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Boulogne crestBoulogne

Ligue 2 | Fri 11 Sep, 19:00

Clermont Foot v Boulogne Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ligue 2 fixture between Clermont Foot and Boulogne features two teams closely matched in the league standings, both sitting mid-table with four points each. Clermont Foot have struggled offensively, averaging just 0.6 goals per game, while Boulogne have a slightly more solid defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per match. Boulogne's recent form shows a disciplined defensive approach and a capacity to capitalize on chances, making them a credible threat away from home. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Boulogne's ability to contain Clermont's limited attacking threat and exploit their defensive vulnerabilities.

BT4Y best bet

Boulogne to Win

  • Boulogne holds a 41.5% to win, offering positive value at 3.2 .
  • Clermont Foot averages only 0.6 goals per game, indicating offensive struggles.
  • Boulogne concedes fewer goals on average (0.6) compared to Clermont (1.0), highlighting defensive strength.
  • Boulogne's attackers, including A. Besic, show promising shot and key pass stats.
  • Recent form points to a tight contest, but Boulogne's efficiency and defensive solidity stand out.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Boulogne's chance to win is supported by a combination of solid defensive numbers and effective attacking contributions from key players like A. The model values Boulogne's ability to limit Clermont Foot's low-scoring offense while generating higher shot volumes and key passes. With a 10.2% over the implied , this pick leverages Boulogne's balanced approach and Clermont's offensive limitations. The data quality is strong, with no limitations on team stats, providing in the model's assessment.

Model Win Probability41.5%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance31.3%
Positive
Boulogne Defensive Record0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Clermont Offensive Output0.6 goals per game
Negative
Key Player ContributionsHigh shots and key passes from Boulogne attackers
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Boulogne's disciplined defense and effective attacking players give them a tactical edge in this mid-table clash. Their ability to limit Clermont Foot's already modest goal threat while creating quality chances supports backing Boulogne to win. The data confirms Boulogne's stronger balance between attack and defense, making them the favored side in this encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical edge for Boulogne

“Boulogne's blend of defensive solidity and attacking efficiency makes them a compelling pick here, especially given Clermont Foot's struggles to score. Their key players' involvement in shots and assists underlines their potential to secure an away victory.”

Key Data Signals

Boulogne to Win evidence

Boulogne holds a 41.5% to win, offering positive value at 3.2 .

Clermont Foot averages only 0.6 goals per game, indicating offensive struggles.

Boulogne concedes fewer goals on average (0.6) compared to Clermont (1.0), highlighting defensive strength.

Boulogne's attackers, including A. Besic, show promising shot and key pass stats.

What To Watch In The Data

Boulogne to Win notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.57, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, both teams' current low over 2.5 goals rates (20% and 0%) suggest a trend towards tighter matches with fewer goals, likely influenced by cautious tactics and defensive focus from both sides.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Clermont Foot5.2
Avg corners for
Boulogne3.8
Clermont Foot9.4
Avg total corners
Boulogne8.6
Clermont Foot1
Avg yellow cards
Boulogne2.4
Clermont Foot7.2
Avg shots
Boulogne12.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 55% · edge +1.9 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Clermont Foot averages more corners (5.2) compared to Boulogne's 2.67, indicating more attacking pressure from Clermont. However, Boulogne compensates with a higher shot volume (11 per game) and shots on target (4), reflecting efficient chance creation. Boulogne also accumulates more yellow cards (2.33 vs. 1), suggesting a more physical approach that could disrupt Clermont's rhythm.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Clermont Foot0.6
Avg goals scored
Boulogne0.4
Clermont Foot1
Avg goals conceded
Boulogne0.6
Clermont Foot60%
BTTS rate
Boulogne40%
Clermont Foot20%
Over 2.5 goals
Boulogne0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 48% · edge +5.7 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Both teams have low scoring rates, with Clermont Foot averaging 0.6 goals and Boulogne 0.4. The BTTS rates are moderate, with Clermont at 60% and Boulogne at 40%, suggesting a cautious game with limited goal-scoring opportunities. The low over 2.5 goals rates (20% for Clermont and 0% for Boulogne) further indicate a likely tight, low-scoring match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBoulogne to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 31% · edge +10.2 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Boulogne Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
The for Boulogne to win at 3.2 reflect a market underestimation compared to the model's 41.5% win probability, indicating positive value. This pricing suggests the market may be cautious about Boulogne's away potential, but the model highlights their balanced team performance as a reason to consider the bet with .
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Clermont Foot

DDDLD
Last 50W 4D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 4D 1L
04 Sep 2026A Dunkerque1-1
28 Aug 2026H Sochaux0-0
21 Aug 2026H Dijon1-1
14 Aug 2026A Saint Etienne1-3
08 Aug 2026H Reims0-0

Boulogne

DDDLD
Last 50W 4D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 4D 1L
04 Sep 2026H Dijon1-1
28 Aug 2026A Montpellier0-0
21 Aug 2026H RED Star FC 931-1
14 Aug 2026A Guingamp0-1
08 Aug 2026H Nancy0-0
Market aligned with main pickBoulogne to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 31% · edge +10.2 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Boulogne Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Both teams have earned four points recently, but Boulogne's defensive solidity stands out, conceding only 0.6 goals per game compared to Clermont's 1.0. Boulogne's ability to limit opponents' scoring chances while maintaining a higher shot volume indicates momentum and tactical discipline that favor their chances to win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Clermont Foot wins
3Draws
2Boulogne wins
20 Feb 2026Boulogne v Clermont Foot0-2
05 Dec 2025Clermont Foot v Boulogne1-1
25 May 2025Clermont Foot v Boulogne1-2
20 May 2025Boulogne v Clermont Foot1-3
20 Apr 2012Boulogne v Clermont Foot1-1
17 Dec 2011Clermont Foot v Boulogne1-2
Market aligned with main pickBoulogne to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 31% · edge +10.2 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
The seven previous meetings between Clermont Foot and Boulogne have averaged 2.57 goals per game, indicating a moderate scoring history. While this suggests some attacking potential, the current low scoring form of both teams means past results provide only limited support for expecting a high-scoring or dominant performance by either side.
Season team stats

Ligue 2

Clermont Foot5
Played
Boulogne5
Clermont Foot0.6
Avg goals for
Boulogne0.4
Clermont Foot1
Avg goals against
Boulogne0.6
Clermont Foot2
Clean sheets
Boulogne2
Market aligned with main pickBoulogne to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 31% · edge +10.2 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
Boulogne Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Boulogne's season stats show a strong defensive foundation with only 0.6 goals conceded per game, contrasting with Clermont Foot's higher concession rate of 1.0. Offensively, Boulogne generates more shots and key passes, supporting their capacity to convert chances and secure wins, reinforcing the pick for Boulogne to win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
13Boulogne45041-1
14Clermont Foot45041-2
Both teams are closely ranked in the mid-table positions, each with four points, reflecting a balanced competition. This parity suggests the match will be competitive, but Boulogne's slightly better defensive record and efficient attack offer them a marginal advantage in this league context.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Clermont Foot Over 2.5
0%Boulogne Over 2.5
2.57H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.57, indicating moderate scoring. However, both teams' current low over 2.5 goals rates (20% and 0%) suggest a trend towards tighter matches with fewer goals, likely influenced by cautious tactics and defensive focus from both sides.

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