laguna's occasional defensive lapses, though current form may temper expectations for a high-scoring match.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Toluca5.8
Avg corners for
Santos Laguna8.2
Toluca12
Avg total corners
Santos Laguna14.2
Toluca1.2
Avg yellow cards
Santos Laguna2.2
Toluca16
Avg shots
Santos Laguna14

No priced odds are available for this section yet.

Check odds

Continue the research

Useful next reads

full betting preview for Toluca v Santos Lagunacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toluca2.4
Avg goals scored
Santos Laguna0.8
Toluca0.6
Avg goals conceded
Santos Laguna1.2
Toluca40%
BTTS rate
Santos Laguna40%
Toluca60%
Over 2.5 goals
Santos Laguna40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 49% · edge +1.9 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating a moderate likelihood of controlled scoring. Toluca's high scoring average contrasts with Santos Laguna's lower output, suggesting goals may be limited and controlled, supporting a cautious approach to goal markets in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSantos Laguna Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Load more odds for this section
Santos Laguna to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The Santos Laguna Draw No Bet market shows significant value at 5.25 , with the model assigning a 42% chance compared to the 19% implied by the price. This discrepancy highlights a price-sensitive opportunity, reflecting market underestimation of Santos Laguna's ability to avoid defeat despite their league position.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toluca

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 1L
16 Sep 2026A Puebla1-0
13 Sep 2026H Atlas5-2
31 Aug 2026H FC Juarez4-0
22 Aug 2026A Club Queretaro2-1
16 Aug 2026A Atlante FC0-0

Santos Laguna

WLDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 6L
14 Sep 2026H FC Juarez2-1
07 Sep 2026A Cruz Azul0-1
30 Aug 2026H Tigres UANL0-0
23 Aug 2026A Puebla2-3
17 Aug 2026H Guadalajara Chivas0-1
Market aligned with main pickSantos Laguna Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Load more odds for this section
Santos Laguna to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
Toluca's recent form is strong with 13 points and a 2.4 goals per game average, reflecting consistent offensive output. Santos Laguna's 4 points and 0.8 goals per game show struggles but also defensive resilience, suggesting they can remain competitive and avoid defeat despite form gaps.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

8Toluca wins
0Draws
2Santos Laguna wins
15 Jan 2026Toluca v Santos Laguna3-1
17 Jul 2025Santos Laguna v Toluca2-4
07 Apr 2025Toluca v Santos Laguna2-1
23 Sep 2024Santos Laguna v Toluca2-0
22 Feb 2024Toluca v Santos Laguna1-0
06 Nov 2023Santos Laguna v Toluca3-1
Market aligned with main pickSantos Laguna to WinBet365 guide price · Model 23% vs implied 11% · edge +11.9 pts
9
Check odds @ 9
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 3.8 goals, reflecting open games historically. However, recent tactical adjustments and form differences suggest that while past meetings favored goal-rich encounters, this match may see more controlled play, especially from Santos Laguna aiming to avoid defeat.
Season team stats

Liga MX

Toluca8
Played
Santos Laguna8
Toluca2.3
Avg goals for
Santos Laguna0.8
Toluca0.8
Avg goals against
Santos Laguna1.6
Toluca4
Clean sheets
Santos Laguna1
Market aligned with main pickSantos Laguna Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Load more odds for this section
Santos Laguna to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
Toluca leads Liga MX with 19 points and a robust attack averaging 2.4 goals per match, supported by a solid defense conceding 0.6 goals. Santos Laguna's season stats reveal offensive challenges with 0.8 goals per game and a defense conceding 1.2 goals, underscoring their underdog status but also defensive potential.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Toluca19861112
17Santos Laguna48116-7
Toluca sits atop the Liga MX standings, exerting pressure as title contenders, while Santos Laguna languishes near the bottom, facing relegation concerns. This disparity sets a high-stakes context where Toluca must assert control and Santos Laguna aims to secure vital points or draws to improve their position.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Toluca Over 2.5
40%Santos Laguna Over 2.5
3.8H2H avg goals
The last 10 meetings average 3.8 goals per game, indicating a historically open fixture with multiple scoring opportunities. Recent trends suggest a tempo favoring over 2.5 goals, driven by Toluca's attacking style and Santos Laguna's occasional defensive lapses, though current form may temper expectations for a high-scoring match.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Toluca v Santos Laguna prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Monterrey v Cruz AzulLiga MX · Sun 20 Sep 02:10Club America v Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX · Sun 20 Sep 04:25CF Pachuca v Club TijuanaLiga MX · Mon 21 Sep 01:00Club Queretaro v LeonLiga MX · Mon 21 Sep 03:10

Competition and hubs

full betting preview for Toluca v Santos Lagunacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre